Xavier has surged late in the season due to an impressive showing on defense
The Xavier Musketeers have been a curious case this year. For much of the regular season, they were maligned for not beating any elite teams. Even though they were cruising along, nobody seemed to know just how good they were. They had beaten a slew of solid teams, but lost every time they faced off with one of the best teams in the nation. Curious as to whether or not they could make the leap, few people considered them contenders.
The door seemed to slam shut on any chance they had to get to the next level in late January. When star guard Edmund Sumner went down, most figured that Xavier would go down with him. After ripping off three straight surprising wins without the sophomore, they lost their next six. All six were to good teams, and the critics were validated. Chris Mack’s team moved from a tournament lock closer to the bubble. A poor performance in the Big East Tournament and they might not have made the field of 68. What they have managed to do since, however, has been nothing short of shocking.
Since losing those six games in a row, Xavier is 5-1 and on their way to the Sweet 16. They are one of the two Big East teams to make the second weekend, after seven were selected for the tournament. During this run, they have beaten two Kenpom top-25 teams after being 0-6 in such games prior. Their only loss came to a Creighton team ranked 27th by Kenpom in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament. The Musketeers snuck into the NCAA Tournament as an No. 11 seed, and they haven’t looked back. They were matched up with Maryland in the first round, a game that many, myself included, picked as prime for an upset. After that they dispatched of No. 3 seed Florida State with relative ease.
Xavier’s late surge has come in an unconventional way — on the strength of their defense. For a team stronger on offense than defense, such an incredible turnaround on that end seemed unlikely. While they are the 29th-best offense in the country by Kenpom’s adjusted efficiency, their defense is a mediocre 67th. The room for improvement was on that end of the court, and it appears that Xavier has taken that challenge.
For the entire season, Xavier has given up 1.04 points per possession (PPP) on defense. They’ve scored an unadjusted 1.10. During their most recent 12 games (the six straight losses followed by the 5-1 stretch), their numbers in those areas show why they have been winning and losing. In those losses, Xavier’s offense barely moved from its season-long pace, but their defense was porous. In their wins, the offense has been marginally better, but the defense has been the star of the show. Take a look at this chart, where wins are highlighted in green and losses in red:
That raw defensive efficiency of 1.22 PPP in losses would rank dead last in Division I for the season. The 0.96 number they put up in the wins, however, would put them just outside the top 25. That’s a differential of 0.26 PPP, or about one point every four possessions. At Xavier’s average unadjusted pace of 68 possessions per game, that translates to giving up nearly 18 additional points per game.
So how has Xavier’s defense suddenly gone from one of the worst to one of the best? It could have been a matter of losing Sumner. He was a solid defender and not having such a big contributor play likely hurt the team’s continuity. Maybe the Musketeers just took some time to get that continuity back before locking in for the stretch run. It very easily could have been something else, though. Let’s take a deeper look into why Xavier’s defense has been among the best in the nation in recent weeks.
Over the full season, Xavier was one of the worst teams in the nation in 2-point shot defense, allowing opponents to shoot 52.6 percent. That number ballooned in the losses over our 12 game sample, as opponents shot 57.5 percent on 2-pointers. In their wins, they weren’t much better than their average, allowing 50.9 percent of 2s to go in. Defending 2s is one of the least random or luck-driven areas of defense, so it seems that their defense hasn’t been that much better for the most part in their recent good play.
We see a much bigger difference when looking at their 3-point defense. In the losses, opponents shot a whopping 41.1 percent on just over 22 attempts per game. In the wins, they have seen a paltry 23.8 percent of their 21 attempts per game fall. We know that the best way to defend the 3 is by preventing it, so that difference can be largely chalked up to luck. Had their opponents shot the season average 33.2 percent Xavier allowed over those five wins, they would have made 10 more 3s. That’s an additional six points per game, more than enough to swing some games in their opposition’s favor.
Is Xavier’s improvement really just luck? It’s a small sample size of just a few games, so it’s not impossible. Still though, anyone watching Xavier’s dismantling of Florida State this weekend could tell you that the team is playing well. I decided to look into it deeper. In the wins, the Musketeers’ opponents have shot slightly above average from the free throw line on slightly more than the average amount of attempts Xavier concedes. They haven’t been limiting free points, one of the best ways to improve team defense quickly.
One area that Xavier did improve in was preventing opponents from getting their shot off. They didn’t force double-digit turnovers in any of their six straight losses. Aside from forcing nine against Florida State this weekend, they forced 10 or more in every other game since the losing streak. Since they have been relying on some luck to stifle efficiency, it makes sense that Xavier has been limiting chances to score. Cutting down even a few shots per game could translate to several points, a big swing.
Related: Updated 2017 NCAA Tournament Bracket
Creating additional turnovers doesn’t just benefit a defense in terms of taking away shot attempts. If even a few of those extra turnovers were of the live ball variety, that could help the Musketeers create offense and transition opportunities. According to the numbers at Hoop-Math, Xavier has an effective field goal percentage (which takes into account the value of 3-pointers) of 61.9 percent within 10 seconds of a steal on the other end. That’s more easy points for an already-dangerous offense.
Their most convincing performance was also their most recent. Florida State was arguably the best team they’ve beaten this year, and they dominated them throughout, winning by 25. They were helped by Florida State, a team that shoots 34.7 percent from 3, making just 4-of-21 attempts from behind the arc. Regardless, it was an incredible performance as they held the Seminoles to just 0.97 PPP. For the season, Florida State manages 1.13 PPP, 20th in the nation. Such an incredible defensive performance by Xavier gives them momentum heading forward.
They’ll have their hands full in the Sweet 16 as they face off with a loaded Arizona team that ranks 18th nationally in offensive efficiency. The Wildcats also shoot nearly 40 percent from 3 as a team, so Xavier’s work (or luck, as it may be) in limiting opponent shooting will be tested. If they can keep forcing turnovers, it might not matter. Arizona is one of the best out there at protecting the ball, so this will be Xavier’s biggest challenge yet.
Next: NCAA Tournament 2017: Predicting the Sweet 16
Xavier is as hot a team as there is in college basketball right now, and it’s been because of their defense. After beating a No. 6 seed and a No. 3 seed, nothing left in front of them should inspire fear. They’ve shown they can hang with the best and a win over Arizona on Thursday would prove it further. If their defense can keep playing they way they have and feeding their high-octane offense, they will have a good shot to emerge as the West’s Final Four representative. If they do, their biggest fan will surely be happy.