The Atlanta Braves have been rebuilding the last two seasons. Will 2017 be a year of promise for the Braves or will the rebuilding process enter year three?
It has been three long and trying seasons since the Atlanta Braves played in the National League postseason. This team has undergone its biggest rebuilding process in over 25 years. However, Atlanta is poised to get out of the National League cellar in 2017.
This will be the first season that the Braves will play at brand-new SunTrust Park in Cobb County, approximately 15 minutes northwest of Turner Field. The plan was for the Braves to be at least competitive for when they open up their new ballpark. It seems that the 2017 squad will approach that realistic expectation.
Though Atlanta is by no means a contender, there is reason to believe this will be the best year in Braves baseball in over four years.
Here is a look at what Atlanta could look like as it pushes to be over .500 and make some noise in the National League East.
Pitching
It’s been a long time since Hall of Famers like Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and John Smoltz took the mound for the Braves. However, that trio of starting pitchers set the tone for what it means to play Braves baseball. Atlanta will only be as good as its rotation allows it to be.
The Braves have a sure-thing in ace Julio Teheran. In his mid-20s, Teheran is an All-Star level pitcher than can anchor a good to great rotation. Any baseball team would want him to be in the top-half of their rotation. The issue with the Braves is who will end up being the four other starters that will complement him in Atlanta.
Expect it to be a mix of bold young and old arm talent. Atlanta brings three veteran innings eaters into the rotation in the form of Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey and Jaime Garcia. Colon and Dickey are over 40, but can toe the rubber for a weekly quality start. One is a soft-tosser, the other is a knuckleballer. It’ll be interesting to see how that shakes out in a new ballpark. Garcia is that crafty left-hander Atlanta always seems to have in its rotation.
The youth movement will continue for another year or so in the rotation. Expect one of those veterans to eventually be traded mid-season to make way for another youngster’s shot at cracking the rotation.
Right-handed fireballer Mike Foltynewicz looks to be the most promising. After a less than stellar 2015 campaign, Foltynewicz showed glimpses that he can be a top-three starter in an MLB rotation in 2016. Right-hander Matt Wisler will also be in the mix for a starting spot, but he will have to put it all together in Atlanta this season if he wants to stick with the club in 2018.
Lineup
Atlanta will feature a decent lineup this season. Catcher and third base are weak points for the team, but there will be talent all across the diamond for the Braves. Don’t expect a ton of power at the plate, but look forward to a heavy dose of manufacturing to be done by the Braves batting order.
The battery behind the dish will likely feature Tyler Flowers and recently acquired Kurt Suzuki. It seems that Atlanta would prefer its catchers to call a good game than to do much at the plate. Essentially, the floor is really low for the Braves have going at catcher this season.
Across the infield, Freddie Freeman will be at first, Brandon Phillips will be at second, Dansby Swanson will be at short and presumably Adonis Garcia at third base. Atlanta will probably upgrade over Garcia at third at some point, maybe with Rio Ruiz? Freeman and Swanson are franchise cornerstones. They’re not going anywhere. Phillips is playing for his hometown Braves, so he should have a lot of fun.
Look for Chase d’Arnaud and Jace Peterson to play utility roles in the infield on Opening Day. Expect middle infielder Ozzie Albies to be called up at some point during the early part of the summer. That could impact Phillips’ future with the club. Overall, Atlanta should be stout defensively in the infield and above average offensively.
The outfield will feature Ender Inciarte, Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis. This a good defensive trio left to right, but each offer something different at the plate. Inciarte is a leadoff guy with a good bit of pop. Kemp is a middle of the order hitter, probably providing Freeman with protection. Markakis can hit anywhere, but offers no power. Overall, the outfield has a high floor, but a low ceiling.
Bullpen
If injuries don’t wreck this team, a leaky bullpen will. There doesn’t feel like a lot of room for error in the back-end of the Braves bullpen. This is an area where the team while have to look to upgrade if it wants to make a serious push for the postseason.
A lot of familiar faces return to this bullpen. Right-hander Arodys Vizcaino would probably be the closer for the club. He hasn’t gotten a lot of opportunities in that role in recent years with the Braves rarely holding ninth inning leads. 2017 will determine if he is a closer or better served as a setup man or seventh-inning guy.
Jim Johnson is back to eat innings as a middle reliever and occasionally close games. He’s good for about two and a half months of pitching before teams figuring him out again. Mauricio Cabrera, Josh Collmenter, Luke Jackson, Ian Krol, Jose Ramirez and Daniel Winkler are guys that one should expect to see in the Atlanta rotation at some point.
Overall, this collection of pitchers lacks dynamism. Either one of the young guys needs to assert himself in a well-defined role in the back-end earlier on or Atlanta will have to succumb to the horrors associated with a leaky bullpen. If Atlanta can’t win 70 games in 2017, blaming the bullpen would be an easy first stone to cast.
Manager
It doesn’t matter what Brian Snitker does this season, he’s already doing a great job because he is not Fredi Gonzalez. Atlanta deciding to give Gonzalez the reigns for yet another undeserved season in 2016 was beyond unbearable to undergone. He was thankfully fired mid-season and replaced in the interim by Snitker.
Snitker had been in the Braves organization since the 1970s, previously being AAA Gwinnett’s manager and Atlanta’s third base coach before that. Atlanta looked across the landscape for Gonzalez’s long-term replacement. Bud Black and Ron Washington were viable candidates, but removing the interim tag was probably the best course of action for Atlanta.
Black would go to Denver to be the Colorado Rockies manager. Atlanta lucked into landing Washington as assistant coach during the hiring process. He was great with the Texas Rangers and the Oakland Athletics before that. Washington is a good person for Snitker to have in his dugout.
There are three things Snitker can do to stay in good graces with the vast reaches of Braves Country:
1.) Pivot. If a lineup doesn’t work, make adjustments. It’ll show the Braves faithful he’s proactively trying to make his team better.
2.) Get leadoff right. Inciarte needs to be the guy atop the order. Nailing the top two spots in the batting order will go a long way in supplementing Freeman and Kemp’s opportunities to drive in runs.
3.) Don’t be an idiot with the bullpen. Put pitchers in opportunities to succeed and not set them up for failure.
The players seem to have a great deal of respect from Snitker. He doesn’t have to be Bobby Cox to be well received in Atlanta. Ask what Gonzalez would do in that situation and do the exact opposite.
X-Factor
The 2017 Braves x-factor could be a lot of different players. Swanson could emerge as a near-All-Star level shortstop in his first full season in the bigs. Phillips could have an All-Star worthy season playing Gold Glove defense like he did for so many seasons for the Cincinnati Reds. Maybe Foltynewicz wins over 15 games as a No. 2 starter?
Any and all of those things could happen in Atlanta this season. However, the one guy to pay close attention to is Kemp. Atlanta chose to bring him into the fold in the midst of their rebuild. While he grew up in Oklahoma City, he was a die-hard Braves fan as a kid. Playing for Atlanta is a childhood dream for Kemp. Expect him to give it all in a Braves uniform.
Will the Braves be getting an MVP candidate like he was in Dodger Blue? No, but Kemp should be able to give the middle of the Atlanta batting order some bite and provide athleticism in the outfield. Kemp is not going to be what Atlanta wanted Jason Heyward to be, but he could be like Gary Sheffield was those two brief years in Atlanta over a decade ago.
Look for Kemp to be a lubricator with his unique skill set to help Atlanta get out of this rebuild and back to playing competitive baseball. If he hits decently, it will help Freeman considerably in his approach at the plate. Health is a huge issue for Kemp. He’s always been talented, but staying on the field hasn’t come easy for him. Atlanta expects big things out of Kemp in 2017. He must deliver if Atlanta wants to sniff a National League Wild Card berth.
Prediction
For somebody to improve, somebody has to get worse. Atlanta finished the 2016 MLB season with the third-worst record in the National League at 68-93. Only the Reds and the San Diego Padres were half a game worse at 68-94. The Arizona Diamondbacks were half a game better at 69-93 on the year.
Will the Braves be a top-five team in the National League in 2017 and make the postseason? Probably not, but Atlanta should be able to be a top-10 team in the National League and approach .500 this season. The question is will there be five National League teams worse than the Braves?
Let’s assume Arizona, Cincinnati and San Diego are all worse than Atlanta. The Braves could theoretically leapfrog the Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies into third in the National League East behind only the New York Mets and the Washington Nationals.
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The Chicago Cubs, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants will certainly be better than the Braves outside of the division. Teams like the Colorado Rockies, the Milwaukee Brewers, the Pittsburgh Pirates and the St. Louis Cardinals are the club to keep an eye on to see what Atlanta’s 2017 ceiling could be. Those four teams could go in a lot of directions.
Realistically, Atlanta will win somewhere between 72 and 77 games this season and finish below .500 for the fourth year in a row. If Atlanta achieves 75 wins, that would likely mean the Braves would finish in fourth place in the National League East.
Should Atlanta win 81 games and get to .500, that would indicate presumptively a third place finish in the division. That’s a reachable ceiling for hits young ball club. So let’s split the difference and say Atlanta will go 76-86 and finish in fourth place in the National League East, 11th in the Senior Circuit. For a downtrodden team, that would be a successful season for the Braves.