Auto Club 400 from Auto Club Speedway in California: Preview and prediction

Will Kyle Larson win everything worth winning in his home state this weekend?

NASCAR Goes West ends today with the Auto Club 400 in California, but it’s safe to say that Kyle Larson probably wishes it would never end.

Not only is Larson from California, but he’s made himself right at home at what is effectively his home track, winning both the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series pole and Saturday’s XFINITY Series race. Those runs come on the heels of him finishing literally as good as you possibly could during the first two stops on the current west coast swing without a victory, coming in second at both Las Vegas and Phoenix.

The obvious accomplishment left on his checklist would be to captured the checkered flag at Auto Club Speedway as well, but as always, that’s easier said than done. Joey Logano and Kyle Busch were both in contention for the win on Saturday, and Logano might have been able to beat Larson if the race had been a few laps longer. The No. 22 driver has never won in California and will be anxious to change that fact.

A pair of three-time Auto Club 400 winners, Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson, will also be looking to add fourth victories. Johnson also has three wins at the former fall race at Auto Club Speedway, but he’ll have to come from deep in the field to do it after crashing in practice and deciding not to even risk his backup car with a qualifying run.

Next: Auto Club 400 grid and starting lineup

WEATHER FORECAST:

It’s tempting to just write gorgeous and call it a day here. The 2017 NASCAR season has been mercifully free of rain so far, and naturally, that won’t be a problem at Fontana either. Weather.com is calling for temperatures in the mid-60s and partly cloudy conditions all race long, although there might be some additional sunshine in the first stage that could have crew chiefs adjusting a bit later on.

THREE THINGS TO WATCH:

• Racing could go four-wide after restarts … or even five. Brad Keselowski was in the booth during the XFINITY race and suggested that fans wouldn’t see better racing all year than at Auto Club Speedway, as the track is exceptionally wide and drivers can use every groove from right near the wall to all the way down on the apron. It’s exciting until the field gets more spread out but also means a mistake at the wrong time could lead to multi-car wrecks, something that’s been absent from every race in 2017 since the Daytona 500.
• Is the Rocket Man really back? No one was talking much about Ryan Newman before the season began, but he made fans and the media pay attention with his victory at Phoenix. Always a good qualifier, Newman put his No. 31 in the top five to start the day at California, and if he is around at the end this afternoon, it might be time to reassess his prospects as a 2017 title contender.
• Can Junior get it in gear? It’s tough for Junior Nation to hear, but Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been the weak link in the Hendrick Motorsports stable so far, the only one of the four drivers without any of the team’s combined five top-10 finishes. The good news is that he’s finished better in each race, but he’s got an only so-so starting spot of 18th for the Auto Club 400 and has super-fast drivers both ahead of him and behind since Logano and Johnson will be coming from near the back. It should be interesting to see how the 88 fares at Fontana.

PREDICTION

Calling a win for Larson feels like both too obvious and too much of a gamble at the same time, if that’s possible since he has only one career Cup Series victory. So let’s go with the man starting beside him on Row 1, Denny Hamlin, who has yet to win at Fontana but looked like he would capture the pole until Larson’s last lap on Friday.

For your longshot pick, consider Erik Jones, whose actually done better this season to date than more celebrated rookie Daniel Suarez. Jones had a top-10 finish in Phoenix, was fast on Saturday and generally seems to be settling into his Furniture Row Racing ride.