North Carolina’s experience makes it the favorite to win the national title

The lone blue blood left in a sea of new blood, North Carolina has the inside track to win the national title.

By merit of beating Kentucky and watching Kansas fall to Oregon this weekend, North Carolina are the new title favorites. Vegas agrees. Now don’t take this as me saying the Tar Heels have this thing in the bag. With three strong teams left in the field, that’s far from true. Oregon dominated a strong Kansas squad for the first 30 minutes of their win. South Carolina’s defense has stifled opponents, while Sindarius Thornwell has been a star. And finally, Gonzaga was considered the best team in the country for most of this season. But Roy Williams’ team stands out from the pack.

I could sit here and write hundreds of words about UNC that you have probably already read. Being one of the premier teams all season, hundreds of writers have written more than I ever could about the merits of the Tar Heels’ play. I could tell you that their frontcourt is dominant. I could tell you that their up-tempo attack on offense is nearly unstoppable. I could tell you how Justin Jackson has blossomed into a star.

But because this is the Final Four, all the teams left are good. Gonzaga’s front court duo and Oregon’s Jordan Bell have been dominating inside all tournament. Gonzaga and South Carolina have the two best defenses in the nation, according to Kenpom. The Ducks’ Dillon Brooks and the Gamecocks’ Thornwell have showed out on the biggest stages all season. So on talent alone, North Carolina doesn’t stand out. What makes the Tar Heels different from the rest, however, is their experience.

Blue blood status

In college basketball, a “blue blood” is a program in the top tier historically. A team that, over a sustained period, has found success and been in the national spotlight. North Carolina certainly fits that billing. This weekend will be their 20th Final Four appearance, the most of any team in NCAA history. From legendary coach Dean Smith to now-leader Roy Williams, the Heels have been at the top of the college basketball word for as long as anyone.

For a team like North Carolina, success is expected. That may not seem all that important, but it is vital to establishing and maintaining a winning culture. When you step into the gym for the first day of practice and your predecessors have consistently accomplished great feats, you don’t want to be the team to let up and disappoint. Compare that, now, to the other three Final Four teams this year.

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UNC’s semifinal opponent, Oregon, is in their first Final Four since 1939. That was the very first Final Four, and as such the 78-year stretch between appearances is the longest in history. It is the Pac-12 conference’s first appearance this late in the tournament in 10 years. Both Gonzaga and South Carolina, the Heels’ prospective Championship game foes, are in their first Final Four in school history. The culture and expectation of winning are firmly in place for the fanbase in Chapel Hill. For those of the other programs, just getting to this point is more than expected.

All that said, wins decades ago should have little impact on the game, right? The players who will duke it out this weekend (pun absolutely intended) have been on their team for at most five years. Though the coaches do go back quite a bit further than that, long-term history seems like a drop in the bucket compared to short-term experience. Luckily for North Carolina, they have the other three teams beat there as well.

Experience

In case you’d forgotten, North Carolina played in the National Title game last season. They lost in quite possibly the most excruciating way possible. They returned 10 players from that runner-up team. That’s nearly an entire team. Their top four scorers this year were all there for last year’s postseason run. They know what it’s like to play in a big moment on the sport’s biggest stage. Do you think it’s showing?

Meanwhile, no player on South Carolina’s team had ever played in an NCAA Tournament game before this year. The furthest anyone on Gonzaga has made it is the Elite Eight and, while they still have five players from that 2014-15 squad, but that includes only one major contributor and two fringe contributors. Oregon made it to the Elite Eight last season, and several of their top contributors are back for this year. By experience, that makes them the biggest challengers to the Tar Heels. Overall, in the last four years, UNC is 9-4 in NCAA Tournament play. Oregon and Gonzaga are both 7-4, while South Carolina hasn’t played a game. Not just winning more games, but making it deeper into the tournament, is valuable experience for the North Carolina players. When the pressure is on in a close game and the lights are bright, the Tar Heels are less likely to be phased.

Not only do the North Carolina players have more experience, but their coach does as well. Roy Williams is a legendary coach, and the difference between him and his counterparts is even bigger than that between the players. He has won two National Championships, in 2005 and 2009 at North Carolina. He has been the NCAA runner-up on three more occasions. He’s been to the Final Four three other times. Scroll through the head coaching record section of his Wikipedia page and it’s hard not to be impressed. Meanwhile, none of the other coaches joining him this year have ever been to a Final Four. Here’s what that looks like in number form:

That makes all the difference. Oregon’s Dana Altman has used his phone-a-friend lifeline, calling others for advice heading into his first Final Four. Regarding whether that disparity gave UNC an edge, he said “I think it does.” Adding of his counterpart, “Coach Williams has been there, done that.” Such a stark difference in experience could be to Williams’ benefit as much as or even more than the experience advantage enjoyed by his players. Last week, I took a look at how coaches often blow big moments in close games. It’s easiest to pin blame on the players, but much of the time, coaches can be at fault too. Having been in those situations before should help Williams avoid such pitfalls. The other coaches may not be so lucky.

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North Carolina may not be the most talented team left in the field. They may not be on the hottest run of any team. But as they showed with an ACC regular season title this year, they’re right up there. When it comes down to it, experience may be the deciding factor. The Tar Heels’ massive advantage in that area far exceeds any that another team enjoys elsewhere. In a game where even the smallest mistake can swing momentum and in a tournament named for the madness that takes place, having been there before could make all the difference.