Here’s a look at a deep preview of the East Region of the 2017 NCAA tournament
The East Region of the NCAA Tournament is one of the most interesting in the field. It’s got the defending champions — Villanova — and a late surging Duke team that will be a popular national title pick. It’s loaded with strong teams, and even still has the potential for a few first round upsets. Let’s kick off coverage with a deep look at the region.
Who’s the No. 1 Seed?
The number one seed in this region is the Tournament’s overall number one seed — the Villanova Wildcats. Jay Wright and company are back to defend last year’s national title from what’s supposed to be the move advantageous spot in the Dance. They earned the 1-seed with a 31-3 campaign that included both the Big East regular season title and the conference championship — a conference considered the 3rd best in the country by KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metrics. The Wildcats finished 12-2 against the RPI top 50, which included non-conference wins over Purdue, Virginia, Notre Dame, and Wake Forest.
The Wildcats are led on both ends by Josh Hart, who has submitted an NPOTY-worth campaign in his senior year. The 6-foot-5 guard is among the country’s most efficient high volume offensive threats, pairing an excellent 3-point shot (40.7 percent) with an excellent ability to attack the basket. He’s also one of the most important players for the team on the defensive end, where his ability to cover quick guards and body up to bigs helps enable the switch-heavy defensive scheme the Wildcats employ.
The rest of the supporting cast is also excellent. Jalen Brunson has blossomed as a sophomore into one of the best attacking guards in the nation. He takes almost 40 percent of his shots at the rim, and finishes at a 72 percent clip there. He also has an excellent pull-up game, and hits over 40 percent of his jumpers away from the rim. Always lurking on offense is 3-point threat Kris Jenkins, who is hitting about 38 percent of his 3s on one of the highest volumes in the country.
Just about everyone else in the rotation is a versatile piece, capable of hitting 3s and adequately switching onto anyone on defense. Mikal Bridges is likely the best role player. The redshirt sophomore cans just about 40 percent of his 3s, and is one of the best defensive players in the country. Eric Paschall is the lynchpin in Villanova’s death lineups, where everyone on the floor can shoot from 3 and switch one through five. Darryl Reynolds does the grunt work as the team’s only player over 6-foot-8, rebounding, setting screens, and finishing on the roll with impunity.
It all adds up to a team that has the 2nd best adjusted offense, and 12th best defense, and the overall 1-seed. If only they had been placed in the protected region they deserved.
RELATED: Updated 2017 NCAA Tournament Bracket
Who’s on Upset Alert?
About that — just about every team is on upset alert. Questionable seedings and late season slides from a few teams has resulted in a region that has six of the top 13 teams in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency rankings in the top-6 seeds. The region also has the strongest 8-seed in Wisconsin, a team that was terribly underseeded as the apparently 2nd best team in the Big 10. The Round of 32 and Sweet 16 will be a bloodbath even if there are no first round upsets, and potential upsets abound.
There are some teams that will need to be on upset alert earlier than most, though. Here are the three matchups (potential and otherwise) I’d consider most prone to upsets in the first round.
1. Virginia Cavaliers (5) vs. UNC Wilmington Seahawks (12)
Though the Cavaliers are darlings of advanced efficiency — they’re currently at 7th in the country per KenPom, despite a 22-10 record — they’re vulnerable right now. A late season slide that saw them lose 7 of their last 13 contests points leaves them in a somewhat dangerous place. Virginia is more dependent on their outside shooting than they have been in the past, and it’s abandoned them a bit in the late season.
Though none of those losses were to teams weaker than UNC Wilmington, their first round opponent, the Seahawks profile as a potentially dangerous matchup for the Cavaliers. UNC Wilmington has one of the most dangerous offenses in the country – per KenPom’s adjusted rankings, they’re currently at 18th. A hot-shooting night behind the play of guard CJ Bryce could push them over top of a reeling Virginia that’s been one of the most vulnerable teams in the NCAA tournament in recent history.
2. Florida (4) vs. East Tennessee State (13)
Florida has built one of the country’s top defenses. However, John Egbunu was a solid part of that efficiency number. His 6.9 percent block rate ranked among the top-100 rates in the country, and he was also an excellent offensive and defensive rebounder. After he went down to a season-ending knee injury during the team’s game against Auburn, Florida lost three of its last six games. Florida’s still a solid team, but they’re not the squad they were while they were building a 4-seed resume.
East Tennessee State pairs an excellent defense with an offense that hits both 3s and 2s efficiently. When paired with a defensive steal rate that nears 12 percent, the Buccaneers have a solid Giant Killer profile. If Florida can’t reach the levels it was at with Egbunu, East Tennessee State has a puncher’s chance of pulling the shocking upset.
3. Marquette (10) vs. South Carolina (7) and Duke (2)
This one’s a bit of cheating — a 10 seed winning over a 7 isn’t much of an upset — so I’ll give you a double by calling for a potential upset for the Golden Eagles against Duke. Marquette finished the season as the absolute best 3-point shooting team in the country, hitting an incredible 43 percent from behind the arc on the 14th-highest attempt rate in the country. They’re also quite efficient inside the arc, and are among the most reliable teams from the free throw line in the country.
South Carolina is a strong defensive squad, but Marquette matches up well with the Gamecocks. While Marquette can’t defend the 3-point line, South Carolina can’t shoot it; they hit under 34 percent of their deep attempts. And South Carolina has been prone to turnovers, while Marquette excels at forcing steals. A good chance exists here for Marquette to rocket into the 2nd round behind a hail of 3s.
And while we’re there, any team that can shoot as well as Marquette can win a second round by going supernova from beyond the arc. It helps that Duke hasn’t been a great defensive team, even during their recent run. I don’t think Marquette over Duke is a likely upset if they make it past South Carolina, but having watched Marquette’s comeback win over Villanova — a much better defensive team than Duke — I can’t rule it out.
Player to Watch
Josh Hart is the best college player in this region, and operating on the 1-seed. You’re definitely going to want to watch him. Jonathan Motley, of Baylor, will go a long way in determining whether his team rises to the challenge of making the money rounds of the Dance.
But I’d argue the most important player, in terms of his team’s success, is London Perrantes. The senior is the only player on Virginia averaging more than 75 percent of the team’s minutes played per game. His 23.6 percent usage rate is the 2nd highest on the team (behind Mariol Shayok, who only plays 20 minutes per game), and he assists on almost 25 percent of the team’s baskets while on the floor.
He’s also the player Virginia turns to most when the shot clock runs down, and it often does for the slowest-paced team in the country. Virginia’s average offensive possession lasts 21.4 seconds, again the slowest in the country. 106 of Perrantes’s shot attempts this year have come 25 seconds or more after the start of a possession, or after an offensive rebound. That’s just about a third of his total shot attempts. And, on a shot that’s usually among the most difficult in basketball, Perrantes has been incredibly efficient. He’s hitting 38.3 percent of his threes, 43.6 percent of his 2-point jumpers, and 60 percent at the rim (all per hoop-math.com).
Virginia has the potential to be one of the best teams in this region. They hovered around the top 2 in per-possession efficiency for most of the year, and still qualify as the 2nd-best team in the region by KenPom’s rankings. If they’re going to be anything near the team they need to be to finally break through to the Final Four under Tony Bennett, they’re going to need Perrantes to be at his best.
Check out this guide to the region’s best NBA prospects for some of the other most interesting players to keep an eye on.
Team to Watch
The team to watch has to be Duke, who’s easily the biggest wildcard in the group. The range of outcomes for this postseason goes from first weekend exit to national title winner, which is only appropriate given the trajectory of their season.
Left for dead at least twice this season — mostly centering around 1-3 stretches during ACC play –, the Blue Devils roared through the ACC Tournament to become the first conference champion to win four games in four days. To get there, they beat a 1-seed, a 2-seed, and 5-seed, clearly demonstrating that, at their ceiling, they can beat just about any team in the country. The amount of quality, and top-50 RPI, wins they had were among the highest in the country. They were even in contention for a 1-seed thanks to their run through the tournament, though they ultimately fell short in the Committee’s eyes.
But there was a reason they did. Duke’s lost 8 games this season, and some were real head scratchers — Syracuse and North Carolina State in particular come to mind. Their adjusted defensive efficiency, right now, would tie for the lowest in history for an NCAA champion pre-tournament, should they make it all the way. And it’s not quite trending up in the way Duke’s defense did during their last tournament run. Since they’ve made the permanent switch to small ball, their offense has soared – but the defense has lagged behind. They won a lot of close games during this stretch, but there are only so many of those you can survive in the NCAA Tournament.
An ideal outcome for unaffiliated fans of the sport is a showdown between Duke and Villanova at Madison Square Garden — winner goes to the Final Four. Duke clearly has the ability to get there — we’ll need to watch closely to make sure they do. They’re the most interesting team on this side of the bracket.
Predicted Winner
I’m going with the 1-seed here. The Villanova Wildcats will emerge out of the East to return to the Final Four. It’s a chalky pick, and unlikely to be popular with anyone other than Villanova fans. I like their path to the Elite Eight. Though Wisconsin would be a heavy test — as would a Virginia Tech team that has hit more than 40 percent of its 3s — Villanova is good enough on both ends to weather a challenge from either team in the Round of 32 game. And while Virginia gave Villanova a rough time in the regular season at home, they’re hardly a lock to make it even out of the first round, let alone the Sweet 16. And Florida, while a good defensive squad, might struggle to score a bit against Villanova’s defense, and they’re in a bit of a slump themselves.
That leaves their potential matchup against Duke, Baylor, or whichever other team comes out of the South bracket. While it’s tough to go against a team with Duke’s talent level, Villanova seems like a team that’s been doing small ball, better, for longer. Villanova’s aggressive, switch-heavy scheme could slow down a Duke offense that doesn’t have a ton of creators off the dribble. And with the switch to small ball, Duke is no longer positioned to exploit Villanova’s greatest weakness — a lack of size in the interior.
Villanova has been playing one or no bigs all year, and keeping the defense excellent throughout. Duke has been doing it for a third of the year, and hasn’t been able to make it work yet on the defensive end. In a matchup of like-versus-like, give me the defending champions.
And if they get Baylor? The Bears turn the ball over a bit too much for my taste, and could struggle against Villanova’s 1-3-1 press and ability to create steals. It’d be an incredibly interesting clash in styles, with Baylor’s aggressive 2-3 zone going up against a Villanova team that loves to launch from deep to open up the interior. I think Baylor has the defense to make Villanova sweat, and they could give them fits on the offensive boards. But too many turnovers, and one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country could sink a Baylor team’s that’s been listing in the 2nd half of the season.