Fantasy Football 2017: Miami Dolphins outlook
In the lead up to the NFL Draft, we’ll be assessing the fantasy-relevant assets on every team. We’ll cover past performances and look ahead for 2017 potential. We kick things off with the Miami Dolphins.
Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill was on a hot streak in the second half of his 2016 campaign before suffering an ACL tear in week 14. In his first seven games with new head coach Adam Gase, Tannehill threw six touchdowns and seven interceptions. From week seven to 14, he put up a 13-5 line, and looked extremely comfortable in the offense.
After finishing as a middling quarterback in his previous three seasons (QB15, QB10 and QB11), he’ll now be a great late option in your fantasy drafts, and if back to full health (as it seems he will be), he’ll outperform his average draft position.
Jay Ajayi
Ajayi seems to have assured himself a starting role with a massive breakout sophomore season in 2016 which included three legendary 200-plus yard games. While he does have control of the backfield, we have to be wary of the manner in which he achieved his RB11 yearly finish.
On the positive side, he didn’t receive a significant share of the carries until week five of the season yet still achieved “RB1” status. However, outside of his three huge games, he only topped 11.6 PPR points one other time in the year, and had six games with under 8.7 PPR points after taking over as the lead back. He should continue with the volume, but may not be the wisest option in the second round over more safe receivers. In the third or fourth, he becomes a solid RB2 selection.
Jarvis Landry
If you had to guess the two current players who hold the record for most receptions through their first three seasons, you’d likely go with Odell Beckham Jr. as one of them, right? You’d be correct. Perhaps surprisingly, Jarvis Landry has equalled Beckham’s 288 catches and been one of the most consistent PPR options since entering the league in 2014.
He’s scored double-digit PPR points in 36 of his last 41 games, but where he falls down is his lack of upside – he’s only hauled in 13 total touchdowns and achieved 10.6 yards per reception (compared to 35 and 14.3 for Beckham) in his career. That said, he’s a reliable WR3 option for 2017 and beyond.
DeVante Parker
When you’re selected in the top half of the first round of the NFL Draft, expectations are high. Parker went at No. 14 overall in 2015, but through two years has fallen way short of these lofty expectations and only managed 82 catches, 1,238 yards and seven touchdowns. However, the astonishing 2014 class of receivers set an unreal expectation for future ones, and although Parker’s development has been slow, he’s shown improvement.
He has tremendous talent, and is suited to a “WR1” role more than the aforementioned Landry. According to the Fantasy Football Calculator’s ADP data, Parker is being drafted in the later rounds close to players such as Jeremy Maclin, Willie Snead and Tyler Lockett. While this is subject to huge change between now and the beginning of the season, I’ll be targeting Parker’s upside in 2017 drafts.
Kenny Stills
Racking up a surprising total of nine touchdowns on only 42 catches in 2016, Stills is likely due for a regression in that area moving forward. However, the Dolphins showed they value him highly, signing him to a four-year, $32 million contract rather than letting him slip away in free agency. He could potentially be a flex and streaming option in the year, but don’t spend too much draft capital on him because won’t be reaching that many scores again.
Julius Thomas
Thomas was a major bust in Jacksonville, but how could he have prevented that when moving from Peyton Manning to Blake Bortles? In his two breakout years in Denver, he scored 24 touchdowns and a combined 379.7 PPR points.
For the Jaguars, those numbers dropped to nine TDs and 203.6 points (as well as 11 missed games). Miami is hoping to re-ignite him as they shipped a late round pick across Florida to bring him back to Coach Gase, who was with him in Denver. If we hear he’s back to full health, he’ll be worth a late flier.
The Best of the Rest
Matt Moore had three good fantasy games in relief of Tannehill at the end of 2017, and would be a streamer in 2QB/superflex leagues if the starter goes down. Damien Williams, listed as the second back, holds no fantasy value while Kenyan Drake, an early third round pick in 2015, may develop as a pass-catching PPR option.
Leonte Carroo, another 2015 third-rounder, barely saw the field in his rookie campaign but had some huge fans in the dynasty football community. Don’t act on anything until he can find the field, but snap him up if he shows signs of life.