Welcome to the Wednesday FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for tonight’s ten game slate which kicks off at 7:00PM EST!
As a reminder, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Tuesday’s winning GPP lineup scored 399 FanDuel points on the back of John Wall who put up a massive 64 FD points against the Lakers in the final game of the night! Over the first 128 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.6 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Over the first 128 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.6 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Tuesday Night’s Picks and Pivots lineups bounced back as we finished above 300 across the board and above the cash line in many of our contests. The core of our lineup on this night was built around Damian Lillard (40), Nikola Jokic (40), Tyler Ullis (38) and T.J. Warren (40). The late breaking news that Devin Booker would be out, led me to move 100% to Ullis/Warren as the sheer amount of usage these two would need to handle was worth the investment – and it paid off!
Wednesday night’s slate is a big one and as we inch closer to the playoffs it will become increasingly important to watch the news throughout the day as the lineup you start your day with could look materially different by the time lock comes!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Dennis Schroder ($7,200) The Atlanta Hawks were a core building block in last night’s Picks and Pivots and tonight they step into almost the exact same game scenario that made them so appealing on Tuesday. The Hawks remain in a battle for the 5th spot in the Eastern Conference, just a game from falling into the 7th spot (and a match-up with Cleveland or Boston) so they are going to need to keep winning to aid their playoff match-up!
Tonight they get to face Philadelphia in a game with the highest expected pace (similar to Tuesday against the Suns) and with so many injuries, the Hawks are becoming a DFS dream – a team playing all their starters major minutes in a super tight rotation!
On Tuesday Night, the Hawks starters all saw 32+ minutes of action and no bench player saw more than 18 minutes (Jose Calderon). Paul Millsap is still out and Thabo Sefolosha remains questionable, however the Hawks should get some reinforcements as Kent Bazemore is due back from injury.
Last night I was focused on the wings/front-court of the Hawks and missed out on perhaps the best DFS play of the night as Dennis Schroder continued his torrid streak of basketball! Schroder has now put up 40+ FanDuel points in three straight games, shooting the ball no less than 24 times per game during that stretch. In a pace up game where the Hawks where the Hawks see a projected point increase and remain short-handed, I am locking in Schroder again tonight!
T.J McConnell ($5,500) On the other side of this game, the Sixers are a team I utilized as an under the radar stack on Tuesday and I intend to go back to the well again tonight. The rationale with the Sixers is simple – not only do they see a nice pace boost but they are simply a depleted team forced to run their healthy bodies major minutes which is DFS gold!
Last night, the Sixers only had 9 healthy bodies (that included recent D-League call-up, Tiago Splitter) and it resulted in the starters all having to log heavy minutes as a result. McConnell gets the added “advantage” of having his back-up, Sergio Rodriguez, sidelined with injury which makes his role on the court not only secure, but necessary.
McConnell has played 35 minutes last night and racked up 30 FanDuel points (5.4x value) on the back of 10 assists, although he did shoot only 3 for 10 from the floor. The Hawks present an ideal match-up as they rank 26th in DvP and Schroder has the second worst individual defensive rating of any PG not named Isaiah Thomas. Fire up this PG stack tonight!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Rodney Hood ($3,900) With Gordon Hayward questionable for tonight’s game against Sacramento, we should be able to target the remaining Jazz starters who will all see a nice usage bump in a favorable match-up against the Kings.
Hood stands out as an elite point per dollar play as he remains under $4k on FanDuel and is coming off a 30 minute, 31 FanDuel point performance which is nearly 8x value at this price point! The most interesting stat from that last game, without Gordon Hayward, is that Hood led the Jazz in shot attempts with 16 and if he continues to get that kind of run against the 21st ranked SG defense in the NBA – he could put up another massive DFS night!
Wesley Matthews ($4,600) As I typically do, I will look at a double-punt approach at SG tonight and in that strategy the biggest focus will be on finding guaranteed minutes which leads me to Wesley Matthews.
Matthews has played 33 or more minutes in five straight games for Dallas and with Seth Curry nursing an injury, Matthews is being asked to log even more time for the Dallas back-court. Matthews is averaging over 23 FD points per game during that stretch which puts him solidly at 5x value with this price point tonight.
As a stand alone play, Matthews does not have the kind of GPP upside we are looking for (6x) but remember that not every single player on your 9 man roster has to go for 6x and you will need a few plays with 5x floors that allow you to spend up elsewhere. Matthews is that guy for me tonight if I need a solid SG in this price range!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Robert Covington ($6,700) As I mentioned in my McConnell write-up, the Sixers are down to essentially a handful of players at this point and it is forcing guys like Covington to log all the minutes they can handle down the stretch.
Covington had a great bounce back game on Tuesday against the Nets with 21 points, 13 rebounds and 45 FanDuel points and we get the benefit of his price not moving on FanDuel. The Hawks are ranked dead last in DvP to opposing SF’s on the season and we saw last night, T.J. Warren drop 40 FanDuel points on them!
Covington is one of the best GPP plays on the board for me tonight as his multi-category ability and sky-high minutes give him legit 7x upside in this spot and I will have him as a core play tonight!
Taurean Prince ($3,800) Tuesday night was Taurean Prince chalk night Part Deux as he was over 40% owned in GPP play and all he did was respond with 28 FanDuel points in 36 minutes which would exceed 7.3x value.
Prince has now put up back to back elite value games averaging over 30 FanDuel points and 8x value in 37 minutes of action per contest. The one caveat here is that Kent Bazemore is due back after missing the last five games with an injury so it is possible we could see Prince return to the bench tonight.
This is the one lineup spot I will be keeping my eye on as Bazemore may be eased back into the rotation tonight off the bench or could even replace Tim Hardaway Jr. in the lineup. If Prince is starting again he is a no brainer lock and load DFS staple tonight!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Anthony Davis ($11,700) To this point in my roster build I have lived mostly in the mid-range to the bargain bin and that is for good reason – I want to spend up on my big guys tonight and it starts with The Brow against Dallas.
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With DeMarcus Cousins still questionable, Davis gets a juicy match-up against a league worst rebounding team in the Dallas Mavericks! The Brow comes into this game with 60+ FanDuel points in two of his last three games and has exceeded 50 FD points in each of his last three meetings with Dallas.
With Cousins off the floor, Davis is once against funneling all the usage for the Pelicans and with no significant interior defensive threats on Dallas, I would expect another massive night from Davis all-around!
Dario Saric ($7,300) Heading back to Philly again, I am loading up on the Sixers “Big Three” of Covington, McConnell and Saric tonight against the Hawks as a cost-effective high upside GPP stack. Saric is locked into 30+ minutes while putting up 15 shot attempts a night and logging double-digit boards in two of his last three games. Without Millsap on the court, Saric gets an exploitable match-up against Ersan Illyasova tonight and at this price point, I believe we have 45-50 FanDuel point upside!
Rudy Gobert ($9,100) My gut reaction here was to go back to Dwight Howard against the league worst interior of the Sixers but honestly – how can you fade Rudy Gobert right now? Gobert is on a monster tear right now, with 50+ FD points in four of his last six games and has averaged 48 FD points against this Kings team so far this season (two of those games were with Boogie Cousins mind you).
With Gordon Hayward questionable tonight, I love the idea of going to a Gobert/Hood stack as my late night hammer in this spot and paired with Atlanta/Philly wit Anthony Davis locked in at PF – this is a high upside squad I feel confident in tonight!
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!