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Gennady Golovkin vs Daniel Jacobs: 3 keys to the fight

By Zachary Alapi

LONDON, ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 10: Gennady Golovkin (blue trunks) and Kell Brook (red trunks) in action during their World Middleweight Title contest at The O2 Arena on September 10, 2016 in London, England. (Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 10: Gennady Golovkin (blue trunks) and Kell Brook (red trunks) in action during their World Middleweight Title contest at The O2 Arena on September 10, 2016 in London, England. (Photo by Richard Heathcote/Getty Images) /
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Daniel Jacobs’ Punch Output

Gennady Golovkin can overwhelm his opponents in myriad ways. His hellacious power grounded in pinpoint accuracy is enough to drop fighters with a single shot; his jab can utterly befuddle and disarm opponents; his body shots literally make world class operators scream in agony; and he’s an elite boxer.

Daniel Jacobs is a phenomenal athlete with legitimate knockout power, and he also has a strong amateur background. Jacobs may be the most skilled boxer Golovkin has faced as a professional, but there’s one problem: Jacobs’ average punch output is low, which means he’ll have to rely on superior timing, speed and accuracy to actually win rounds against Golovkin (or to hurt him).

Jacobs averages 15.9 connects out of 47.5 punches thrown per round, which both fall below the division standards of 16.8 and 55.2, respectively. Golovkin, on the other hand, averages a robust — and practically absurd — 27.5 of 67.9 (per CompuBox via Inside HBO Boxing). This discrepancy was discussed on a recent episode of the HBO Boxing Podcast‘s “stat chat”, and it appears to loom large as a problematic issue for the challenger.

Jacobs won’t suddenly morph into a volume puncher, and nor should he. However, the key factor to monitor will be how much Jacobs’ output drops. If his attempted punches are hovering in the low to mid 30s, that means Golovkin will have stymied his rhythm by stinging him with the jab. But if Jacobs is hitting his typical marks, it will suggest that he’s not only comfortable, but that he’s perhaps using his movement and speed advantages to play effective matador to Golovkin’s bull.

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