NCAA Tournament 2017: One key stat that shows why your team is doomed in March

Duke and UCLA: Defense

For the first group, we’ve got a No. 2 seed (Duke) and a No. 3 seed (UCLA). Duke, considered a national title contender in the preseason, struggled a bit early on thanks to injuries and some swirling distractions. They figured it out enough by the end to make a run through the ACC Tournament, and were in consideration for a No. 1 seed thanks to a bevy of high-quality wins. UCLA ran out to 19-1 start behind the play of superstar freshman Lonzo Ball and the changes he brought for the team. Though they stumbled a bit early in Pac-12 play, after a 10-1 finish to their season and a 29-4 record, the Bruins garnered a No. 3 seed in the South region.

The most glaring problem for these two title contenders is the defense. Duke finished the year with the 39th-best defense, per KenPom’s adjusted ratings; UCLA was 78th. The worst adjusted defensive rating any eventual champion started the tournament with was 39th — North Carolina in 2009 (hey, that’s Duke’s ranking!). Double ironically, Duke’s championship in 2015 was the second-worst — the Blue Devils that season started the tournament with the 37th-best adjusted defense.

But it’s deeper than that. Even in terms of reaching the Final Four, the results have been pretty poor for weaker defensive squads. Analyzing NCAA tournament teams from the last 15 years, with top-4 seeds, top-10 offenses, and defenses outside the top-40: just four of thirty-six squads (11 percent) have made it to the Final Four. More than three times as many (13) teams failed to make it past the first weekend — over a third.

All other top-4 seeds have made it to the Final Four over 20 percent of the time (42 of 202 in the last 15 years). Though Duke is just under the ‘top-40’ defense threshold, both they and UCLA will have to buck some seriously unfriendly trends just to make it to the Final Four.

Doomed Rating: Won’t even make the Final Four