Here are a few dark horse candidates to consider this year as you fill out your bracket.
Now that we’ve had a day or two to digest the bracket after Selection Sunday, it’s time to start getting down to business. Your bracket needs filling, and looking for unexpected edges can be the difference between a bracket that falls flat and one that stands above the crowd. It’s time to anoint your dark horses.
Picking the right underdog to break through to the Sweet 16 is one of the purest joys of March Madness. While we all say we love the unpredictability, it’s really about saying “I told you so” in conversation and your bracket entry. Picking the correct low seed to make the later rounds may not win you the bracket, which too often comes down to picking the right champion. But it will win you bragging rights — and a few extra early points that can make the difference down the Bracketology line.
We took an early stab at identifying dark horse archetypes last week before the field had been determined. And earlier we looked at the most under- and over-seeded teams in this tournament. Now it’s time to put our research and knowledge of the bracket to work and pick the best dark horse candidates from the field this year. For the purposes of this article, a “dark horse” will be a 6-seed or lower that can make it to the Sweet 16, and maybe beyond. There will be some more common picks, but we’ll also work on the case for a few that are more surprising for your bracket needs. Let’s get into it.
Wichita State Shockers
This one is so obvious it hurts. I know I’m not telling you anything you haven’t heard when I say Wichita State is among the best dark horse candidates in this tournament. The reasons are obvious: they’re a top 10 team by KenPom’s adjusted margin, top 15 in every other computer rating, and pulled the dark horse trick last year when they blew out two higher seeded teams en route to a Sweet 16 appearance.
And yet, I have to include them. They’re a 10-seed, slated to face fellow mid-major Dayton in the 7-10 matchup of the South region. The Shockers are well-balanced (top 20 adjusting ratings on offense and defense), deep (4th highest percentage of bench minutes in the country), and experienced. They hit their 3s and prevent their opponents from doing well from deep. Same on the boards, and in generating steals. In short, everything about their profile screams “dangerous in March” except for their strength of schedule.
And there’s even good news on that front. Mid-majors that get underrated because of a weak schedule were one of the dark horse archetypes we identified in last week’s article. Underseeded mid-majors with weak schedules (under 80th best in the country) have, as an entire class, made the Sweet 16 over 25 percent of the time since 2001-02 (7 of 25 similar teams). And Wichita State, this year, has the strongest adjusted efficiency margin of that entire subset.
They’re currently favored by about 6 points in their first-round game against Dayton, and match up with an inexperienced (though inarguably talented) Kentucky squad in their home state. They’ll be among the most popular dark horses, but it’s for a good reason.