How Michigan’s two-man game of Walton and Wagner is driving the Wolverines
Breaking down how Derrick Walton Jr. and Moritz Wagner enable each other, and how their chemistry is key to Michigan’s postseason run
We’ve heard the beats of this story a lot in the wake of Michigan’s Sweet 16 run. The team jet slides off the runway after an aborted takeoff attempt. Derrick Walton Jr. gets five stitches after banging his knee on the emergency door. The team, united by a near-death experience, comes together to win the Big 10 tournament. Now, they look like the most dangerous team in the country, with a six-game postseason win streak and nothing to lose.
It sounds great — really, because it is. But sometimes narrative can come at the expense of truth: and the truth is, these Wolverines were always dangerous. With two Elite Eights in his three tournament appearances before this year, and now three Sweet 16’s in four tries, John Beilein is becoming a force in March. The offensive system and style he instills in his teams is very difficult to defend, especially in one-off situations. Michigan consistently ranks among the best offenses and 3-point shooting teams in the country, never turns the ball over, and hits their free throws.
This year, every single rotation player averaging more than 10 minutes a game can shoot from beyond the arc. The Wolverines are up to No. 3 in adjusted efficiency for offense, 38.6 percent on 3-pointers, and have scored 1.20 points per possession in their last six games. Look at this shot chart showing Michigan’s offense since the start of the Big 10 tournament.
They’re hitting 60 percent of their 2-pointers, 39 percent of their 3-pointers, and 51 percent from the field. The offense is hitting its stride at the right time.
At the center of the run are two players: Derrick Walton Jr., and Moritz (“Moe”) Wagner. The two have taken turns starring in March Madness. First, Walton torched Oklahoma State in the first round’s 92-91 barnburner, leading his team with 26 points, 11 assists, and 6-of-9 shooting on 3-pointers. Then it was Moe’s turn, as the big German hit 11 of his 14 shots to key the team in its shocking takedown of Louisville.
The two have been instrumental so far in this NCAA tournament run. But it’s nothing new — they’ve been integral to the team’s success all season, and each has played a huge part in the ascendancy of the other. Let’s take a deeper dive, and look at how this dynamic duo feeds off each other and ultimately fuels the Michigan Wolverines.
Derrick Walton Jr.
The 6-foot-1 point guard is the beating heart of the Wolverines. He trash talks, drains pull-up 3s, and leads the charge as the key orchestrator of Michigan’s 3-heavy attack. He has asserted himself as a senior, taking more shots while upping his scoring average from 11.4 to 15.4 points per game.
Earlier in his career, he was content to take more of a backseat as a shooter and secondary playmaker. There are some great stories from a few days ago that dive deeper into the change in his mental game this season — I suggest you check them out. This one’s all about the stats, though. Check out his shot chart below:
The Wolverines are missing quite a few games for these shot charts, so I won’t bother listing all of them. A total of 19 games of their 37 are not represented. Full shooting stats are pulled from hoop-math.com
He’s been incredible on 3-pointers this year, hitting 41.9 percent of his 227 attempts. More impressively, a huge number of these attempts come off the dribble — just 65.3 percent of his makes have been assisted. Per Synergy Sports numbers, Walton Jr. has scored 1.048 points per possession when taking jumpers off the dribble in the half-court, good for the 90th percentile among qualifying players. This is a big improvement over last year’s 0.63 PPP mark.
I mean, this isn’t fair.
And this ability to shoot off the dribble is driving another part of his game — prowess in the pick-and-roll. The gravity created by his pull-up ability forces difficult decisions for defenders. Check out the clip below.
Walton Jr. pulls two defenders with his threat to both shoot and drive, opening up the lane for Mark Donnal, who finishes the And-1.
The point guard has been one of the most efficient pick-and-roll ball handlers in the country. As the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll, he’s scored 0.91 points per possession (83rd percentile). Where he’s really improved this season is in finding his partner on the roll. Per Synergy’s numbers, his pick-and-roll derived offense — including passes — generates 1.03 points per possession (86th percentile). Per the above linked article, Waltons runs around nine pick-and-roll possessions per game: ~3.5 as a shooter, and ~5.5 as a passer.
His combination of off-the-dribble shooting and passing prowess makes him one of the most dangerous pick-and-roll point guards left in the tournament.
Moritz Wagner
While Walton Jr. has undoubtedly developed his own skills, key too has been the emergence of Moritz Wagner. The second-year big man has become a big contributor for this Michigan squad. After averaging under ten minutes and three points per game as a freshman, the German native is up to 24 minutes and 12.2 points per game this year.
He’s developed in a number of areas — likely the most crucial is his outside game. After barely registering as a threat from outside as a freshman, the big man is taking three 3-pointers a game, and has canned nearly 41 percent of them on the season. Here’s a glance at his incomplete shot chart — full information is included below.
In all, he’s taken 110 3-pointers on the season, and hit 45 of them. Wagner has even shown touch from 2-point jumper range: per hoop-math, he’s hit 52.1 percent of his long 2s. He currently ranks among the most dangerous jump shooters in college basketball – his 1.17 points per possession are in the 91st percentile (Synergy).
This newfound marksmanship from deep — and the limitless amounts of space in a Michigan offense — are also helping fuel his post-up game. The young big man scores nearly a point per possession (0.984 PPP, 84th percentile) on post-ups, which comprise 15.7 percent of his offense. Just look how easy this is for him (first clip).
He gets the switch on a pick-and-roll with Walton Jr., and makes easy work of Deng Adel with no other Louisville players within five feet of the rim.
Michigan is the perfect environment for his skills — everyone can shoot, so it’s really tough to double off the perimeter in the post. His own ability to shoot also encourages switches on Walton-Wagner pick-and-rolls, giving him easy mismatches to exploit on the block. The partnership has been key for both players in more ways than one.
The Wagner-Walton Synergy
Simply, Wagner and Walton Jr. are different players when the other is off the court. For starters, Wagner barely plays without Walton Jr. Per hooplens.com, Wagner has spent 128 offensive possessions on the court this without Walton Jr. – just 5.3 percent of Michigan’s total possessions. Using play-by-play data, I isolated Wagner’s stats with and without Walton on the court.
For whatever reason, play-by-plays for Michigan from ESPN are missing from Marquette, Furman, and Northwestern. Stats don’t include those games. L2P’s are long two-pointers, S2P’s are short ones.
He’s taken just six 3-pointers in these minutes, but has only hit one of them. Per the sampled games, Moe Wagner is currently hitting nearly 45 percent of his 3-pointers when he shares the floor with Derrick Walton Jr. Per hooplens, the team has been kind of a disaster in these limited minutes — the margin is at -26 points per 100 possessions.
When Walton Jr. is on the court, he also sets up Moe in a big way: 55 percent of Moe’s assisted baskets are dished by Derrick.
You can see a dramatic shift in the type of player Walton Jr. is with and without Wagner, too. Check below for a similar chart to the above — though there’s a much larger sample.
Walton Jr. has been an excellent shooter in either case. But where you can really see the benefit to his game is around the rim. His conversion percentage near the basket jumps by nearly 20 percentage points when Wagner is on the floor, a huge boon for a point guard who has struggled with his ability to take it to the rack off the dribble.
And that’s not the only interesting thing. Not shown above is the other significant part of Walton Jr.’s game — his playmaking. He’s currently averaging about 5.0 assists a game, and his 26.8 assist percentage is the highest of his career. There are some serious indicators that much of this is a product of Moe — or, at least, helped by his presence.
With Wagner out there, Walton Jr.’s A/TO ratio is 2.92, with 111 assists amassed to 203 shots. When Wagner’s gone? Walton’s still shooting — he’s logged 154 of them — but his assists crater. He’s totaled 57 assists during this time to 22 turnovers.
Wagner’s been key in allowing Walton Jr. to assume a better playmaking/scoring balance as a point guard. A big part of this is Moe’s prowess in the pick-and-pop game – not only does his shooting provide Derrick with assist opportunities, it also opens up the floor for dribble-drive penetration. The synergy between the two on the offensive end has driven much of their individual success as players this year.
Why it’s key for sustaining Michigan’s run
While we’ve mainly talked about the offensive benefits for the team in the Walton Jr.-Wagner pairing, there’s an unmentioned benefit we haven’t touched on yet: defense. Michigan as a whole can struggle as a defensive team — per KenPom, they’re currently the 73rd-best defense.
But there is a combination that changes that. Surprise! It’s Wagner-Wilson Jr., again. Per hooplens numbers, the combo are tied for the best PPP differential among heavily used combinations – and their 96 points per 100 possessions mark on defense is the best from among that group.
On-off numbers are notoriously noisy in college. But Wagner also has the best defensive on-off mark among the big rotation, which includes DJ Wilson, Mark Donnal, and Duncan Robinson. With Wagner on the floor, the defense is 8 points per 100 possessions better; none of the others do better than even on that end. Much of this is driven by the 3-point differential. The defense with these two on the floor has allowed opponents to hit 32.0 percent of their 3s, while all other configurations have allowed 45.4 percent.
Part of this is certainly playing with the starters – the combination of Walton-Rahkman-Irvin-Wilson-Wagner allows opponents to score 96 points per 100, a solid mark. But it’s not everything. And, in the NCAA tournament, lineups containing both Walton Jr. and Wagner have outscored opponents by 30 points per 100 possessions. All others? In the negative, to the tune of 22 points per 100.
Next: NCAA Tournament 2017: Five best potential Final Four matchups
Derrick Walton Jr. and Moritz Wagner are having seasons to remember, and it’s not over yet. The team will go as far as these two can carry them. If what we’ve looked at is any indication, that could be a while.