DraftKings Arnold Palmer Invitational DFS Preview

Mar 20, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Jason Day (right) of Australia holds the champions trophy with Arnold Palmer after winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Master Card at Bay Hill Club and Lodge . Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports DraftKings Arnold Palmer Invitational /

DraftKings Arnold Palmer Invitational DFS Preview

Rounding up the Florida swing this year, is the DraftKings Arnold Palmer Invitational. The tour will head to Bay Hill Club and Lodge, in Bay Hill, Florida. Bay Hill will play at 7,381 yards and a par 72. Emphasis should be placed heavily on golfers who excel with their long irons. This course forces golfers to keep their driver in the bag, but rewards those that can reach long par 3’s and 4’s with their long approach shots. With winning scores in the -15 to -20 range, golfers that are more likely to register birdies and eagles on par 5’s should also be considered.

As always, it will be important to evaluate the standard GIR, ADJ. RD. Score, recent form, course history, birdie scoring, and Vegas odds. However, scrambling, high ball flight, and course history, in particular, stand out this week. Golfers who have the ability to hit a high shot tend to have more success finding favorable positions on the green. We also have a large data set of course history, which will be helpful in identifying golfers who have had prior success.

This week’s event is an invitational, meaning that there are fewer golfers in the field than normal (roughly 120). At least 58% of the field will make the cut, which is a sizable jump from the normal 47% that make it in 144 man or 156 man tournaments. With this format and DraftKings’ pricing in mind, I’ll be looking to follow a “stars and scrubs” lineup construction.

Top Tier: $12,000 – $8,000

Mar 5, 2017; Mexico City, MEX; Rory McIlroy plays his shot from the third tee during the final round of the WGC – Mexico Championship golf tournament at Club de Golf Chapultepec. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports /

Rory Mcilroy – $12000 – CASH/GPP

Rory Mcilroy is one of my top-tier pivots this week, as I suspect Henrik Stenson will be the highest owned golfer. Stenson is the obvious chalk, especially when you consider his course history here at Bay Hill (a 3rd, 2nd, 5th, and 8th place finish his most recent appearances, and never missing a cut in 7 appearances). I wont be outright fading Stenson, but be aware that he could see over 30% ownership.

If Rory lands in the low 20’s or even sub 20% owned, I think it will be the way to go, especially in high stakes tournaments. Being the highest priced golfer, with some question marks surrounding his recent injuries and lack of recent data could stifle a portion of ownership. However, Rory ranks near the top in nearly every statistical category. From birdie making, to driving distance, to GIR, to Vegas odds, to long iron play, Rory is too good to dismiss on this slate.

Rickie Fowler – $9900 – CASH/GPP

Rickie Fowler enters this week in excellent recent form, including a win at the Honda Classic. His approach game has been one of, if not the best on tour of late, and if he can carry that over this week, he should find success. Fowler is also one of the top ranked scramblers, avoiding a bogey or worse 63.5% of the time after missing the green. Being a Florida native, Fowler tends to excel during the Florida swing of the tour. If you want to take a stroll down narrative street, Fowler was very closer with Arnold Palmer and may have a little extra motivation this week. He’ll even be sporting Palmer inspired spikes this weekend.

Others to have exposure to:

Cash: Henrik Stenson, Thomas Pieters, Tyrrell Hatton, Justin Rose

GPP: Henrik Stenson, Thomas Pieters, Tyrrell Hatton, Jason Day, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Rose, Paul Casey, Francesco Molinari, Adam Hadwin, Ryan Moore

Mid Tier: $8,000 – $7,000

Aug 13, 2016; Silvis, IL, USA; Wesley Bryan tees off on the second hole during the third round of the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports /

Wesley Bryan – $7100 – CASH

Wesley Bryan has caught hot fire of late, coming off of a 7th, 4th, and 4th place finish in his last three events. Bryan is simply underpriced on DraftKings this week and is the clear-cut chalk in this price range. His implied chance to win, via Vegas, is 2.2%, much greater than anyone priced in this range. Bryan’s putter offers him many birdie opportunities, and he’s averaging 14.1 field and course adjusted birdies per tournament. Given the small sample size and ownership on Bryan, I’ll be underweight on him in tournaments, relative to the field.

Byeong-Hun An – $7000 – GPP

As I’ve touched on in previous PGA articles, putting, for the most part, tends to have the most variance of any metric, and I therefore look to target players that have struggled with the putter of late, in hopes that they can turn it around. Byeong-Hun An is the perfect case if you buy into that strategy. The putter has been his demise of late, but he’s still scoring outstandingly well in strokes gained tee to green and on approach shots. An has seen a significant price decrease of over $1000 from when he was priced in the $8000’s at the Genesis Open and Farmers Insurance Open.

Russell Henley – $7000 – CASH/GPP

Russell Henley is a value play when considering his implied odds to win. Henley currently has a 1.6% chance of winning which is more than those priced around him (including An at 1.1%). Henley comes to Bay Hill in solid recent form, with a few top 10 and top 25 finishes in his most recent outings. Henley has only missed one cut this year and could be an intriguing play, considering his price and low ownership. Henley has notably poor course history, only making the cut in one of his four appearances, which should cap significant ownership. Henley also has a proven track record of putting success on Bermuda greens.

Others to have exposure to:

GPP: Emiliano Grillo, Kevin Na, Kevin Kisner, Charl Sschwartzel, Martin Kaymer, Tommy Fleetwood,

Bottom Tier: $7,000 – $6,500

Nov 19, 2016; Sea Island, GA, USA; Charles Howell III watches his tee shot on the eighteenth hole during the third round at Sea Island Golf Club – Seaside Course. Mandatory Credit: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports /

Charles Howell III – $6900 – CASH

Similarly to Wesley Bryan in the mid tier, Charles Howell III is mispriced and should be a chalky option this week. Howell has been incredibly safe this year and is receiving an insane $2500 price discount from last week at the Valspar Championship where he was $9400.

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Howell may have limited upside, but he has failed to miss the cut in each of his seven appearances at this tournament and is a justifiable play in cash games. Consider fading Howell in tournaments due to elevated ownership.

Anirban Lahiri – $6700 – GPP

Anirban Lahiri warrants a look this week, as his recent form and birdie making ability are nothing to discredit. Lahiri is coming off of a 5th place finish at the Indian Open, but has also proven his skills on the PGA Tour with an 11th place finish at the Honda Classic. He has shown the potential to post a low score with any level of competition, given his 14.8 course and field adjusted birdies per tournament. However, Lahiri has been on a rigorous travel schedule lately, so there is some liability, but if we can get exposure to a low owned Lahiri, that would be an optimal tournament play.

Others to have exposure to:

Cash: Graham DeLaet, Lucas Glover

GPP: Graham DeLaet, Brooks Koepka, Lucas Glover, Kevin Streelman,

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