Mets Yoenis Cespedes: Don’t Put Too Much Fantasy Stock into Spring Numbers

Spring Training really is what you make of it. Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes has done just that. After a big few weeks, can we count on even better fantasy numbers in 2017?

It’s not hard to miss Yoenis Cespedes this Spring. The dude is jacked, massive, and godly strong. He looks like he just stepped out of the same machine as Captain America.

On the field, Cespedes has been just as much a freak as he is in the weight room. He’s hit 5 HRs this Spring, batted seven runs in and sits ninth in the league with a .400 average. It’s everything we’ve come to expect from one of the most athletic outfielders in the game, but the hype surrounding Cespedes this year feels like it’s never been bigger.

The added muscle and size has only intensified people’s expectations. The change in attitude, however, is what really makes you wonder. A year ago Cespedes’ main goal in the Spring was to show up in the flashiest four wheels money could buy. This year, he’s waking up at 4:30 am to slay the weight room.

Perhaps Cespedes’ long and tiresome battle with a quad injury last year inspired this sudden workout craze. On the back of a 31 HR/86 RBI/.354 OBP season last year, is there really any room for improvement, though?

At the age of 31, you’d think not. Most outfielders are well and truly declining by this point, but bodybuilder Cespedes coupled with his fantastic Spring, projects for a potential 35-40HR, 100RBI type season.

If everything goes according to plan, that could very well happen. Before you go all in, just consider these points first.

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The Ever Longing Inconsistencies 

Cespedes has been a great hitter, don’t get it wrong. Last season he finished 20th in the league with a .530SLG, well above the league average. His BB% of 9.4% was an entire percent higher than the rest of the league, too.

Where Cespedes drives fantasy owners insane is during his droughts. While Cespedes gives you an average of five or so home runs a month, he has drastic three or four-day stretches where he’d be just as useful on the bench. Last season Cespedes was kept hitless in 43 games, and although injuries can be to blame, a lot of it comes down to the pitches he sees.

The fastball was used against Cespedes 39.2% of the time, and in a recurring theme, he struck out high and inside often. It’s a problem Cespedes has had with his strike zone forever, and one that opposing pitchers continue to exploit.

Cespedes tends to be most vulnerable when falling behind 0-1 at the plate. He struck out 76 times in that position last year, and this is perhaps the most frustrating part of his hitting – he’s so unpredictable. With men on base he struck out 50 times in 214 at-bats, and while he finished the season with 140 ground balls (67 less than the year before), Cespedes’ soft hit ball rate of 15.4% is now on its way back up.

To make things more confusing, the funny part of Cespedes’ hitting is the number of strikeouts he tallies against right-handers. Last season he struck out 89 times against righties but ironically hit 25 of his 31 homers against them.

Now comfortable in the Mets’ outfield and well into his senior years, it’s hard to say whether you’ll receive anything more than what we know from Cespedes or just a softer version. A lot of it still depends on figuring out the high fastball.

Mets Outfield Depth Could Result in More Injuries  

Cespedes played in 132 games last season, and for many of them, an ice pack was his best friend afterward. Nagging quad issues will take a toll on an everyday outfielder, hence Cespedes’ motivation to squat, squat, squat in the gym.

The day-to-day physical strain of baseball is one thing, but the Mets’ outfield schmozzle is another. If Jay Bruce does move to first base, Cespedes will remain in left field, requiring him to take on much of the responsibility while the Mets work out Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto and Juan Lagares. It’s nothing that we didn’t expect, but with talks of Cespedes perhaps moving to right field, it dumps a ton of pressure on Cespedes continually testing his legs out when those All-Star throws from the warning track to home plate are required.

So far the problem with Cespedes’ injuries is the timeliness. Last season he was hit hard in August, and for many fantasy owners, that is make or break time. If Cespedes shows any signs of problems early, it might be a long season.

Does Size Trump Stamina?

The added beefiness of Cespedes should equal more power, but there is such a thing as too much muscle in baseball. While Cespedes’ swing will probably be even more powerful, you only have to watch him trot the bases during Spring Training to realize how much slower he is.

One of the aspects of Cespedes’ game that suffered last year was steals. He’s probably never going to steal anywhere close to 10 bags again, but the quad injury limited him to a career-low 3 SB’s last season.

Having added five to ten pounds of muscle during the break, Cespedes will be relying a lot on the rest of the Mets’ offense to move him around the bases. If he enters the Home Run Derby, that added power will be nice, but it’s a lot more cargo to carry around on tired and sore joints.

Next: Fantasy Baseball 2017 Tier Rankings: Outfield

Cespedes remains a Top 20 outfielder this season, hands down. With the return of David Wright and Lucas Duda a lifetime away, Cespedes is the backbone of the offense and perhaps the defense.

Fantasy owners, the good news is you can draft Cespedes fairly cost-free. He’s available in the middle rounds, and for an affordable $25 in auction leagues.

Just remember, with Cespedes comes risks.