Top 10 MLB team over/under bets in 2017

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Mar 9, 2017; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Colorado Rockies first baseman Ian Desmond against Puerto Rico during a 2017 World Baseball Classic exhibition game at Salt River Fields. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /

Colorado Rockies

Current Bovada Win Total: 80.5

Following an intriguingly active offseason, the Colorado Rockies entered spring training as a hip pick to contend in the National League Wild Card race. The odds makers seem to agree. Bovada’s current posted win total of 80.5 would be a five-win improvement over last year.

The biggest addition of the offseason was Ian Desmond, and the club intends to play the former Nationals shortstop and Rangers center fielder at first base. Unfortunately, Desmond broke his left hand during spring training and will miss the beginning of the season.

Desmond was great in the first half last season, but struggled after the All-Star break. Playing in Colorado should help keep his offensive production up, but hand injuries are tricky and the Rockies play half their games on the road. Plus, he’s playing his third different position in three years – and pegging him to play first was a head-scratcher to begin with.

Nevertheless, the addition of Desmond makes an already explosive lineup even better. Nolan Arenado is arguably the best overall player in baseball, and has led the National League in home runs, RBI and total bases in each of the last two seasons while playing Gold Glove defense at third. Carlos Gonzalez can still hit the ball out of any ballpark, Trevor Story exploded onto the scene with 27 homers as a rookie, D.J. LeMahieu is the reigning NL batting champion and Charlie Blackmon was in contention.

Projections:

PECOTA: 77
Fangraphs: 78

But, as always in Colorado, the pitching will determine the outcome of the season. New manager Bud Black, a former pitcher himself, will have his hands full. The bullpen was so bad in 2016 – Rockies relievers posted an MLB worst 5.13 ERA – that it likely cost the club a chance at a .500 record. New additions Greg Holland and Mike Dunn should help some, but that’s a tough mountain to climb. Also, the starting rotation has potential, but received a huge blow with top starter Chad Bettis’ most recent cancer diagnosis.

Overall, the lineup is fantastic, and the team has made defense a priority. There may be a drop in value due to the time Desmond and Bettis will miss, but the Rockies entered the spring overrated and the pitching staff simply isn’t good enough to pull off a five-win turnaround.

Prediction: Under 80.5 wins

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