DraftKings NBA Picks March 14
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks March 14
We are down to five games for the main DraftKings slate tonight. However, that doesn’t mean that there are no good options. There are more than there were last night in three less games! Who can we use for bargain plays if we want to play Westbrook? Let’s take a look at some stats!
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The money line was way up at 290.5 DraftKings points last night thanks in large part to 51.6% of us playing Jeremy Lamb. He paid off with 38 DraftKings points for just $3,500! Below average night from Khris Middleton and Andrew Wiggins kept me out of the money for the second straight night.
A late scratch of Kosta Koufos and Tyreke Evans screwed over a lot of people. I don’t even want to count the number of times this ridiculous lock time thing has bent me over this season. Thanks DraftKings, you have relinquished one of the two upgrades that brought me to your site anyway. I’m far from the only one upset about this, and there are others who play for much higher entry fees that get the same treatment. It is unnecessary, and will hurt your bottom line if it hasn’t already.
Okay, rant over. The winning lineup was way up at 384 DraftKings points! He was one of the few that took a chance on Jimmy Butler. Add that to a huge night from Karl-Anthony Towns and Ricky Rubio. Sprinkle that with the insane value of Lamb, Ivica Zubac, Patty Mills, and AARP member Vince Carter (41.75 DraftKings points), and you have a stellar lineup!
I can’t stress enough how important it is to watch our Twitter feed right up until lock time. We will try and relay the information out to you as soon as we can, along with any lineup changes. If you aren’t able to do that, my best advice is to lay off of anyone that may be injured. As far as the healthy scratches, we are all in the same boat. The only ones we really have a shot to switch out anymore are the games that tip at or before 7:30 eastern.
If you would like to try DraftKings for the first time, use this link for the referral bonus! It is good for $10 worth of free entry tickets. We have plenty of advice on the site to help you turn that into a solid bankroll!
Point Guards
Best Bets:
Russell Westbrook ($13,400): This is a huge price tag. So big in fact that Westbrook only hit exactly 5x value (67 DraftKings points) in the first game with Brooklyn. Yes, he had a triple-double and 30 points in that game. That’s what kind of game you need from him to get value right now. Then you realize that Westbrook has only been below 5x value, even at this price, once in nine games since the All Star Break. Once again, fade at your own risk.
Damian Lillard ($8,800): Stephen Curry‘s price is out of control! He has only hit 5x value once since February 23rd, and that was against the Knicks. The rest may have done him some good, but I will still lean towards Lillard, who has 89.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Pelicans this year. He also has at least 5x value in six of the last eight games. He is more reliable than Curry to get you value right now.
Honorable Mention:
Jrue Holiday ($7,000): Holiday only has 67 DraftKings points in two games against Portland this year, but that is in just 52 minutes. Holiday has played more than 30 minutes in every game since the Pelicans traded their backcourt except for one. More minutes will go a long ways toward him hitting value, and could even have him flying a bit under the radar right now.
Derrick Rose ($6,100): Jeff Teague has yet to hit value in March, so I will turn to Rose at this price level. He has averaged 31.6 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Pacers, which has him right at 5x value. Only Detroit and Orlando, teams who are in the top ten in point guard defense this year, have held Rose under 5x value in the last eight games. He is a safe option right now, even though he lacks the game-breaking ability that defined his early career.
Dark Horses:
Reggie Jackson ($5,800): Jackson is stealing back his starting role from Ish Smith little by little. With Smith struggling from the floor, Jackson has played more than 30 minutes in three of the last four games, hitting 7x value in two of those. If Jackson goes cold again, he has a short leash, but right now he is outplaying Smith by a pretty large margin. He could be the value you need to take down a tournament tonight.
Jeremy Lin ($5,700): Lin has averaged 29.6 DraftKings points per game since the Nets have started increasing his minutes over 20. He still hasn’t played more than 27 minutes since his return, which limits his ceiling. However, he could be back up around 30 minutes tonight, and is playing well. 6x value is not out of the realm of possibility.
Ian Clark ($3,700): Clark has earned “a bump in minutes”, according to Steve Kerr for his 36 point outburst on Saturday night with the starting five resting. While that is a vague statement, we have seen Clark play very well in his limited minutes. The Warriors will likely slide Thompson down to SF when Iguodala goes to the bench and play Clark more at SG. He is a complete shot in the dark due to the vague nature of Kerr’s statement, and the fact that he did that against a watered-down Spurs team as well. This could be something to follow though.
My picks: Westbrook(PG), Jackson(G); Holiday(PG), Jackson(G)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
C.J. McCollum ($7,500): The Pelicans are a top five defensive team against shooting guards, but that hasn’t affected McCollum’s output against them this year. C.J. has 76.25 DraftKings points in two games against New Orleans, which leaves him comfortably above 5x value. He has at least 40 DraftKings points in back to back games. Can he make it three in a row against this defense?
Victor Oladipo ($6,300): Oladipo racked up 41.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting against the Nets. He has at least 5x value in six of the last nine games, and is showing the promise that everyone thought he had coming into this season. His ceiling is above that of McCollum tonight, so that makes Oladipo an intriguing option.
Honorable Mention:
C.J. Miles ($4,100): The cheaper C.J. has a lot less upside, but the veteran has earned a starting role for a team that is playoff bound. Miles is almost exclusively a scorer, which does limit his value, but he can also get hot for extended periods of time. He has 67 DraftKings points in three games against the Knicks this year, which puts him at 5.5x value. He is a solid play in GPP formats for those of you looking for separation.
Dark Horses:
Jordan Crawford ($3,900): Crawford was plucked off the scrap heap by the Pelicans, and has turned in 80.75 DraftKings points in three games in 73 minutes. There are plenty of minutes to be had in the Pelican backcourt, and he has certainly earned at least another ten day contract. He is a nice long shot in GPP formats as well.
Stanley Johnson ($3,200): Johnson still isn’t getting a ton of minutes, but he has carved out a solid role, and has been above 5x value in each of the last four games. He has a lot of potential, but it wont be realized until he starts playing more than 20 minutes per game.
My pick: Oladipo(SG); Crawford(SG)
Small Forwards
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($11,000): James turned in an average performance by his standard against Houston on Sunday, but he was still above 4x value. He has 98 DraftKings points against Detroit this season, but has only played 66 minutes, which is a few below his season average. 5x value may not be the norm with his price up this high, but this position falls off fast tonight. Westbrook is the better play, but there are also several other suitable options at point guard. You can’t say the same here.
Paul George ($8,200): The Knicks have actually held George a little below 5x value at 36.1 DraftKings points per game in three games. However, George has at least 5x value in four of the last five games. After a slow stretch coming out of the All Star Break, George seems to be back in the swing of things.
Honorable Mention:
Carmelo Anthony ($7,400): George is a good defensive player, but he has had his issues with Anthony this year. Melo has 116.75 DraftKings points in three games against the Pacers, which leaves him well above 5x value, and a better value than George himself if this trend holds true again. Anthony had a rough stretch of Milwaukee, Detroit, and Golden State where he was well below value, but he got back on track against the Nets. He could flirt with 40 here.
Robert Covington ($7,100): Covington’s late scratch on Sunday screwed several of us over again, thanks to DraftKings changing the lock times. He still carries a questionable tag, but if he is able to go here, I like his chances against the Warriors. Covington picked up 35.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting, and that was with Kevin Durant on him. He could have an even better game tonight if he is able to play his normal amount of minutes.
Dark Horses:
Andre Roberson ($3,900): The defensive-minded Roberson has been able to drop in some points this year, but his main value is still on defense. He put up 24.5 DraftKings points in 26 minutes in the first game against the Nets this year. Last year’s stat line was littered with games below ten DraftKings points. You don’t really see that this year. Roberson is there if you need to save money, and has a little bit of upside against the Nets.
Matt Barnes ($3,700): How long do you really think Steve Kerr is going to let rookie Patrick McCaw keep starting if he keeps failing to produce? He was a popular value play on Friday, but he fell way short of the production of Clark and the veteran Barnes. This may have been an open audition . If it was, Barnes, definitely took the starting job. Keep an eye on the Golden State feed and see if they announce a change before lock time. Barnes could be worth a speculative play anyway due to his strong game on Saturday.
My Pick: Barnes(SF); Anthony(SF)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Anthony Davis ($10,500): The arrival of Cousins has continued to help Davis. He has at least 5x value in six of the nine games since Cousins arrived (Cousins missed one due to suspension). Davis dominated Portland in the first two meetings, picking up 132.5 DraftKings points in those games. He is a far safer bet for value than Cousins is.
Dario Saric ($8,100): Saric put up 41.25 DraftKings points in the first game against the Warriors this year. His ability to reach value has been hampered by the price, and I’m still worried about Green guarding him. However, it went well in the first meeting. Can he pull it off again?
Honorable Mention:
Draymond Green ($7,700): Green picked up 48 DraftKings points in the first game against Philadelphia, and it was mostly because of his defense. Green had 11 assists, six rebounds, and five steals in that game. He will give the Sixers fits up front once again, and could end up providing more value than Saric again.
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,200): Porzingis had a huge weekend against the Pistons and Nets, racking up 93 DraftKings points in those two games. He missed value quite a lot in February, but he could be turning the corner back to the player he was in December. He has a good chance to have success against the Pacers, even though he has been below average against them so far this year.
Dark Horses:
Trevor Booker ($5,000): Booker no longer starts, but he has been very consistent off the bench. He has averaged 25.9 DraftKings points per game over the last ten games. Booker is a good cash game anchor, but has very little upside since he is not starting.
Thaddeus Young ($4,300): Young has had his way with the Knicks so far this year, putting up 68.5 DraftKings points on them in three games. He had a rough February, so using him is a big risk, but he could provide the separation you need on a short slate.
My pick: Green(PF), Young(F); Davis(PF), Booker(F)
Center
Best Bets:
Andre Drummond ($7,600): Drummond has averaged 38.6 DraftKings points in three games against Cleveland this year. In the last game against the Cavs on March 9th, Drummond picked up 46 DraftKings points. Cleveland is very good defensively up front, but Drummond has had success against them. I trust him a lot more than DeMarcus Cousins at this point.
Jusuf Nurkic ($7,000): Nurkic picked up 40.25 DraftKings points in just 26 minutes against the Pelicans as a member of the Nuggets. However, we all know that a lot has changed since then. Nurkic will have to tangle with Cousins and/or Davis up front in this one. Given his propensity for foul trouble anyway, Nurkic is a big risk tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Brook Lopez ($6,500): Lopez had 37.5 DraftKings points in just 27 minutes in the first game against the Thunder this year. He has been well over 5x value in three of the last four games. Lopez definitely has the ability to do the same tonight at a relatively shallow position.
Myles Turner ($5,700): Turner averaged 37.6 DraftKings points in three games against the Knicks, and that was with Joakim Noah in the lineup. Turner’s recent play has been nothing to write home about, but he has still hit 5x value in six of the last ten games. He has enormous potential against the Knicks, but the inconsistency is maddening for us DFS players.
Dark Horses:
Willy Hernangomez ($5,300): The frontcourt minutes with Noah out haven’t been evenly distributed in every game, so that leaves Hernangomez as a bit of a risk. He has 54 DraftKings points in just 45 minutes against the Pacers in three meetings. If he gets good run here, Hernangomez could hit 6x value or more.
Richaun Holmes ($4,900): The Sixers went small against Golden State in the first meeting back on February 27th. Jahlil Okafor was a non-factor in that game. Holmes racked up 32.75 DraftKings points in 28 minutes. Expect Holmes to be much more of a factor than Okafor again, leaving him a great low priced option.
Zaza Pachulia ($3,800): Pachulia racked up 29.25 DraftKings points in just 15 minutes against Philadelphia in the first meeting. He is always a risk due to his low minutes total. Pachulia only played 20 minutes in the D-league game against the Spurs on Saturday, but he makes the most of his minutes. He has at least 5x value in seven of the last ten games.
My pick: Holmes(C), Pachulia(UTIL); Hernangomez(C), Holmes(UTIL)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, and our picks for NHL and the PGA tour! We even have some EPL picks coming your way! Once again, make sure to follow our Twitter feed leading up to tipoff!