NCAA Tournament 2017: One key stat that shows why your team is doomed in March

Baylor: Turnovers

The Baylor Bears threw their name into the contender’s ring on the strength of a 15-0 start to the season that a number of quality wins. Even after losing to West Virginia, Baylor stretched its record to 20-1 before a rough-ish finish to the Big 12 slate. Even though they finished tied for a distant second in the Big 12, the Bears put together enough of a resume to garner a top-3 seed come tournament time.

But, throughout the year, Baylor has really struggled with turning the ball over. Their 20.7 percent turnover rate, as it currently stands, is 311th-best in the country. This is far and away worse than any other top-3 seed — the next closest squad is Kansas, at 18.1 percent. This has, historically, been bad for national title chances.

Just two national champions have had turnover rates higher than Baylor’s mark of 20.7 percent. And, of the 35 squads that have had rates equal to or higher than Baylor’s mark, just 7 have made it as far as the Final Four. While this is relatively close to average, when coupled with Baylor’s inability to force turnovers (they force them on just 16.9 percent of possessions), things get really dire. Of the 20 teams to turn the ball over on more than 20 percent of their possession, and force turnovers on less than 20 percent of opponent possessions, just two have made the Final Four. Eight of the 20 bowed out on the first weekend.

Next: One player who will dominate each region of the NCAA Tournament

In the NCAA tournament, it’s never a good idea to give your opponent more possessions than you get. For Baylor, it’s probably their doom.

Doomed Rating: FUMBLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE