FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – March 24
Welcome to the Friday FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for tonight’s ten game slate which kicks off at 7:00PM EST!
As a reminder, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Thursday Night’s winning GPP lineup dropped 334 FanDuel Points which was well below our season average at this point in the season. Over the first 123 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 377.9 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Over the first 123 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 377.9 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Thursday Night’s Picks and Pivots lineup was a mixed bag results wise as we finished above the cash line in some contests and below in others, really depended on which game you entered as we landed at 278.4 FanDuel points. We went into the day with a core built around Damian Lillard, Tyler Ullis, Devin Booker, Kristaps Porzingis, Marquese Chriss and Jusuf Nurkic, all of whom played well. The big issue we faced as the day went on was how to attack the SF position. Initially we were looking to build around T.J. Warren but he was ultimately ruled out as was Carmelo Anthony (after lock) which really limited our options at SF. We decided(as it appears many others did) to go high-low with Kawhi Leonard and P.J. Tucker who started for Serge Ibaka. That left us with only $3,600 for a SG and we opted to use Randy Foye in the high paced Nets/Suns game and we felt good about it as Foye has hit 5x consistently over his previous five games. Well, Foye got 2.4 FanDuel points and really that was the difference on the night for us hitting 100% over the cash line or ultimately falling below.
We are back at it with the typical loaded NBA Friday Night slate and we have some great games with playoff implications to sort through so let’s get to it!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Jeff Teague ($6,800) Looking over this slate, we have three games with 12+ point Vegas spreads with big time blowout concerns with Washington/Brooklyn, Golden State/Sacramento and Boston/Phoenix. At this point in the season, I am hesitant to roster players in clear blow out games and we need to be aware of which teams have something to play for while others are simply playing out the stretch.
The Pacers/Nuggets game to me is my favorite DFS spot to target tonight for some of those very same reason as both teams are battling just to squeak into the playoffs. The Pacers right now are the 7th seed in the East but only 2.5 games from falling out of the race entirely so this is a team we can feel confident in when rostering their players.
The match-up here frankly could not be better as Indiana is projected to score the 6th most points of any team on the slate, scoring nearly 7 points more than their season average while seeing one of the best pace increases. Vegas expects this game to stay close (1.5 points) so I plan on getting heavy exposure to the Pacers here and that starts with an under-priced Jeff Teague.
Teague had gone through a rough stretch recently but seems to have turned it around as over his last two games he is averaging 36 minutes and 37 FanDuel points per contest. The Nuggets rank 27th in DvP to opposing PG’s and with the projected pace and scoring boost, I plan on locking Teague in as one of my core plays tonight!
Ish Smith ($4,700) speaking of teams in the playoff race, the Pistons currently sit one game out of the Eastern Conference playoffs and are reeling a bit after being blown out by the Bulls. Tonight they get a solid match-up against Orlando in a must-win game and we can look to their new starting point guard Ish Smith for salary relief and GPP upside!
Stan Van Gundy finally had enough of Reggie Jackson and slid Ish Smith into the starting lineup last game where he responded with 24.7 FD points in 25 minutes of action due to the blow out. Tonight this game is expected to stay much closer and at this price point Smith only needs 28 FD points to hit 6x value, a target I think is highly likely with even the slightest boost in minutes. The Magic rank 23rd in DvP to opposing PG’s and with the Pistons in a must win spot, I think SVG will ride Smith tonight as the PG he trusts the most!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Buddy Hield ($4,700) Shooting guard is a spot littered with studs tonight and I expect many will look to find the room to fit in James Harden or Giannis Antetokounmpo but on this slate I simply do not see the value we need to go stars/scrubs tonight and I think a more balanced approach is our best bet.
We will however need a few spots of salary savings on this slate and I think the SG position is where we can get it. Hield and the Kings are staring at a massive blow out against the Warriors but that will not dissuade me from locking in Hield who is consistently flashing the upside the Kings expected when they made him the centerpiece of the DeMarcus Cousins deal.
Hield has exceeded 6x value in four of his last six games for the Kings, playing 30+ minutes and shooting double-digit shots in each of his last three games. The Kings at this point do not have much to play for but they are using this time to give their young guys time on their court as they build towards next year and considering the Kings see the second highest pace increase on the slate, this is a good cheap way to get high-end exposure to them!
Nik Stauskas ($3,800) Sauce Castillo continues to be one of the best value plays in DFS down the stretch and I have no issue going back to the well again tonight. Stauskas is averaging 25 FD points per game over the last four games which would exceed 6.5x value at this price point.
The Sixers guard is playing 30+ minutes a night, has double-digit shot attempts in three of his last four games while shooting between 7 and 9 three-point shots in each contest. If Sauce is hitting from deep he has massive GPP appeal and is a player I have no issue using as an elite bargain play!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Paul George ($8,600) and Jimmy Butler ($9,500) One of the reasons I am looking to save salary at SG is so that I can spend up a bit at SF tonight with two players trying to will their teams into the playoffs.
As we mentioned with Jeff Teague, the Pacers get a big time pace/scoring boost tonight against the Nuggets and I plan on pairing Teague/George up as my core tonight. George has really stepped his game up recently with 40+ FanDuel points in five of his last seven contests with 20+ shot attempts in four of his last five games. In this match-up, with the pace/scoring, if PG13 is chucking 20+ shot attempts then the sky is the limit for him and he has an incredible cash game floor with a massive GPP ceiling. All. In.
Butler to me is much like Damian Lillard in that he was a guy who for much of the season was sputtering and failing to play to his upside, but over the last week or so we are seeing the cream rise to the top. Butler is being tasked with carrying this Bulls team into the playoffs without Dwyane Wade on the floor as Chicago currently sits one game out in the Eastern Conference.
Butler’s usage is simply off the charts with Wade off the floor and he is one of the safest plays on the board as shown by his 45 point floor in each of the last four games. What I love about Butler is that he is finding ways to rack up fantasy points across each category, as heading into last game he was shooting the ball nearly 20 times a night but his last game against Detroit may be the most impressive when we went only 6 for 6 from the floor but managed to get over 40 FD points on the back of his 12 assists and 5 rebounds.
George and Butler are going to be core plays for me tonight as they sit at reasonable price points with solid cash game floors and with their teams circumstances they are going to be asked to carry the load which gives them the GPP upside I want tonight!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Nikola Jokic ($10,100) On the other side of the Indiana game, the Nuggets find themselves clinging to a one game lead in the 8th spot in the Western Conference so expect them to be every bit as fired up tonight in a great game stack environment here. With the Nuggets getting healthier (Gallinari still questionable) it lessens the appeal of the Nuggets guards/wings and it has been a while since we have seen a 50-60 FD point Jokic triple double, but tonight is a great spot for him!
The Pacers rank 21st in DvP to opposing Centers so this is a match-up that The Joker can dominate and the Nuggets need him to. The game log watchers will see the lack of upside from Jokic and balk at the price tag, but this feels very similar to how I viewed Giannis two night ago against the Kings. The game log was underwhelming compared to the price but we all knew that in the right match-up he could explode and ultimately it kept him under owned (18%) and when he dropped his 60+ FD points it vaulted teams to the top of the standings. Jokic is that guy for me tonight and I am going to have heavy exposure to him as part of a Teague/George mini-stack!
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Nikola Mirotic ($4,600) Team Nikola tonight! I really agonized over this pick tonight because I am worried Mirotic is going to be the super chalk play at PF coming off a 44 point (10x) outing in his last game. I do not want to chase the points here but I cannot avoid the fact that the Bulls are short-handed and clinging to their playoff lives so Fred Hoiberg may need to continue to ride the hot hand here!
Mirotic is simply priced too cheap and if he is chalk so be it – the guy has hit 8x value in three of his last six games. That is not a typo. I am locking him in tonight at this price point and will look to differentiate elsewhere!
Dwight Howard ($7,200) Center feels like a great spot to save a bit and drop down from the high-end price points tonight and I will have heavy exposure to Dwight Howard who has seen the biggest boost with Paul Millsap out due to injury.
Howard has four straight double-doubles, playing 30 minutes a night and dropping 30-40 FD points each time out. The match-up against Milwaukee is solid as they rank 20th in DvP to opposing Centers on the season and with the price savings off guys like Boogie and KAT, we can afford to spend up elsewhere.
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!