NCAA Tournament 2017: Predicting the First Round upsets

There are first-round upsets in the NCAA Tournament every year. Who are the ones to pick this year?

March Madness is back, and it is glorious. With everyone still reeling from Selection Sunday fallout, brackets are being filled out and entered into pools. The easy thing to do is go for chalk-picking teams by seeding. The problem is that the bracket almost never plays out that way. Eight number one seeds have reached the Final Four in the last seven years. That leaves twenty spots for lower-seeded teams to make their mark.

We have seen Cinderella teams from George Washington to VCU to Butler make a run late into the tournament and shock the world. Sometimes the early round upsets are the most fun, though. Who can forget CJ McCollum and Lehigh taking down two-seed Duke or Florida Gulf Coast beating Georgetown? Lehigh was left out this year, but Dunk City is back looking for another upset.

So who will be the top teams taken out in the first round this year? Which teams with hopes of deep runs will be sent home before the weekend even arrives? I’m here to let you know. So read on and look like the guy or girl in your office pool that knew everything. Flaunt your oracle-like status when you were the only one who saw that 13-seed advancing.

East Region

Upset 1: #12 UNC-Wilmington over #5 Virginia

The Seahawks are one of the mid-major teams that a lot of people have their eye on. Ranked highly by objective metrics (#60 by Kenpom), they have been projected to be a dark horse candidate. They certainly got a tough matchup here. Virginia is probably a bit under seeded at #5, with Kenpom ranking them the seventh-best team in the nation. They slogged through a brutal ACC slate and won 22 games, backed by a stifling defense and efficient offense. They have the top ranked defense in the nation, but they may have met their match here.

Part of Virginia’s game plan is playing at a snail’s pace. They were last in the country in adjusted tempo this season, playing slow on both sides of the ball. UNCW plays slow on defense; that should limit Virginia’s possessions and keep them from scoring too many points. They have a quick-working, efficient offense, though, and that could spell doom for the Cavaliers. If Kevin Keatts can get his team out and running, scoring some easy buckets in transition, they could manage to pull the upset. Not giving Virginia too many possessions to run away while taking advantage of the opportunities when they come is a key to beating them. UNC-Wilmington has the ability to do just that.

Upset 2: #14 New Mexico State over #3 Baylor

This upset is less about New Mexico State and more about Baylor. The Aggies are far from overwhelming. They didn’t beat a single team ranked inside Kenpom’s top 100 this season. The only major categories they rank well in are offensive rebounding and free throw rate. Against a Baylor team that will be more athletic than they are, those will be tough advantages to maintain. They don’t shoot well from 3, often an indicator of upset squads. By all means, this game does not profile as an upset.

This is Baylor we’re talking about though. They are coached by none other than Scot Drew. The Bears started the season 15-0, rose to #1 in the AP Poll, and people were still asking whether or not Drew is a good coach. We only need to go back to last year to find an instance of a top Baylor team faltering early. Last season Baylor was a 5-seed and matched up against 12-seed Yale. They lost that game. Two years ago, third-seeded Baylor lost to 14-seed Georgia State. Baylor doesn’t look like a team that will be upset early this year. But they didn’t in 2015 or 2016 either. If you want to pick Baylor and coach Scott Drew to advance past the first round, do so with caution.