Marcus Paige and the point guard conundrum

It’s March. For a lot of basketball fans this is the most exciting time of the year. A time when it’s perfectly acceptable for men to root for a Cinderella, a time when buzzer beaters seem to be the norm and for some a time for heartbreak.

Marcus Paige almost ended his four-year career at The University of North Carolina by adding himself to the lore of making a ridiculous, game-tying shot in the NCAA Final by catapulting his team to overtime where they could have prevailed. Instead, Kris Jenkins’ buzzer-beating 3-pointer ended his college career on a sour note and he has not forgotten it — nor will he ever.

“Daily,” Paige told The Step Back in a recent phone interview. “I think about it daily, man. I see highlights of his (Jenkins’) shot all the time. It’s impossible to avoid. It took me six or seven months before I actually sat down and watched the entire game through.”

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A catastrophic disappointment like the one shared by all members of the Tar Heels last season can be tough to let go of. Paige really didn’t have much time to dwell on it as he had to prepare for the NBA Draft. Then after being selected by the Jazz, he played Summer League and endured their training camp as well. It’s a roller coaster ride, as Paige acknowledges: “It was pretty fun. I mean, a lot of stuff happens in a very short period of time so there wasn’t much time to dwell on what happened.”

After being drafted with the No. 55 pick overall in the 2016 NBA Draft, Paige worked hard to make the Jazz’ 15-man roster but was ultimately waived and allocated to their D-League affiliate, the Salt Lake City Stars. He has averaged 12.3 points, 2.3 assists and 2.2 rebounds for the Stars this season with splits of 40.4/36.8/82.8. The Stars, however, have struggled with a14-32 record and will not participate in the D-League playoffs for the eighth straight season (dating back to their Idaho Stampede days), which is the longest such streak in the entire league.

The main issue for the Stars has been the lack of a true point guard. The team is dead last in points scored and assists per game, and the transition from a blue blood program like UNC to this losing season has been tough on the rookie guard.

“Yeah, man, it has been real tough,” Paige said after taking a deep sigh. “I’ve won my entire life dating back to grade school days, through high school and at Carolina. It’s providing a learning experience, but it’s definitely tough.”

The Stars have used Paige primarily as an off-guard this season, which is weird considering he stands just 6-feet tall and weights in at just 175 pounds. Those are obviously not measurements you’d expect to see from a pro shooting guard. Paige acknowledged the learning curve and transition but made no bones about his ability to play the lead guard position: “Yeah, I do know I can play the point. I came to UNC as a true point guard, but we had some injuries and coach (Roy Williams) moved me off the ball out of necessity. I would love to get back to playing point and I know I can reinvent myself as a professional point guard.”

While the confidence is essential at this level, Paige has struggled as a rookie in the D-League. The trouble he encounters is he’s not explosive athletically, he’s not overly quick and he can be a bit of a defensive liability guarding larger guards with his wiry frame. His lack of physical strength coupled with the lack of athleticism has played out in his finishing this season for the Stars. He’s only made 41.9 percent of his shot attempts within the restricted area, which is well below league average of 60.3 percent. On top of that, 17 of his 86 shot attempts in the same area have been blocked.

To his credit, Paige did not shy away from this fact. “I think some added strength this offseason will really help,” he said. “I’m missing easy finishes at the rim because of one small bump from a defender and it really throws me off. I do have good touch around the basket, so I know added strength and improving my right hand will go a long way in that area.”

Where Paige excels is the pick-and-roll and working with the ball in his hands. He makes quality decisions coming off the pick, can find open teammates and has been successful with pull-up jump shots this year. He’s knocked down 16-of-22 pull-up jumpers (4-of-6 from 3) and he’s a throwback player in terms of mid-range success (53.1 percent) as well.

Moving to point guard would really open additional opportunities for him moving forward. A player with his frame, basketball IQ and ability to shoot the basketball should be running lead guard to help his team. The Stars have done him a bit of a disservice playing him mostly off the ball and it would behoove them to give him the reigns if Paige returns to the D-League next season.

This season the league has seen some extraordinary point guard play resulting in call-ups to the NBA. Players like Yogi Ferrell and Briante Weber have really been able to make their mark as playmakers and impact players off the bench for their respective NBA clubs. Here’s how Paige compares in terms of some critical statistics:

Some of this is slanted because, while Paige is a full-time starter like the others, he does not have the ball in his hands primarily. However, see how his finishing ability stacks up to those who have been called-up and it pales in comparison. While his assist numbers aren’t high, his assist/turnover ratio could still stand to be much better.

The other interesting stat is the downfall of his 3s off the dribble. Due to the Stars using him mainly off the ball, they have tried to morph him into a catch-and-shoot option, but Paige was always at his best shooting 3s off the dribble in college.

In Paige’s most efficient seasons shooting the 3 — his sophomore and junior seasons — he took more 3s off the dribble. He’s clearly a better shooter off the dribble than he is in catch-and-shoot situations, which will only benefit him in the future as a point guard.

In recent years, smaller guards who can handle, shoot and make good decisions have been successful transitioning to the NBA after multiple seasons — or, at least, parts of multiple seasons — in the NBA D-League. Seth Curry is having a wildly successful season with the Mavericks, but it took him almost two full seasons in the D-League and a season with the Kings to finally realize his potential and find the right team fit.

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In the words of enigmatic hip-hop artist Kendrick Lamar, Paige needs the “we gon’ be alright” mantra and his hard work will pay off. It all starts with him making the transition to the point guard position, whether that’s in the D-League, overseas or perhaps the NBA.

Stats included in this piece are from stats.dleague.com and hoop-math.com and are accurate as of March 24.