Top 10 MLB sleeper teams for 2017

4. Tampa Bay Rays

Every year, the numbers and projection models seem to love the Rays. Their pitchers pile up strikeouts, and their offense is respectable. That works well in a vacuum of statistics, but the on-field results over the past three years have not played out that way. Tampa Bay has not made the playoffs since 2013, and has three losing seasons in a row, including a 68-win performance in 2016.

Starting pitching is what the Rays are built on, but the rotation struggled last year. Chris Archer did not look like himself for long stretches of the season, and lost 19 games. Jake Odorizzi was solid, finishing with a 3.69 ERA. As a whole, the staff finished eighth in the AL with a 4.20 ERA. They have to be better for the Rays to have a shot at contending. If Blake Snell and Alex Cobb can hold up over 30 starts, Tampa Bay has a real shot.

On offense, the Rays were very one dimensional last season. They hit 216 home runs, but struck out almost 1,500 times. Tampa Bay finished 14th in team batting average and 15th in on-base percentage, which led to too many solo home runs. Trading away Logan Forsythe strips the lineup of one of its better on-base hitters. Expect plenty of strikeouts and home runs from this lineup, but it may not be good enough to support the pitching over a 162-game schedule.