Going into the NFL Draft, we’ll be assessing the fantasy assets of every team. We’ll cover past performances and look ahead for 2017 potential. Today, we focus on the Buffalo Bills, who could be rejuvenated under Sean McDermott.
Tyrod Taylor
“TyGod” was re-signed by Buffalo after it seemed he’d move on to pastures new in free agency. The Bills (wisely) came round, and he’ll offer some continuity on what looks to be a new offense in the post-Rex Ryan era. While new head coach Sean McDermott is defensive-minded, he will likely leave the offense in the hands of Rick Dennison; a West Coast offensive coordinator who worked with Taylor in Baltimore.
The dual-threat quarterback has performed extremely well in a low-volume passing attack, and while we can’t say an increase in attempts will help him as a quarterback, volume always tends to help us as fantasy owners and he could see more of it. In 2016, Taylor finished as the seasonal QB19, but had fewer attempts than every single quarterback ahead of him.
In fact, he only had five attempts more than Tom Brady, but outscored him by 17 points. Furthermore, his rushing yardage provides an outstanding floor – he’s totaled 1,148 yards and ten touchdowns in the last two seasons and has only fallen below 11.8 PPR points once in that time.
Like every year, it’s worth waiting on quarterback, and Taylor will be one of many you can happily snap up without investing major draft capital. If surrounded with a little more talent, his full fantasy potential might be realized, but until then he’s simply a very solid QB2 option.
LeSean McCoy
It’s not football season until “Shady” has juked a defender out of his cleats, and last year McCoy was back to his old self with his best season since 2013. His 1,267 rushing yards, 51 catches and 14 total touchdowns meant he was a league-winner for a ton of fantasy drafters who got him at an “age discount.”
Moving forward, we can simply expect more of the same from McCoy, so your investment should depend on his price. He’ll be 29 when the season starts, but showed no signs of slowing down. The team could add a running back from this strong class, but will that player be able to usurp the veteran in 2017? It’s not likely.
The biggest concern will be the volume of rushing declining after a year in which the team led the league in rushing yards (a chunk of it coming from Taylor) but were 30th in passing. If the team elects to take a more balanced approach (versus the rest of the league), they may move towards throwing the ball more often. However, McCoy is great as a receiver from the backfield and however the teams finds success, he will be a part of it. You can do a lot worse than McCoy as your team’s RB1.
Sammy Watkins
At only 23, the former Clemson Tiger is already starting to show signs of wear and tear on his body, missing 12 games in the past two years after a strong rookie campaign (65-982-6). In 2015, he had surgery on his hip, and last year it was his foot. Should we be worried? “Wary” might be a better term. He had a second surgery on his foot in January, but so far is on schedule with no setbacks.
As for the talent, it’s undeniable. In his strong sophomore season (60-1,047-9), he finished in the top 20 despite missing four games (everyone else in the top 30 played at least 14 games), and was top ten in points per game. Although he hobbled through 2016, don’t forget he’s a special player.
There have only been four true freshmen in college that were named first team All-Americans – Herschel Walker, Marshall Faulk, Adrian Peterson and… Sammy Watkins. There’s a reason the Bills gave up a huge haul to make him the highest receiver drafted since A.J. Green, and we need to see him fully healthy before labelling him an on-field let down. As he might slide to the fifth or sixth rounds in 2017 drafts, he should be a firm target.
The Best of the Rest
Mike Gillislee has the capability to stand in for LeSean McCoy, but isn’t a handcuff with major upside. Outside of Watkins, the Bills’ receiving corps is barren. Andre Holmes, a free agent acquisition from Oakland, is the only player with any real past production (a 47 catch, 693 yard season all the way back in 2014).
After him, only Philly Brown has had more than 30 receptions in a season, while Walter Powell is seemingly the next best option. None of them are worth drafting, especially as the team will clearly have to address the offensive skill positions heavily in the draft.
Tight end Charles Clay has finished as the 16th, 17th and 15th best tight end in the last three years, but will likely go undrafted. Seeing as that evens out to about 9.5 points per game, you should probably look elsewhere too.