Top 30 MLB breakout stars in 2017
With the regular season just around the corner, we dive deep to find 30 MLB breakout candidates for 2017.
It’s that time of year. Spring Training is winding down, the World Baseball Classic has come to an end, and each of the 30 major league clubs is ready to head north to begin another long season.
They say hope spring eternal this time of year – and that saying doesn’t apply to just playoff hopes. The beginning of April is also an opportunity for players to start the season on the right foot, and potentially build momentum for a breakout performance.
As we look ahead to the 2017 season, we’ve selected 30 players – one from each MLB franchise – with the potential to do big things. Many of the names on our list have been top prospects throughout their pro careers, but breakout performers can come from anywhere: Triple-A, the Rule 5 Draft, the 60-day DL, the end of the bench, the KBO.
Some, like Byron Buxton, were no-brainers. Others are more under the radar, including a couple of players that aren’t even starters yet. But, don’t let the long shots fool you: few predicted Sandy Leon would break out and become a key contributor for the Boston Red Sox last season, or that Adam Duvall would bash 33 home runs for the Reds.
In addition to our breakout pick, we’ve also made note of other players to watch. At the end of each of the following pages, we offer another name to know – a player with similar breakout potential – as well as one name to keep in mind for the future – often a prospect, but sometimes an under-the-radar player that could shine if given the right opportunity this season.
Arizona Diamondbacks
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: SP Robbie Ray
The 2016 season was a disaster for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and one of the biggest reasons was a pitching staff that posted a collective 5.09 ERA – the worst in baseball. The D-Backs also allowed the most runs in the major leagues (890), had the worst WHIP (1.492) and ranked next to last in walks per nine innings (3.7).
However, despite a rocky road, Robbie Ray took a big step forward in his third big league season, his first full season in Arizona. In 174.1 innings across 32 starts, Ray posted a 4.90 ERA and 3.76 FIP (which suggests he pitched better than his high ERA would indicate, as does the .352 BABIP he surrendered).
With a fastball that sits in the mid 90s, the left-hander has the ability to blow hitters away, and he often did. Ray struck out 218 hitters last season, giving him the majors’ third best rate of 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings and an impressive 28.1 percent strikeout rate.
However, in order to break out in 2017, Ray must show better command. The 25-year old walked 9.2 percent of the hitters he faced last season and that wildness led to high pitch counts. As a result, Ray lasted fewer than 5.5 innings per start on average. He walked 71 hitters in all, and also surrendered 185 hits and 24 home runs.
A three-win player last season, Ray has the fastball velocity (94.1 miles per hour on average and a max of 98, according to PITCHF/x data) and secondary stuff to be one of the top left-handed starters in the American League. But he’ll need to harness that talent, and attack hitters in order to pitch deeper into games.
Another Name to Know: SP Taijuan Walker
One More for the Future: SS Ketel Marte