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Dodgers Rich Hill: Don’t let Ageism Prevent You from Drafting an Ace

By Gavin Tramps

Dec 5, 2016; National Harbor, MD, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Rich Hill (left) speaks as Dodgers manager Dave Rogers (right) listens during a press conference announcing Hill's signing a three year contract during the 2016 MLB Winter Meetings at Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 5, 2016; National Harbor, MD, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Rich Hill (left) speaks as Dodgers manager Dave Rogers (right) listens during a press conference announcing Hill's signing a three year contract during the 2016 MLB Winter Meetings at Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports /
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If Rich Hill continues his remarkable comeback, the Dodgers could have two pitchers vying for NL Cy Young consideration this season. Don’t let age prejudice stop you drafting the 37-year-old.

Dodgers’ Rich Hill only threw 110 innings in 2016, but they were 110 memorable innings. Acquired by the Athletics after a four-game stint with the Red Sox in 2015, Hill bewildered hitters last season with a devastating curveball and a deceptively effective fastball.

This is the third version of Hill that we have seen in the majors. A breakout at the age of 36 was unexpected but legitimate.

Hill made his debut in 2005 for the Cubs.

Version 1.0: 70 starts between 2005-2009 with a 21-20 win-loss record, 4.87 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 8.10 SO/9.

Version 2.0: 119 appearances, all as a reliever between 2010-2014. He posted a 3.93 ERA with 1.59 WHIP but an attention-grabbing 11.40 SO/9.

Version 3.0: 24 starts between 2015-2016 with 2.00 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 10.70 SO/9.

This new, improved version could be one of the best starters in the game, yet he is being drafted outside of the top-100 picks.

Let us take a look at his stats compared to the first five starting pitchers taken in drafts this year.

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ERA over last 24 starts

  • Clayton Kershaw 1.67 ERA
  • Hill 2.00 ERA
  • Noah Syndergaard 2.60 ERA
  • Max Scherzer 2.61 ERA
  • Madison Bumgarner 2.98 ERA
  • Chris Sale 3.93 ERA

When Kershaw is the only pitcher with better results, you know you must be doing something special.

WHIP over last 24 starts

  • Kershaw 0.71 WHIP
  • Scherzer 0.91 WHIP
  • Hill 0.93 WHIP
  • Bumgarner 0.99 WHIP
  • Sale 1.14 WHIP
  • Syndergaard 1.17 WHIP

Remember that the Hill is being drafted at least 85 spots later than the elite five.

STRIKEOUT RATE over last 24 starts

Hill’s 10.66 SO/9 put him behind Kershaw and Scherzer but ahead of the other three. His 29.4 K% was the fifth best among starters last season.

Hill has one of the best curveballs in the game. It induces ground balls over 60% of the time and generates swings and misses at a rate of 25%. Surprisingly, for a veteran pitcher on the comeback trail, it was his fastball that did the most damage last season. At the highest velocity of his career, his fastball resulted in more whiffs per swing (34.58%) than any other left-handed starter.

Obviously, it is unrealistic to expect Hill to be drafted as one of the first five or six starting pitchers, but surely he should be getting more love ahead of young starters like Danny Salazar or Gerrit Cole?

Next: How would a trade impact Jose Quintana's fantasy value?

There is no logical reason to leave Hill as the 29th starting pitcher off the board unless it is ageism.

Are you worried about Hill’s health? It is a legitimate concern. He only made 20 starts in 2016, but that is only one fewer than Kershaw or Cole.

Maybe you are worried that Hill will not be a durable starter this season. Again another legitimate concern but the tech-savvy sabermetricians at the Dodgers offered him a $48 million three-year contract. Of course, they might be wrong, and you might know better.

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