The Oregon Ducks have a chance to win their second national title in school history this weekend at the 2017 Final Four.
For the first time since winning the inaugural NCAA Tournament in 1939, the Oregon Ducks have advanced to the Final Four.
Oregon had to face plenty of adversity on its journey to Saturday’s National Semifinal, with injuries piling up over the course of the season. The Ducks looked shaky early in the season when Pac-12 Player of the Year Dillon Brooks missed four games due to a foot injury, and lost one of the best rim protectors in the nation in Chris Boucher to a torn ACL in the Pac-12 Tournament.
Dana Altman was still able to guide his team through a difficult path to Phoenix that included one-possession wins over red-hot teams in Rhode Island and Michigan. The Ducks then turned in one of the most impressive performances of the college basketball season in the Elite Eight with a 74-60 victory over top-seeded Kansas.
Here’s a look at Oregon’s strengths and weaknesses as it heads into Saturday’s matchup against North Carolina.
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While the Ducks have a number of options including Brooks and Jordan Bell, who has been dominant on the interior during the NCAA Tournament, Tyler Dorsey has been the key piece during the Big Dance.
Dorsey is the second-leading scorer on a deep Oregon roster at 14.5 points per game and shoots at a clip of 42.3 percent from beyond the arc. The Ducks are tough to stop when Dorsey gets going from the perimeter, as evidenced by Feb. 4’s blowout win over Arizona when he went 6-of-6 from the perimeter.
With Brooks not shooting the ball particularly well over the past few games, Dorsey has keyed the Ducks’ offense. Dorsey has made at least four 3-point shots in each contest since the opening round and is 17-of-26 from beyond the arc with 24.5 points per game for the tournament overall.
The sophomore guard buried the game-winning triple in the final minute against Rhode Island before hitting a number of key shots down the stretch in the Sweet 16 win over Oregon. If Dorsey’s torrid stretch continues, the Ducks have a great shot to beat North Carolina and cut down the nets.
Strengths
Oregon is one of the most balanced teams in the nation with top 20 marks in adjusted efficiency on both sides of the ball per Ken Pomeroy’s ratings. The Ducks have posted nearly equal ratings offensively and defensively so far in March, but perimeter defense has been their biggest advantage to this point.
That starts with Bell, who has done a terrific job of preventing opposing guards from driving and kicking the ball out as the anchor of Oregon’s 2-3 zone. Beyond racking up eight blocks against Kansas, Bell did an excellent job of negating Frank Mason’s ability to slash to the rim and find shooters on the outside, as the high-powered Jayhawks shot just 5-of-25 from behind the 3-point line.
Michigan entered the Sweet 16 on fire from the perimeter but was held to 35.5 shooting by the Ducks, while Rhode Island struggled mightily from beyond the arc. Both teams found some success in the paint, so the lack of outside shooting was a huge factor in both Oregon wins.
Outside of Bell, the Ducks have a number of versatile and athletic players to turn to on the perimeter. Brooks, Dorsey and Dylan Ennis have all proven to be tough matchups for opposing offenses to handle.
Weaknesses
While Bell’s versatility has proven good enough so far, the Ducks have reached the stage where the relative lack of size due to Boucher’s injury could hurt them.
Kansas and Michigan were perhaps the best possible matchups for Oregon over the past two rounds, as both feature guard-heavy rotations and little depth on the interior. Despite being just 6-foot-7, Bell was able to dominate both teams in the paint due to his athleticism, but North Carolina is an entirely different challenge with one of the best frontcourts in the country.
Kavell Bigby-Williams is Oregon’s main rim protector in Boucher’s absence at 6-foot-11, 230 pounds. While the JUCO transfer has provided some valuable enough minutes over the past four games, he’s relatively untested against skilled competition, and the Ducks could have a problem if Bell or Brooks were to run into any foul trouble.
Biggest key to victory against North Carolina
North Carolina’s biggest strength is offensive rebounding, so Bell is going to have to continue his elite level of play to prevent the Tar Heels from going too crazy in the paint.
The Tar Heels grab nearly 41 percent of their own misses and were very effective against Kentucky and Arkansas on the interior. Tony Bradley’s length at 6-foot-10 looks like a big matchup problem, and the Tar Heels have plenty of frontcourt depth with Isaiah Hicks, Kennedy Meeks and Luke Maye.
North Carolina is not a great shooting team from the perimeter, so its No. 6 adjusted offense is fueled largely by second-chance opportunities. Oregon ranks just 128th in the nation in defensive rebound rate and will be even worse without Boucher, so the Tar Heels figure to generate several extra possessions.
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If Bell and company can somehow find a way to negate North Carolina’s offensive rebounding, the Ducks will have a great shot to advance to the title game.