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5 reasons Kentucky won’t win the National Championship

By Will Schreefer

Mar 4, 2017; College Station, TX, USA; Kentucky Wildcats players look towards the bench during the first half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Reed Arena. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 4, 2017; College Station, TX, USA; Kentucky Wildcats players look towards the bench during the first half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Reed Arena. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /
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Kentucky is a threat to win it all most years, but there are reasons to think this isn’t one of them.

Kentucky tips off its NCAA tournament tonight against Northern Kentucky. As the 2-seed, it’s expected that Kentucky will win comfortably and move on for the opportunity to play into the Sweet 16. Kentucky earned its 2-seed with an excellent season and strong non-conference schedule. They only lost five games on the year, and the only bad loss was an away game to Tennessee in January where De’Aaron Fox wasn’t available due to an ankle injury.

There’s a lot to like about this Kentucky squad. They’ve got one of the best defenses in the country and a very good offense driven by its two superstar freshman guards. Malik Monk and De’Aaron Fox are likely the most talented backcourt in the country, though there are some times it doesn’t click. Though it’s again a roster heavy on youth, they’ve certainly got a chance to cut down the nets in Phoenix.

Unfortunately, getting there will be tough. As always in the NCAA tournament, there are plenty of potential roadblocks that can stop John Calipari and his team from getting to the promised land. Let’s run down the biggest five reasons Kentucky won’t win the national championship.

5. The Round of 32 matchup looks dangerous

While their opponent in the round of hasn’t been determined yet, all signs point to a meeting with the Wichita State Shockers. The criminally underseeded Shockers are currently among the top six teams in the country by KenPom‘s adjusted efficiencies. They’ll have to get through Dayton, a formidable mid-major on its own, to face Kentucky, but they’re currently favored by more than six points. It’d be a surprise if it was anyone but Wichita.

And so the Wildcats, supposed to be protected by their 2-seed, have pulled the most difficult second-round opponent possible. To make matters worse, Wichita State will be looking to pay Kentucky back for 2014. Wichita State, which was undefeated and had a 1-seed, pulled a talented and peaking 8th-seeded Kentucky in the second round and ended up losing in a close heartbreaker.

A matchup of two top-10 KenPom teams in the second round would be the story no matter what; with the history attached, it’s an even bigger event. While Kentucky would likely be favored, these percentage points add up when you’re considering national title chances. A different second-round opponent would make a big difference.

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