Testing NBA waters worked to perfection for Justin Jackson

We are just one year removed from an innovative, and long overdue, rule allowing underclassmen in the college ranks to test NBA waters before signing with an agent. This rule gives players the opportunity to attend NBA Draft combines, receive invaluable feedback from numerous teams and then ultimately make the decision to stay in the draft or return to college.

While players like Valparaiso’s Alec Peters (Horizon League Player of the Year) and Purdue’s Caleb Swanigan (Big Ten Player of the Year) returned to school for massive seasons after testing the waters, nobody increased their NBA stock more than North Carolina’s Justin Jackson.

Jackson arrived at Chapel Hill as a vaunted five-star recruit but spent his first two seasons as the third wheel behind Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige. Even with rather pedestrian averages of 12.2 points, 3.9 rebounds and 2.8 assists as a sophomore, Jackson had NBA interest.

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He ultimately opted to return to North Carolina releasing this statement about the process: “I’m glad I had the chance to enter the draft and attend the combine where I was able to meet with a number of NBA executives and test my game against some of the top players in the country, but after discussing it with my parents and coaches and praying over this decision, the best choice for my basketball future is to return to school and play for the Tar Heels next season”.

This decision begs the question, what feedback did Jackson receive from NBA personnel. The main skill he was told he needed to improve was his outside shooting. In Jackson’s first two years at Carolina, the 6-foot-8 wing made a combined 63 shots 3-pointers, but shot just 29.7 percent from deep. As a player with less-than-plus athleticism and average defensive metrics, he needed to prove he could be a legitimate threat from 3-point range at the next level.

Jackson not only took the comments to heart, but dove in head first. Jackson become one of the most lethal 3-point shooting wings in the entire country during his junior campaign. With his 98 made 3s he nearly tripled his sophomore output and set the UNC single-season record for made 3s to boot.

Not only did he knock down 3s at an alarming rate (2.7 made per game), he made his game revolve around being a knock-down shooter from outside. This added threat made him even more efficient attacking off the dribble, and as you can see he’s become more and more adept at shooting 3s off the dribble each and every season at Carolina as well. The plethora of 3s did not take away from his attacking mentality either as he made (80) and attempted (107) more free throws than ever before as well.

This shot chart is a masterpiece of epic proportions and is the main reason most experts have Jackson going in the first round of June’s NBA Draft.

Along with adding a 3-point shot, Jackson was told to bulk up and become a more aggressive scorer for his team. In previous years he didn’t have the chance to be the alpha scoring option on the team, but with seniors departing Jackson snatched the role willingly averaging 18.1 points and 4.7 rebounds so far this season — both career highs.

Jackson has vaulted to the lottery in DraftExpress’ latest mock draft, which is crazy considering in January he was all the way down to no. 39! In a matter of two months Jackson and his 6-foot-11 wingspan have made believers of most draft experts. There are still many questions for Jackson on defense as he is marginal both on and off ball, however he can now lean on his deadly outside shot to compensate for what he lacks on that end.

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How deadly is Jackson as a wing shooter heading into the 2017 NBA Draft? Well, going back to the 2010 Draft, he has hit more 3s in his final college season than any other 6-foot-8 player drafted in the first round! More than Doug McDermott, Paul George, Gordon Hayward, Rodney Hood and even Brandon Ingram.

One season of lethal shooting could be construed as an aberration, but all indications point to Justin Jackson, the marksman, being here to stay.

*Stats for this piece were derived from basketball-reference and hoop-math