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NCAA Tournament 2017: Predicting the First Round upsets

By Charlie Maikis

BALTIMORE, MD - MARCH 07: Head coach Kevin Keatts of the North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks reacts to a call during the Colonial Athletic Conference Championship college basketball game against the Hofstra Pride at Royal Farms Arena on March 7, 2016 in Baltimore, Maryland. The Seahawks won 80-73. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
BALTIMORE, MD - MARCH 07: Head coach Kevin Keatts of the North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks reacts to a call during the Colonial Athletic Conference Championship college basketball game against the Hofstra Pride at Royal Farms Arena on March 7, 2016 in Baltimore, Maryland. The Seahawks won 80-73. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) /
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STILLWATER, OK – MARCH 04: Oklahoma State Cowboys guard Jawun Evans (1) during the Big 12 conference mens basketball game between the Kansas Jayhawks and the Oklahoma State Cowbosy on March 4, 2016 at Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater, Oklahoma. Kansas defeated Oklahoma State 90-85 (Photo by William Purnell/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
STILLWATER, OK – MARCH 04: Oklahoma State Cowboys guard Jawun Evans (1) during the Big 12 conference mens basketball game between the Kansas Jayhawks and the Oklahoma State Cowbosy on March 4, 2016 at Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater, Oklahoma. Kansas defeated Oklahoma State 90-85 (Photo by William Purnell/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

Midwest Region

Upset 1: #11 Rhode Island over #6 Creighton

Rhode Island enters the NCAA Tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country. The Rams have won their last nine games, including taking the A10 Tournament crown over the VCU Rams on Sunday. Creighton, meanwhile, has faltered since losing point guard Mo Watson Jr. to injury. Since starting the season 18-1, they have crawled to a 7-8 finish. Their success was based on a dynamic offense. They play at one of the fastest tempos in the country and score efficiently. Without Watson, though, they have obviously fallen off some. Despite shooting well from all over the floor, they shoot a mediocre 68.3 percent on free throws, something that could come back to bite them in close games.

All of this opens the door for the Rams. They thrive on defense, doing their best work in limiting 3-pointers and blocking shots. Their tough defense grinds opposing offenses to a halt, something that will be key against the Bluejays. Despite not shooting well overall from deep, they have been hot of late, hitting 25 of 54 attempts (46.3 percent) in the A10 Tournament. If they can ride this hot streak and slow Creighton’s offense, they are prime for an upset here. With momentum being as big as it is in college basketball, the opposite directions these two teams appear to be heading could make all the difference.

Upset 2: #10 Oklahoma State over #7 Michigan

Michigan is likely to be a popular pick to make a run out of their #7 spot. They come in hot as can be, having just won four games in four days to win the Big Ten Tournament. Guard Derrick Walton Jr. has led the charge, taking a middling Wolverines squad to unforeseen heights. Spurred by the fifth-best offense in college basketball, per Kenpom, they can outscore even the best of them. Unfortunately for the plentiful fan base chanting “Go Blue!”, they may have been matched up with one of the few teams that can outpace them on that end.

Oklahoma State sports a blistering offense thanks the combination of first-year head coach Brad Underwood and sophomore guard Juwan Evans. Underwood is no stranger to upsets, as he led Stephen F. Austin out of the Southland Conference to win two tournament games in the last three years. Kenpom’s top-ranked offense, they sport top-six figures in both 3-point shooting and offensive rebounds. Both of those are great historical indicators of dark horse picks. If a team can win a lot of extra possessions and convert those possessions into a lot of points, that generally bodes well. While Michigan plays at a very slow tempo, the Cowboys play at one of the fastest. Look for Oklahoma State to take down red-hot Michigan and move on to the Second Round.

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