DraftKings Late NBA Picks March 18
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Late NBA Picks March 18
The NBA still has eight games in the main DraftKings tournament despite the NCAA tournament making its mark. Since DraftKings took away the NCAA basketball tournaments, we have to “settle” for the NBA. Fine by me! Let’s take a look at who to target from those eight games.
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The money line last night was at a modest 270.5. My best lineup was at 264.25. I hit on Jason Smith, but a below average game from Bradley Beal hurt a lot. As did the one from Avery Bradley.
The winning lineup was all the way up at 375 DraftKings points. He had James Harden, which any winning lineup had to with his ridiculous 83 points. He also capitalized on big games from Robin Lopez and Jae Crowder, but what put the lineup over the top was 54 DraftKings points from 1.4% owned Solomon Hill. Say what?
I can’t stress enough how important it is to watch our Twitter feed right up until lock time. We will try and relay the information out to you as soon as we can, along with any lineup changes. If you aren’t able to do that, my best advice is to lay off of anyone that may be injured. As far as the healthy scratches, we are all in the same boat. The only ones we really have a shot to switch out anymore are the games that tip at or before 7:30 eastern.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
James Harden ($12,400): Mr. 83 is back in action, and against Denver! There is reason to temper our excitement though since if this game gets out of hand, Harden will rest early and often. He only had 44.25 in the first meeting with Denver. The only time he has been held that low since the break was by the Clippers. 5x value is within reach.
John Wall ($9,300): Wall continued to struggle from the floor last night, but he racked up a career-high 20 assists against the Bulls. That still kept him well above 5x value. Wall has broken his personal assist record twice this month already. He has a high floor if he keeps this up.
Honorable Mention:
Mike Conley ($7,100): Conley has been a nice bargain lately. He has only been under 5x value twice in the last ten games. He picked up 33.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Spurs. However, considering the way Conley is attacking right now, it’s hard to see him not topping that mark.
Lou Williams ($5,800): Williams torched Denver twice while a member of the Lakers, putting up 85.75 DraftKings points in those two games. After his best game as a Rocket on Wednesday against his former team, he was back to his cold shooting ways against the Pelicans. He carries a big risk right now, but as we saw against the Lakers, his ceiling here could be even higher when his shots are falling.
Dark Horses:
Jamal Murray ($4,900): The minutes are up as promised, but the production isn’t quite consistent. However, if Murray is playing 30 minutes a game, his ceiling is pretty high. There will be open shots for the taking against Houston tonight.
Deron Williams ($4,400): The Cavs have no reason to run Kyrie Irving out there if his knee isn’t 100 percent. That is the same knee that he fractured in Game 1 of the 2015 Finals, which gives them even more reason to be cautious. There is no official word yet on Irving’s status, but I doubt he plays. Which makes D-Will a great bargain tonight, even against the Clippers.
My picks: Harden(PG), Conley(G), Murray(UTIL); Conley(PG)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
Jimmy Butler ($8,000): Wade put up 47.75 DraftKings points with Dwyane Wade out. Expect more of that down the stretch since Butler will be relied upon to take over the scoring load. He put up 45.5 DraftKings points on the Jazz the first time around. Since the offense goes through Butler once again, he should be up around that mark once again.
Klay Thompson ($7,200): Thompson has been the one picking up the pace with Kevin Garnett out, not Stephen Curry. While Curry remains mostly cold from the floor, Thompson is 45-87 from the field over the last four games. He has always been streaky, and right now, he is on a very hot streak. Thompson picked up 36.75 DraftKings points in the first tilt with Milwaukee. He should have at least that tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Will Barton ($6,900): Barton blew up with 50.25 DraftKings points, against the Clippers no less, on Thursday with Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler out. Both Gallinari and Chandler are out again, so Barton has the potential to go off again. I don’t know that I would expect him at 50 again, but in the 40’s is certainly a possibility.
Gary Harris ($5,900): Only on a day where Barton set the fantasy world afire would owners complain about Harris’s solid 30 point showing on Thursday. Harris is still a consistent producer, but Barton is the one with all the upside, it seems.
Dark Horses:
Joe Ingles ($4,400): Rodney Hood is out again, so Ingles will get another start at shooting guard. He doesn’t have significant upside, but he has had between 24 and 28 DraftKings points in each of his three starts for Hood this time around. He is a solid source of 5-6x value, but don’t expect anything more.
Tony Allen ($3,800): Allen will see a little more time on the court with Chandler Parsons out. Vince Carter is a great story, and will be good for occasional flashes of brilliance, but he will hurt your lineups more often than he helps. He is older than me, after all. Allen has three straight games with more than 21 DraftKings points. He should be in that area again.
My pick: Barton(SG), Allen(F); Butler(SG), Barton(F), Harris(G)
Small Forwards
Best Bets:
Kawhi Leonard ($10,000): LeBron James struggled mightily against the Clippers in the first meeting, so I will look towards Leonard, who has had two huge games since being held out for rest last weekend. He has 109.25 DraftKings points in those two games. I would temper expectations against the Grizzlies, but 5x value wouldn’t surprise me.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,700): Giannis put up 48 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Warriors. Of course, Kevin Durant was present for that game. The absence of Durant leaves more open space on the court for Giannis to operate. That is not a good thing for the Warriors.
Honorable Mention:
Khris Middleton ($6,500): Middleton dropped 30 on the Lakers last night, but only netted 33.5 DraftKings points. He is now playing at least 30 minutes per game, and if he gets the scoring going along with everything else, he can be a steal once again. There is a little bit of risk involved with his price up here, but the minutes limits seem to be off.
Otto Porter ($6,500): Smith had a huge game in place of Markieff Morris last night, so Porter didn’t really pick up any extra work. That said, if Morris doesn’t play tonight, what are the odds of Smith lighting it up two nights in a row? Porter could end up absorbing some of the production. He has been consistently near 5x anyway. He could go a little ways above tonight.
Dark Horses:
Matt Barnes ($4,100): His production hasn’t been consistent, but he is still better than Patrick McCaw. The Warriors like to keep their rotation fresh, so Barnes will continue to see good minutes. They need his outside shooting shooting right now, so he is a low risk option that could provide a lot of points if he gets hot.
Joe Johnson ($4,000): With both Hood and Derrick Favors out, Johnson has seen a lot of run lately as well. He has three straight games of more than 5x value. His ceiling is limited, but at this price 7x value is not out of the question will all of the injuries that Utah has right now.
My Pick: Ingles(SF); Middleton(SF)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Draymond Green ($8,000): He and Giannis could have quite a battle tonight if Giannis starts at power forward. Green doesn’t hit value very often, but he is close most of the time. He is a double-double waiting to happen on any given night, and he produces across several different categories. That gives him a solid floor if nothing else.
Blake Griffin ($8,000): Griffin was a little under 5x value in the first meeting with Cleveland, but I would consider him here tonight since Kevin Love is not at 100 percent or at a full minute load yet. Griffin can dominate against a smaller Derrick Williams or Channing Frye, but the Cavs may elect to put Tristan Thompson on him if it gets out of hand.
Honorable Mention:
Frank Kaminsky ($5,500): Cody Zeller has taken the starting job back, but Frank the Tank still essentially played starter’s minutes while Marvin Williams saw a significant decrease in production. Right now, Kaminksy is the most offensively gifted, so he is a little more of a sure thing to hit value.
Dark Horses:
Nikola Mirotic ($4,400): The bargain shoppers at power forward will find all kinds of options with poor matchups. Mirotic fits that bill. He did put up 18.25 DraftKings points in 20 minutes against the Jazz the first time around. He will see more minutes than that tonight, and has three straight games of at least 7x value. He is worth the risk.
Kenneth Faried ($4,300): Plumlee and Juancho Hernangomez will still pick up some minutes up front, but Faried has been a master of doing a lot with little minutes. He has to with the rotations the way they are in Denver. Faried is a bit of a risk, but he has the potential to be a huge value play.
My pick: Mirotic(PF); Mirotic(PF)
Center
Best Bets:
Nikola Jokic ($10,700): Jokic is a walking double-double, but with his price this high, you need a little more than that. Well, you’re in luck. Jokic is one of the few centers that has the ability to put up triple-doubles, like he did on Thursday night. Houston is not a terrible defensive team, but Jokic does so much that he has a level floor even if he doesn’t hit value.
Rudy Gobert ($7,200): Gobert picked up 40.25 DraftKings points in the first game against the Bulls. What really has me optimistic here though is the fact that Gobert went nuts on Tristan Thompson on Thursday. He put up 53.75 DraftKings points against one of the best defensive centers in the league. What will he do for an encore?
Honorable Mention:
Mason Plumlee ($6,000): Plumlee has three straight games of more than 35 DraftKings points. Denver is liking the look of him and Jokic on the floor at the same time, so Plumlee is the safer option of the frontcourt bargains for Denver, and what a bargain he has been! Enjoy this run. It may not last when Chandler gets back.
Clint Capela ($5,400): Capela was dominated by the New Orleans Towers up front last night. He will look to get back on track against Denver. Capela doesn’t have a ton of upside, but he has been good enough to be around 5x value for most of the last month.
Dark Horses:
Marcin Gortat ($5,000): The Polish Hammer has had a very cold stretch here lately, but Charlotte could be the cure for that. The Hornets have struggled against centers this year. Gortat has 62.75 DraftKings points in two games against them this year, which would put him at 6x value if he can do it again.
Zaza Pachulia ($4,000): Are you looking for 5x value, no questions asked? Then Pachulia is your hook-up. He has also topped 30 twice in the last three games. He is a great bargain right now, even though he only plays 20 minutes a game. He has little upside, but if a guy this cheap gets you 30, are you really going to complain?
My pick: Plumlee(C); Gobert(C), Pachulia(UTIL)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, and our picks for NHL and the PGA tour! We even have some EPL picks coming your way! I will also have the round by round picks for the NCAA Tournament, the place where your bracket is never busted. Once again, make sure to follow our Twitter feed leading up to tipoff!