FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – March 15
Welcome to the Wednesday FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for tonight’s ten game slate which kicks off at 7:00PM EST!
As a reminder, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Tuesday Night’s winning FanDuel NBA GPP scores were well below the season average as 349.5 FanDuel points was enough to take down the $4 GPP on FanDuel! Over the first 115 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.3 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Over the first 115 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.3 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Tuesday’s Picks and Pivots lineups took many turns throughout the day as we started our day focused on fading the NY games due to the blizzard in the Northeast but once those games were on, we loaded up on Russell Westbrook and the OKC Thunder. Both lineups landed right around 250 which was a few points below the cash line but regardless it was a brutal night. We went into the night stacking the Pistons/Cavs game which ultimately blew out big time with both Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson being held to under 25 points which sank our core!
Tonight’s 10 game slate is very interesting and honestly a bit unappealing at first glance. The Rockets/Lakers game has the highest team total but also a 17.5 Vegas spread and the Spurs/Portland game has an 11 point spread which presents two major blow-outs we have to weigh in our roster decisions.
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Ricky Rubio ($7,600) Pouring over this slate, I kept coming back to a balanced roster build as the optimal way to approach my lineups as the value (at least initially) is underwhelming and the high-priced studs are frankly over-priced. When I look towards a balanced roster build, I try to take an initial approach of – does this team have a 300 point floor? That would mean each player is likely to put up 33 points and then we look to see if they have upside. Keep that in mind as we go throughout the roster build as it will help give you context into my picks tonight!
The Minnesota/Boston game is one of my favorite spots to target tonight as we have the fourth highest team total on the slate and only a 6 point Vegas spread. Rubio has been on an absolute tear in recent games, putting up 33(magic number) or more FanDuel points in seven straight games. The upside is clearly there as well as he topped 40 FD points in four of those games including a 55 FD point outing his last time out.
Tonight Rubio takes on Isaiah Thomas, who has the worst individual defensive rating of any NBA player so the match-up is clearly ideal. It is possible the Celtics rotate Avery Bradley on to Rubio and try to hide IT’s defense but I think the Minnesota pick and roll with KAT can neutralize that to an extent and if you can afford it, stacking Rubio with KAT tonight, makes for a great GPP strategy.
George Hill ($6,300) Hill is not a sexy pick by any means and he typically goes overlooked, especially on these larger slates but tonight with a match-up against the Pistons, I think he makes for an elite play.
Hill has put up at least 34 FanDuel points (that number again) in three of his last four games, with the only game he under-performed being his first game back from injury where he played 18 minutes against OKC. The injury seems to be behind Hill as he played 37 minutes in his last game and tonight takes on a Pistons team ranked 21st in DvP to opposing PG’s.
The price point on Hill is such that he sits in between D’Angelo Russell and Darren Collison who find themselves in much sexier match-ups so I think he will be single digit owned on this slate and with him hitting 6x value in 2 of his last 4 games, I love the upside here tonight!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Devin Booker ($6,600) I expect Booker will be MEGA chalk tonight at this price point as the Suns have the second highest team total on the slate and are projected to score 6 points higher than their season average. Booker at only $6.6k feels like stealing as the guy has been on fire recently (look at the picture above – he literally is on fire) and I will have 100% exposure to him tonight.
Over his last four games, Booker is averaging 36.5 FanDuel points (yep that number again) and has 20 or more shot attempts in three straight games. The Kings are ranked 28th in DvP to opposing SG’s on the season so the match-up simply could not be any better. I am not going to even consider the fade here at this price point as the floor is incredibly safe and the upside is massive based off the match-up and shot volume Booker has been showing lately.
Jeremy Lamb ($4,900) My man J Lamb! With Nicolas Batum unlikely to play tonight (he did not practice yesterday and is considered questionable at best), we can simply plug and play Lamb tonight!
With Batum off the floor, Lamb stepped into the starting SG spot for Charlotte and proceeded to drop 34.8 FanDuel points (yep, you know what I am going to say). Without Batum on the court, Lamb puts up over a fantasy point per minute on the season and is averaging 33 FD points per game as a start this season. The price jumped a bit on FanDuel but not enough to scare me away as even an “average” game from Lamb tonight puts me close to 7x value at this price point!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Paul George ($8,100) PG13 is not a player I roster often but Small Forward is a spot today that I am completely underwhelmed by at the value price points so I am willing to pay up a bit for the stability that a player like George can bring!
George comes into this game in great form, putting up 19 or more shot attempts in four of his last six games and takes on a Hornets team he jut dropped 49.5 FanDuel points against last week! George is averaging over 39 FanDuel points per game since the calendar flipped to March and at only $8,100 on FanDuel, he gives you the ability to lock in a safe floor in our balanced roster build with demonstrated 50 point upside.
Gordon Hayward ($7,800) Another guy I rarely roster but you can essentially copy and paste my thoughts above on how the SF position looks tonight and why I would be willing to pay for the stability of a guy like Hayward.
With Derrick Favors out with an injury, Hayward leads the Jazz in usage at 30% and puts up just over a fantasy point per minute. Hayward has put up at least 33 FanDuel points in three of his last four games and makes for a steady foundation piece within this roster build.
Hayward will likely be under-owned as I expect most will look to drop down a bit further into the mid-tier at SF and I have no issue with that approach. With the news that Nicolas Batum is OUT, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($5,300) sees a 3% usage increase and is a viable SF play in the mid-range coming off a 30 FD point outing in his last game. T.J. Warren ($5,900) is another find mid-range target to build off Devin Booker who has double-digit shot attempts in five straight and will get one of the best match-ups on the board against the Kings.
If I am dropping down from Hayward at Small Forward, it is simply to find the salary to pay up for Karl-Anthony Towns tonight at Center.
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Power forward is ugly tonight as I have no interest in paying up for Anthony Davis over $11k or an underwhelming Blake Griffin at nearly $9k so I will likely live in this $5-$6k range tonight! There are a variety of players in this range that I feel comfortable using and will mix and match my lineups accordingly tonight.
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Willie Cauley Stein ($5,500) WCS and the Sacramento Kings see the largest pace bump on the slate in a high scoring match-up with the Suns so this is a great place to get some correlation plays off Devin Booker in our roster build. WCS has played 35+ minutes in three straight games while averaging over 30 FanDuel points per contest. The Suns are ranked 26th in DvP and this is a great place for WCS to continue his recent hot play!
Frank Kaminsky ($5,500) For $1,000 more you can roster Marvin Williams who has three straight 40+ FanDuel outings but this may be a great pivot spot as I expect he will be the highest owned PF on the slate due to his recent streak!
Kaminsky returned to the Hornets lineup and played 24 minutes off the bench so the masses will be hesitant to go back to him, but this is a player that was routinely dropping 40 spots prior to his injury so we know the upside is there. This is probably the riskiest pick on my roster but I want to find a place to differentiate myself and I think with everyone jumping on the Marvin Williams train due to his game logs, we can sneakily pivot to Frank the Tank in the same match-up!
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,800) Initially I started today thinking I would stay in the range of players like Marc Gasol or Rudy Gobert (who I still believe are fine plays) but the more the day goes on, the more I find myself trending back towards KAT at Center. The match-up with the Celtics is perfectly set-up for KAT tonight as he has exceeded 50 FanDuel points each of the last three times these two teams have met.
The price is steep for Towns but I love the idea of pairing Rubio-Towns tonight and with the guaranteed salary relief we get from George Hill, Jeremy Lamb and Devin Booker, it comes easy for us to lock in Towns salary.
Ultimately I expect my core tonight will be Ricky Rubio, George Hill, Devin Booker, Jeremy Lamb, Paul George and Karl-Anthony Towns and will mix and match my PF spots and my second SF spot. As always I will post my final lineups on Twitter closer to lock so stay tuned!
Next: FanDuel NBA Top 5 Plays for Today
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR throughout the day for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!