The #TankRace for the middle of the 2017 NBA Draft lottery
By Jared Dubin
There’s a ton of exciting stuff going on in the NBA right now. We have playoff races at the top and bottom of each conference that look like they’ll go down to the wire. We’re witnessing one of the best MVP races in years and a just-as-compelling three-way Defensive Player of the Year battle. Even Coach of the Year and Most Improved Player have several viable (and exciting!) candidates.
At the other end of the spectrum, we have the epically-bad-but-delightfully-frisky Nets locking the Celtics into a top-four pick, the pitiful Lakers executing one of the more brazen tank-jobs in NBA history and the just-plain-bad Suns (who have shut Eric Bledsoe down with a mysterious injury) looking occasionally feisty on the nights where their young guys put it together.
Listen: Tanking, resting and other NBA evils
In between, there’s a group of teams nowhere near good enough for a playoff spot and not quite near bad enough for top-three ping-pong ball odds. The Magic, 76ers, Knicks, Kings and Wolves are just sorta stinky, and they’re all separated by a mere three games in the “race” for the fourth through eighth seeds in next month’s lottery. Below, we’ll take a look at where each team stands with just about three weeks left in the season.
Team records, strength of schedule and projection all current as of Thursday afternoon.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Record: 28-42
Games Left: 12 (5 home, 7 road) SOS: 0.484
538 Projection: 34-48
The Wolves thought they might compete for a playoff spot for a while, but they’re now 5.5 games back of the 8-seed with 12 to play so that’s not happening. That said, they are likely best situated among these five teams to finish the season strong. Karl-Anthony Towns is playing like an absolute monster, Ricky Rubio has been terrific since the break (though he hasn’t shot it well the last two times out) and, well, they still have three games left against the tanktastic Lakers. Those three wins alone might put them too far ahead for any of the four teams behind them to catch up. The Wolves are probably the best bet for the 8-seed heading into the lottery.
Sacramento Kings
Record: 27-44
Games Left: 11 (5 home, 6 road) SOS: 0.527
538 Projection: 31-51
The Kings have some super interesting games left on their schedule. They play the Pelicans, whose pick they own with a mere top-3 protection. They also play the Lakers and Suns, games that seem like free wins but might not be if the Kings tank even harder than those two. There are also games against the Mavericks and Wolves, who in theory should want to lose also. A lot on the line in those five games. Other than that, it’s all contenders for the Kings. The Warriors, Clippers, Grizzlies, Jazz, Rockets, the Clippers again. Things could get very weird down the stretch, especially when you consider the fact that the Sixers have swap rights with the Kings’ pick.
New York Knicks
Record: 27-45
Games Left: 10 (7 home, 3 road) SOS: 0.545
538 Projection: 31-51
The Knicks just announced that they’re sitting Carmelo Anthony, Derrick Rose and Lance Thomas against the Blazers as I began typing this paragraph, so I’m going to go ahead and assume that they’ve dropped to 27-45 by the time you’re reading this. If they haven’t, my editors will fix this section in the morning. The Knicks have the toughest remaining schedule of these five teams, and it’s actually tougher than it appears because it comes with two games against the Heat, who are way better than their 35-37 record. The Knicks have two more home games on their schedule than any of these other squads, but they also exclusively play teams that are either in the playoffs or in the race for a spot until they take on the Sixers in the season finale. Now just a game ahead of the Magic and facing a significantly tougher schedule the rest of the way, the Knicks might actually be the favorite for the No. 4 spot in the lottery.
Philadelphia 76ers
Record: 26-45
Games Left: 11 (5 home, 6 road) SOS: 0.482
538 Projection: 31-51
Everyone’s favorite tankers, the Sixers have only actually had the worst record in the league once in these last four years of losing. They seem likely to finish outside the bottom-five this year, based on the remaining games on their schedule. The Sixers play the Bulls twice, the Nets twice and the Knicks before the end of the year. It will be an upset if they don’t get a couple wins out of those five games, if not more. Their chances of actually winning the lottery are higher than they appear because they control their own odds and the Kings’ odds thanks to the aforementioned swap rights, obtained in the Sauce Castillo deal. Given the current records and schedules, the Sixers seems fairly likely to enter the lottery with the No. 6 and 7 seed in their control. That’d give them around a 22 percent chance of moving into the top-two, about the same chance as whoever finishes with the No. 4 seed in the lottery.
Orlando Magic
Record: 26-46
Games Left: 10 (5 home, 5 road) SOS: 0.481
538 Projection: 30-52
The Magic are in control of its own destiny here, but also have the easiest remaining schedule of any of the five teams. They don’t really seem likely to find four wins in their final 10 games and meet the current Five Thirty Eight projection of 30 total given how they’ve played this season, but stranger things have happened. The post-Dwight Howard rebuild sure could use a Fultz/Ball infusion, but it’s not like the Magic haven’t had chances to pick high in the draft. They landed in the top five each of the three years immediately following Dwight’s absconsion to LA.