DraftKings NBA Picks March 24
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks March 24
We are back up to eight games for the main DraftKings tournament tonight. There are more stars on display than last night, but are there still enough bargains for us to afford them? Let’s check out some stats.
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The money line last night was down a bit to 254.75 DraftKings points. One lineup was done in by average performances across the board. The other was undone by a dreadful night from Jonas Valanciunas.
The winning lineup was only at 328.75 DraftKings points. Only one player had over 50 DraftKings points last night (DeMar Derozan), so all scores were tempered a little bit. The winner hit the ultimate value in 0.7% owned K.J. McDaniels. That along with no one else under 35 DraftKings points was good enough for a winning lineup!
I can’t stress enough how important it is to watch our Twitter feed right up until lock time. We will try and relay the information out to you as soon as we can, along with any lineup changes. If you aren’t able to do that, my best advice is to lay off of anyone that may be injured. As far as the healthy scratches, we are all in the same boat. The only ones we really have a shot to switch out anymore are the games that tip at or before 7:30 eastern.
If you would like to try DraftKings for the first time, use this link for the referral bonus! It is good for $10 worth of free entry tickets. We have plenty of advice on the site to help you turn that into a solid bankroll!
Point Guards
Best Bets:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,700): Giannis has “only” averaged 47.3 DraftKings points per game against the Hawks this season. That would leave him a little under value. However, Giannis has been playing mostly power forward, and the Hawks are still without Paul Millsap. He could have a much better game than that solid average tonight.
John Wall ($9,600): Wall has averaged 52.8 DraftKings points in three games against the Nets so far this year. There is a risk of a blowout, but the fact remains that the Nets are still the worst team in the league defending the point. Wall will get 5x average so long as he plays 30 minutes.
Honorable Mention:
Isaiah Thomas ($8,200): Thomas picked up 51 DraftKings points in just 32 minutes against the Suns in the first meeting, and that was with Eric Bledsoe guarding him. Tyler Ulis isn’t quite there on defense yet, so expect Thomas to have another very good game. He could score right up there with the upper tier for less money. Just beware of high ownership.
Jeff Teague ($7,300): Teague only had 28.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Denver, but he played just 24 minutes. His average is now in the mid-30’s. The game shouldn’t be a blowout, so Teague should come close to 40 DraftKings points tonight.
Dark Horses:
Jrue Holiday ($6,500): Holiday picked up 37.5 DraftKings points in the last meeting with Houston, bringing the season average up to 25.7 in three games against the Rockets. I would expect him closer to last game’s production since that was two weeks ago. Holiday looks like a good bet for 6x value again.
Rajon Rondo ($6,200): Fair warning here: Every time I play or recommend Rondo, he has an awful game. However, he does have 66.25 DraftKings points in just 46 minutes against the Sixers this year. Rondo has played more than 30 minutes in four of the last six games, so he should have numbers well above value tonight.
Ish Smith ($4,800): Considering Smith’s price is just $100 below Reggie Jackson‘s now, you can’t just rely on value here. They are cannibalizing the other’s value, but Smith is the one playing better right now. If you want to take a shot with a Detroit point guard, it should be Smith, though neither is a great option against the Magic.
My picks: Thomas(PG); Antetokounmpo(PG), Holiday(G)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
James Harden ($12,200): Does it really matter how tough the Pelicans’ exterior defense is? Harden has averaged 65.3 DraftKings points per game in three games against New Orleans this year. He racked up an unfathomable 83 DraftKings points on them last week. Lock and load with Harden!
Bradley Beal ($7,800): The hot streak is over for the most part, but Beal has still not scored less than 18 points (25 DraftKings points) this month. He has 81 DraftKings points in two games against the Nets so far this year. There may be better value in this game, but we know what Beal is capable of. Just ask Atlanta.
Honorable Mention:
Avery Bradley ($6,500): Bradley racked up 39 minutes – his most since October – against the Pacers on Wednesday. With it came his second straight game of more than 5x value. He should be safe to roll out there once again with Boston fighting for playoff positioning. Bradley will continue to play at least 35 minutes per game.
Gary Harris ($6,500): Besides Jokic, Harris seems to be the only consistent component of the Denver offense. No matter who is starting or who is sitting, Harris is scoring between 28 and 35 DraftKings points. That has a lot of value in cash games, and it certainly wont hurt your GPP lineup.
Dark Horses:
Denzel Valentine ($4,400): Valentine still sees a decent role with Bulls, but his minutes are a little inconsistent from night to night. So is his production. Philadelphia is a tougher nut to crack, but at this price, 5x value isn’t that hard to obtain on a Bulls team that is giving a lot of minutes to the young players.
Nik Stauskas ($4,200): Stauskas has at least 5x value in four straight games. He is scoring at a very high level right now for a team that sorely needs it. Stauskas has been a big part of value lineups for the last few games. With his price still this low, he should continue to be.
My pick: Harden(SG), Bradley(G), Stauskas(UTIL); Stauskas(SG)
Small Forwards
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($10,500): The King got on his teammates a little after a baffling loss to the Nuggets on Wednesday. Will it light a fire under the team? Many DFS players are going to bank on that. It all has to start with the King, right? He has 181 DraftKings points in three games against the Hornets this year. That would put him right around 5.5x value, which is very nice at this price.
Jimmy Butler ($9,200): Butler has 93 DraftKings points in two games against Philadelphia this year. You can expect his production to be up a little bit with Dwyane Wade out. He has at least 45 DraftKings points in five of the six games with Wade out or limited. Butler is a strong play in just about every situation down the stretch.
Honorable Mention:
Robert Covington ($7,000): In all fairness, Covington’s 17.75 DraftKings point showing against the Thunder on Wednesday is still not very good in 25 minutes. It was just exacerbated by the fact that this game was a blowout. This one could be as well, but Covington at least has a solid track history against the Bulls this year. He has 63.75 DraftKings points against them in 56 minutes. If he plays his normal 30-35 minutes, Covington should be able to hit 5x value with relative ease.
Wilson Chandler ($6,500): Chandler didn’t miss a beat after sitting 11 games with a groin injury. He picked up 30.25 DraftKings points in a win over the Cavs, but perhaps more telling was the fact that he played 41 minutes. Denver is fighting for a playoff spot, so Chandler will continue to see a lot of minutes. He looks like a good play against an Indiana team that has struggled against power forwards.
Khris Middleton ($6,300): Middleton has been consistent, but that doesn’t mean that he is hitting value. He has been consistently just under 5x value. You know what to expect from him, but at the same time, he probably isn’t going to help you take down a GPP. That said, he is playing an Atlanta team that has been gouged lately.
Dark Horses:
Jae Crowder ($5,900): Crowder rides hot and cold streaks, just as he has all year. He is on one of the former right now. Crowder is averaging 34.9 DraftKings points over the last four games. The return of Avery Bradley actually seems to have helped his cause. He picked up 32 DraftKings points in the Suns in the first meeting. Expect him in that area again tonight.
Solomon Hill ($4,300): Don’t pay much mind to Hill’s subpar night against Memphis, It happens to a lot of players. What to take away from that is he still played 34 minutes, and still took seven shots. He was still a good part of the offense. It doesn’t look like his minutes are going to deteriorate anytime soon. Hill should be a great play against Houston. He ravaged them for 54 DraftKings points last week while a lot of us were watching the NCAA Tournament.
Paul Zipser ($3,800): Zipser has 56.75 DraftKings points over the last two games. His minutes haven’t really increased, Zipser has just taken – and sank – more buckets lately. This is a trend that should continue, making him a very good punt option.
My Pick: Hill(SF); Butler(SF), Hill(F), Zipser(UTIL)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Anthony Davis ($9,800): It’s hard to tell which one of the two towers will have a better game, but Davis put up 52.75 DraftKings points on Houston last week with Cousins out. Solomon Hill had a huge game starting at power forward, which is where Davis will be tonight. This bodes well for his fantasy value.
Dario Saric ($7,300): Saric has cooled off some, but he has still had at least 25 DraftKings points per game with the ability to drop 50. He has a solid floor, a high ceiling, and he is playing the Bulls, who are much smaller up front without Taj Gibson. This has the looks of a good game for Saric.
Honorable Mention:
Marquese Chriss ($5,900): He is getting better the more he plays. Chriss has been a great bargain lately, going over 5x value in four of the last five games. He just missed in the game that he didn’t go over. Boston has struggled against power forwards this year, so look for Chriss to play with 6x value again.
Tobias Harris ($5,900): Harris has 50 DraftKings points in two games with Orlando this year. However, he has put up better numbers while starting with the exception of the Phoenix game. Harris has broken 40 DraftKings points twice in the last five games. There is upside here.
Nikola Mirotic ($5,400): He has the ability to put up points in a hurry, as we saw on Wednesday night. However, Bobby Portis is still seeing quite a few minutes, and Robin Lopez will be back tonight, so don’t expect quite the volume of Wednesday. That said, if Mirotic keeps shooting like that, the Bulls need another scorer to help out Butler. Mirotic could see more minutes anyway.
Dark Horses:
Kenneth Faried ($4,700): Only in Denver can a man be on a 20 minute limit and play twice as much as he did in the previous game in which he had no imposed limit. Such is the life for Kenneth Faried. At any rate, he torched the Cavs for 33.75 DraftKings points in just 19 minutes. He could do the same against an equally porous Pacers front.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($4,400): RHJ had more rebounds (16) than minutes (15) last night. The low minutes weren’t due to his performance. It was due to the team blowing out Phoenix. He should be well rested, and equally as dangerous, against Washington tonight. Just expect his minutes to double. If his rebounds do, well, He should be playing a whole lot more than 30 minutes per game.
My pick: Chriss(PF), Hollis-Jefferson(F); Faried(PF)
Center
Best Bets:
Nikola Jokic ($9,400): Jokic put up 51.5 DraftKings points in his first meeting with the Pacers this year. Very few teams have been able to hold him in check since Jokic contributes in so many categories. Indiana wasn’t one of them. They wont be here either.
Andre Drummond ($7,600): Drummond racked up 80.5 DraftKings points in two games against Orlando this year. He doesn’t get the respect he deserves in DFS circles since he is mostly a rebounder, but when you haul in 14 a game, that’s a sure 17.5 points not counting anything else. I don’t know about you, but I have room for that in my lineup, especially when he has a favorable game like he does tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Dwight Howard ($7,300): It’s no secret that centers have dominated the Bucks this year. Howard hasn’t played them since they revamped their frontcourt. In this case, they arguably made it worse. Howard has also seen an uptick in production with Millsap out. Expect close to 6x value from Dwight tonight.
Al Horford ($6,600): Horford has been on a tear lately. Phoenix is rough on centers, but it is mostly a product of the other scorers on the team lighting it up. Horford is athletic enough, and a key component of this offense to be immune to Phoenix’s strengths. He has at least 5x value in five straight games. He could do it again tonight.
Dark Horses:
Tristan Thompson ($4,600): He has seen his numbers take a hit with the return of Kevin Love, but it has also had to do with some tougher matchups. The Jazz, Nuggets, and Clippers are all pretty strong up front. He should see a return to 5x value against Charlotte tonight.
Robin Lopez ($4,200): Most night, Rolo can be safely ignored, but he has put up 60 DraftKings points in two games against Philadelphia this year. The Sixers traded away most of their frontcourt depth, so RoLo could be well over 6x value again tonight.
My pick: Lopez(C);Drummond(C)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, and our picks for NHL and the PGA tour! We even have some EPL picks coming your way! I will also have the round by round picks for the NCAA Tournament, the place where your bracket is never busted. Once again, make sure to follow our Twitter feed leading up to tipoff!