FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – March 16
Welcome to the Thursday FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for tonight’s six game slate which kicks off at 7:00PM EST!
As a reminder, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Wednesday Night’s winning FanDuel NBA GPP scores jumped back up to 385.9 in the $3 Shot as a big night from Kawhi Leonard (62 FanDuel points) helped the winning team take home a big score! Over the first 116 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.34 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Over the first 116 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.34 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Wednesday Night’s top Picks and Pivots lineup put up 298 FanDuel points, finishing above the cash line in all entered formats on the back of a 52 point outing from Paul George. The Devin Booker/Jeremy Lamb combination (which was highly owned) failed to reach 43 combined points which was the biggest drawback of the night but ultimately we got right at our 300 goal which if we can do that each and every night, we will stay profitable.
Thursday Night’s slate already has MAJOR injury news, specifically in the highest total game of the night between the Clippers and Nuggets that completely re-shapes this slate. Blake Griffin AND DeAndre Jordan have been ruled OUT for the Clippers, while Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler and Darrell Arthur have been ruled OUT for the Nuggets. With that in mind, let’s get to our picks!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Russell Westbrook ($13,400) The biggest impact of the injury news in LA and Denver is that this slate now has so much value that fitting in Russell Westbrook becomes nearly a must for me tonight. Looking over this six game slate, there are two games right off the bat – Utah/Cleveland and Memphis/Atlanta that have low totals and low projected paces so we can almost write these two games off and turn this into a four game slate with Westbrook being a foundation piece to build on!
Westbrook just continues to put up video game numbers each and every night with 69 or more FanDuel points in four of his last six games. With Kyle Lowry out of the line-up, the Raptors PG position now becomes one we can exploit as Cory Joseph has one of the worst individual defensive ratings of any PG on this slate. The game has a 3 point Vegas total so we should get four quarters of Westbrook tonight, another massive triple double and the odds on favorite for the highest point total of any player in the player pool!
Chris Paul ($9,800) The Clippers/Denver game opened with a combined team total of 224.5, the highest on the slate and was the game I intended to stack heavily with the stars from both squads. The injury news makes this game even more of a must stack and the value we can utilize here allows us to pair a guy like Westbrook with another high-priced stud in CP3!
Without Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan on the court tonight, Paul will simply get all the usage he can handle. Over the last two seasons, per RotoGrinders CourtIQ tool, Paul has a 27% usage rate and puts up a monster 1.43 fantasy points per minute. When you add in the fact that the Nuggets are one of the worst teams at defending the PG position, you are looking at potential GPP winning night from a guy like Paul and I see no reason to fade him tonight and instead will be stacking him with all the Clippers value!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Will Barton ($5,300) As I mentioned in the open, with Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari and Darrell Arthur all out tonight, the Nuggets are once again an injury depleted mess which is exactly when we as DFS players want to jump on this team. With all three of those players off the floor this year, Barton sees a 3% usage increase and averages a fantasy point per minute while on the floor.
Barton is one of the most explosive scorers in the NBA and we saw earlier in the year the kind of DFS impact he can have when given the minutes. I would expect Barton to slide into the starting SF spot tonight for the Nuggets and get back to putting up 40+ FanDuel point outings like he was when the Nuggets were short-handed in February. Just go back and take a look at Barton’s game log on FanDuel and you will see the 40-50 FD point upside we can target here at just over $5k!
Jamal Crawford/J.J. Redick ($4,000) Honestly you can mix and match these guys tonight at the same price point if you want to differentiate your roster build across multiple entries as both players should be primed for solid nights against the Nuggets back-court.
Crawford is my preferred target in GPP’s due to his explosive nature and over the last two years he actually leads the Clippers in usage at 28% with Blake and Jordan off the court! I would expect the offense to default to Paul and Crawford tonight as the primary shooting options and we have seen the kind of upside that Crawford has when given the opportunity. At only $4k tonight, Crawford has legit 10x upside and I think 6x is almost a given considering the volume of shots he will be asked to take.
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Vince Carter ($3,900) and Joe Johnson ($3,600) Welcome to FanDuel Picks and Pivots, the 2005 edition! We are going to the bargain price point at both small forward spots tonight and locking in two of the oldest players in the NBA!
The Small Forward position is one that I think we can look to punt tonight as I am not interested in paying $11k for LeBron James against Utah and I am not falling into the Carmelo Anthony trap as at $8.4k he is the one “high-priced guy” I think will struggle to even hit 5x tonight as he has not topped 40 FD points since the end of February (9 games).
Joe Johnson continues to start for the Jazz with Derrick Favors sidelined, specifically when they play teams who can go small and I expect with Channing Frye opposing him, this is a spot he will stay in the starting lineup. Over his last two games, Iso Joe has played over 28 minutes a night and has averaged over 22 FanDuel points per game which would exceed 6.2x value at this price point!
Carter meanwhile is being asked to handle more of the load for Memphis with Chandler Parsons sidelined and has played over 29 minutes in back to back games for the Grizzlies. Over those two games, Vinsanity is averaging over 26 FanDuel points per game which puts him right at 7x value at this price point, making him an elite value play.
The one potential pivot play we can look for is Joe Ingles ($4,000) who may get the start at SG with Rodney Hood leaving Wednesday Night’s game with an injury.
This is the spot I will be most closely watching for value throughout the day as both these “veterans” are on the tail end of a back to back so it is possible they could always rest – I mean we see 25-year-old players in their prime rest in the NBA so it would not be surprising to see Johnson/Carter get a breather. Stay tuned to our Twitter account for updates throughout the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Nikola Jokic ($10,600) The very first player I locked into my lineups tonight was Jokic as with all the Nuggets injury news and the highest combined team total on the slate, this was the perfect spot for a 50-60 Joker outing. With the news that Blake AND DeAndre are sitting out, this only makes me love this play more as Jokic should absolutely get whatever he wants tonight against the Clippers depleted front-court.
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With Chandler, Gallo and Arthur off the floor this season, Jokic sees a 4% usage bump and puts up a massive 1.54 fantasy points per minute or 55 FD points per 36 minutes of run! With all this value on the slate, I love the idea of stacking Jokic/Paul/Westbrook and will have a heavy Stars/Scrubs approach tonight in all formats!
Marreese Speights ($3,500) March 16, 2017 – Mo Speights Chalk Night in DFS! I would be shocked if Big Mo is not the highest owned player on the slate by the end of tonight. With Blake and Jordan off the court, Speights is a fantasy point per minute producer and at minimum price on FanDuel, he is simply too cheap to ignore given his expanded role tonight.
Mason Plumlee ($5,800) With all the injury news to sort through in Denver, I would expect Plumdogg Millionaire to stay in the starting lineup at Center and get an elite spot against whoever the Clippers intend to play at PF and Center!
Plumlee has 34 or more FanDuel points in three of his last four games, hitting 6x value in each of those contests and should have no problem reaching that value tonight with so many injuries on both sides of the ball.
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR throughout the day for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!