The question: Will Liverpool finish in the top four?
By Staff
Liverpool beat Burnley on Sunday to increase their Premier League lead over fifth-place Arsenal. But will the Reds finish in the top four?
Liverpool came from behind to beat Burnley 2-1 at Anfield on Sunday. The result leaves them in fourth place, a point behind Manchester City and Tottenham, and five points ahead of Arsenal in fifth. The result was encouraging, but the performance itself suggested the Reds haven’t overcome their struggles against the league’s lesser sides, which leads us to the question: will they finish in the top four?
Reds have the upper hand in race for top four
Peter Johnstone, @9PniJ2
This weekend Liverpool had the opportunity to gain some ground on their fellow top four rivals, Tottenham and Manchester City, who were both playing in the FA Cup. They did just that, triumphing 2-1 over Burnley in what can best be described as a scrappy match. This leaves them five points clear of fifth-place Arsenal and only a point back from Spurs and Manchester City. All of those teams have games in hand on Liverpool but having points on the board always seems to be better in the long run. So, can Jurgen Klopp’s side cement their place in the top four this season and make a return to the Champions League? Going by Sunday’s victory, the answer is yes.
In the reverse fixture, Liverpool battered Burnley at Turf Moor but couldn’t find a way to score and ended up losing 2-0. Sunday, the Reds looked out of sorts defensively and lacked the attacking flair that makes them such an exciting team to watch. Yet they still took all three points.
Klopp admitted his team won ugly but that’s what a top four side needs to do, especially against teams like Burnley that sit deep and try to frustrate. The attitude Liverpool showed against the Clarets shows they’re up for the fight, and will take the race for a top four spot right down to the wire.
A big advantage for Liverpool is that the other top four sides all have other competitions to think about as well. Arsenal and Tottenham are both still involved in the FA Cup, while Manchester City and Manchester United will be aiming to reach the latter stages of their respective European competitions. It may only mean a few more games for each of those teams but as the season goes on, rest periods become more important.
Arsenal’s erratic form is another factor that can’t be ignored. For the first time since the 1998-99 season it looks like the Gunners might miss out on a top four finish due to their inconsistency. In their games against the top four, Arsenal have only beaten Chelsea, and that was before Antonio Conte figured out his winning 3-4-3 formation.
So even though the Gunners have games in hand over Liverpool, there’s no guarantee they’ll win them. Losses and draws against the likes of Watford and Middlesbrough are a testament to that. Klopp will urge his players to concentrate on their own form and nobody else’s but this season it wouldn’t be surprising if Arsenal did them a favor and slipped up a couple more times.
Key players can make or break a team’s season. Liverpool’s key player in the run in will be Sadio Mane. His goals this year have been crucial to Liverpool’s success, and when he was away on international duty at the African Cup of Nations the Reds really struggled. Another key player for Liverpool’s top four hopes is Harry Kane.
The England international hobbled off injured during Spurs’ FA Cup victory over Millwall on Sunday and it looks like he could miss the rest of the season. Nobody enjoys seeing a player getting injured, but there’s no doubt Kane’s absence will make it more difficult for Tottenham to win games, and that should play into Liverpool’s hands. Aside from who’s going to win the title (Chelsea) this has been an extremely exciting Premier League season so far, and Liverpool have what it takes to finish in the top four.
Liverpool’s defensive struggles will cost them
James Dudko, @JamesDudko
Liverpool have Arsenal and Manchester United worried thanks to their five-point cushion in fourth place in the Premier League. The Reds are now firm favourites to secure the final qualification spot for next season’s Champions League, despite the Gunners and Red Devils each having two games in hand.
Frankly, though, this will be as good as it gets for Liverpool and manager Jurgen Klopp. The Anfield club won’t be playing in Europe’s top tournament next season because there’s still a fragility about Klopp’s squad. It’s an underlying weakness existing at both the physical and mental levels.
Liverpool’s physical flaws were obvious during the recent 2-1 win over Burnley at Anfield. It was a victory Klopp’s men had to dig deep to earn, yet while grafting for a result did the Reds credit, they were only forced into a scrap because they couldn’t handle Burnley’s power and threat in the air. In particular, Ashley Barnes was a constant menace against center-backs Joel Matip and Ragnar Klavan, a pair of defenders too often bullied aerially. Liverpool survived the bombardment, but only after Clarets full-back Matthew Lowton wasted a superb chance to equalize in stoppage time after Burnley had won yet another header.
The game against Burnley was far from the first time Liverpool’s defense has been proved vulnerable this season. In fact, the Reds are owners of the leakiest back line in the top six, having conceded four more goals than the next most generous defense.
Klopp’s problem is none of his center-backs are the complete package. Matip reads the game
well, but will be found out aerially, while Klavan’s positional sense is suspect at best. Meanwhile, Dejan Lovren can handle the rough and tumble of England’s top flight, but he’s not quick on the deck and lacks pace on the turn.
Having shaky center-backs play behind a midfield short on brawn and defensive instincts is an obvious recipe for shipping goals in bunches. Klopp doesn’t have the right shield for his back four simply because Liverpool’s midfield is loaded with players who are better going forward and have little inclination for defensive chores.
Emre Can is no holding player. He’s a fetch-and-carry midfielder who needs to tie Liverpool’s game together rather than act as its stabilizing force. Playing Georginio Wijnaldum deep is a complete waste of the Dutchman’s perceptive off-the-ball movement and keen eye for goal. Lucas Leiva has a defensive temperament, but the pace of Klopp’s frenetic and press-crazed style of play is too much for the plodding Brazilian.
Liverpool won’t face the Burnley aerial onslaught every week, although matches against West Brom and a Crystal Palace side led by ex-Reds target man Christian Benteke are sure to cause problems. Klopp’s real headache is how a feeble defense will face more than one prolific Premier League marksman during the final 10 games, with Manchester City’s Sergio Aguero and Everton’s Romelu Lukaku up next.
Of course, a match with City and a derby against the Toffees shouldn’t worry a club used to performing against the big teams this season. At least that’s the popular notion about Liverpool, but the truth is a little trickier to define.
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A common theme has been for Liverpool to stumble against so-called “lesser” opponents before turning on the style against the big boys. Losing 2-0 against relegation-threatened Hull before thrashing Tottenham 2-0 at Anfield in February is the prime example of this theme. But the theme begins to look like a stretch when considering draws against Chelsea and hated rivals Manchester United (twice), games Liverpool played well enough to win but didn’t.
Yet even if you accept the Reds have proved their big-game chops this season, their habit of slipping up against lesser lights, the way they did against Swansea, Leicester and Bournemouth, will probably strike again during a fixture list including a rematch with the Cherries, as well as trips to Stoke, Watford and West Ham.
Defensive woes and an innate predilection for slipping up when expected to win will prove a lethal combination for Liverpool’s top-four hopes.