NCAA Tournament 2017: One key stat that shows why your team is doomed in March

Villanova: 3-point attempt rate

Villanova has been among the 3-happiest teams in college basketball for years, now. They ranked seventh in 2014, 22nd in 2015, and 31st last year. Each has been well above 40 percent, and they’re in the same spot this year (44.1 percent, 25th in the country).

A 3-point attempt rate that high has not portended well for high-end seeds. Taking teams from the last 15 years, just three of the 16 top-4 seeds with 3PA’s above 40 percent have made it to the Final Four — and exactly half bowed out before the end of the first weekend. Even if we go instead to, say, a top-50 3-point attempt rate (to allow for how the 3-point rate has increased league-wide since 2001-02), we’ve only got four Final Four participants, out of 26 total teams. And 14 of those 26 teams went home on the first weekend.

The streak breaker is, of course, Villanova. In 2016 they became the first top-4 seed to ever participate in the national title game for both of the above thresholds. Of course they also had an excellent defense, but they had a legitimately unprecedented level of shooting on their way to a national championship. No way they manage that two years in a row, right?

That’s right, defending champs. You’re dead in the water before you even get started. Forget the 31-3 record, forget the overall No. 1 seed. The stats say there’s (almost) no chance you can win it.

Doomed Rating: Lucky to make it out of the first weekend