DraftKings Early NBA Picks March 19

There are as many NBA as NCAA games today, but three of them are in the afternoon. It splits it up a little more evenly. There is little star power during the day, especially with Isaiah Thomas sitting, so we can use whomever we want and still have money left over. In fact, spending top dollar may not be in your best interest.

Point Guards

Best Bets:

Tyler Ulis ($6,500): Orlando is statistically good against point guards, and Ulis still racked up 36.5 DraftKings points on them. Detroit is also tough on the point, but seeing what Ulis has done the last two games has me thinking that he can hit 5x value against anyone right now.

Marcus Smart ($6,100): His price went up with Thomas out, but his production didn’t. He was still close to 5x value, but most of the Boston damage was done on the interior against Brooklyn. It may be again against Philadelphia.

Honorable Mention:

Jeremy Lin ($5,900): The Nets still aren’t giving Lin more than 30 minutes per game. They really have no reason to since they are out of contention. Lin has been able to hit 5x value in eight straight games despite a minutes limit. Don’t rule it out against Dallas.

Reggie Jackson ($5,600): Using Jackson is a headache. He still isn’t that far ahead of Ish Smith on the depth chart, so if he has an off game early, he may not get a chance to turn it on. Phoenix is a great matchup for him though, and it may be worth rolling the dice for today on a short slate.

Dark Horses:

T.J. McConnell ($5,300): McConnell put up 85.75 DraftKings points in three prior games against Boston. That is comfortably over 5x value. He could hit even more lofty goals today since he doesn’t have to deal with Isaiah Thomas. He in an interesting play today.

Terry Rozier ($3,600): Rozier saw about a ten minute increase in playing time with Thomas out, but he didn’t do much with his extended minutes. Rozier has a lot of upside, but he is a very risky play. He will be the separation you need, or the bust that keeps you out of the money. There wont be an in-between.

My picks: Jackson(PG)

Shooting Guards

Best Bets:

Devin Booker ($7,300): Price really is not much of an object in small tournaments like this. You aren’t necessarily chasing value as you are the max amount of points available. In a slate where the highest priced player is still below $8,000, you can use whoever you want. Just chase the points, not the value. Booker may not hit value, but he has the most upside at the position this afternoon.

Avery Bradley ($6,300): Since the Boston guards really didn’t do much against Brooklyn, it’s hard to tell how they are going to look against Philly today. Bradley has 81.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Sixers so far this year. Will he get that today?

Honorable Mention:

Seth Curry ($5,800): Curry played just 17 minutes in what was a dreadful showing by the entire team against Philadelphia on Friday. He should get back on track against a Brooklyn team that gave up 32 DraftKings points to him in the first meeting nine days ago.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5,100): KCP racked up 40 DraftKings points in the first game against Phoenix, but he has had an awful March. He has only hit value once all month, and has been in single digits in DraftKings points twice. There is some potential here, but it’s hard to ignore how cold he is right now.

Dark Horse:

Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($3,700): The Sixers know what they have in Nik Stauskas, Gerald Henderson, and Robert Covington for that matter, so they have given more run to Timothe lately. He has at least 5x value in four straight games, and has played 23 or more minutes in all of those. He is a sneaky play this afternoon.

My pick: Booker(SG), Caldwell-Pope(G)

Small Forwards

Best Bet:

T.J. Warren ($6,900): Warren has two straight games of more than 40 DraftKings points. Calling for that kind of production against Detroit is a tough sell, especially since they held him to 23.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting. He could bust here today, but the fact remains that he is playing well right now.

Robert Covington ($6,900): Covington only played 26 minutes in the blowout win over Dallas on Friday, but he still picked up 36.75 DraftKings points in that one. Covington remains a solid value play on any day. He has 67.5 DraftKings points in two games against Boston this year. 5x value is within reach.

Honorable Mention:

Harrison Barnes ($6,200): Barnes had by far his worst game of the season against Philly on Friday, but you can say the same for most of the Dallas team. Brooklyn will be much easier for him to get back on track against. Barnes, doesn’t have a lot of upside, but he is normally about as consistent as they come.

Jae Crowder ($6,000): He ate Brooklyn alive on Friday, racking up 45.5 DraftKings points in one of his best games of the season. Crowder has double digit rebounds in five of nine March games, which is giving him that high floor we came to appreciate before a February slump.

Dark Horse:

Caris LeVert ($4,100): LeVert was shut down by Boston on Friday, and Dallas certainly has the ability to do that as well, but he was still close to 4x value. He has had some good games recently, and his minutes haven’t gone down at all. There is reason to think his production will improve.

My Pick: Barnes(SF)

Power Forwards

Best Bet:

Dario Saric ($7,900): Saric has the distinction of being the highest priced player that will take the court his afternoon. He has the ability to put up a lot of points in a little time. Saric is one of the few pure shooters that the Sixers have right now, so he is going to get plenty of shots in this one.

Honorable Mention:

Tobias Harris ($6,000): Harris struggled a little bit late last week after moving back to the bench in favor of Jon Leuer. That experiment has been scratched, and the team has said that Harris will start at power forward for the rest of the year. His production wont change a whole lot, but he should be a consistent source of 5x value once again.

Trevor Booker ($5,000): Word is that Booker will play today after missing the last two games. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson was a solid contributor with Booker out, but Booker is the better rebounder and a little easier to rely on. There isn’t nearly as much fluctuation in his output.

Dark Horse:

Dwight Powell ($3,000): Powell has seen solid minutes lately, and should again against a weak Brooklyn front. You likely wont need to go this cheap, but just in case….

My pick: Saric(PF), Harris(F)

Center

Best Bets:

Andre Drummond ($7,100): Phoenix is tough on centers, but Drummond is one of the best rebounders around, and Phoenix is undersized. Drummond racked up 46 DraftKings points on Phoenix in the first meeting. He has a good shot at doing it again with the long Tyson Chander out of the rotation.

Al Horford ($6,800): Horford has not faced the Sixers since they blew up their frontcourt. They aren’t all that big up there anymore. Not that Horford is huge, but his athleticism is going to be really tough for Holmes and the Sixers to deal with.

Honorable Mention:

Nerlens Noel ($5,500): Dallas has yet to really turn Noel loose since they are worried about his knee. He has had a couple of big games in Big D, but his inconsistency makes him a tough sell. He is playing Brooklyn today though, who is really weak up front. Can Noel put up big numbers again?

Richaun Holmes ($5,200): Holmes has at least 5x value in three of the last four games. Both him and Okafor are splitting minutes about right down the middle. For now, that caps the fantasy value of both. Both of them routinely hit 5x value, but not much more. Until one horse pulls ahead in the race, there is risk involved and little upside here.

Jahlil Okafor ($5,100): Okafor’s output has been better than Holmes lately because he is a more polished offensive player. With Boston’s relative weakness up front, it could be worth it to play both to them this afternoon.

Dark Horse:

Alex Len ($4,200): Len is back in the rotation, but his output remains very inconsistent, which makes him really hard to count on. That said, Alan Williams has seen his price rise to a point where 5x value is very hard for him to reach. So long as Len is getting minutes, he is a threat to have a big game. Or a miserable one. What will he do for you?

My pick: Horford(C), Okafor(UTIL)

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