Boston Red Sox: 2017 MLB season preview

After a disappointing loss in the first round of the playoffs last year, the Boston Red Sox enter 2017 as one of the favorites to reach the World Series.

Major League Baseball had to be counting their chickens before they hatched last October. The Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs appeared to be on a collision course for the World Series. that would have given the league the best Fall Classic matchup since the Subway Series, featuring David Ortiz in his final season, no less.

Alas, the Red Sox went down with a whimper in the ALDS, losing to the Cleveland Indians. The league’s best offense went belly up, and the scrappy Indians sent Big Papi off into retirement without one more ring. Entering 2017, the Sox and the Tribe stand out as the class of the American League on paper.

As if the Red Sox weren’t already good enough, the front office went out and blew up their farm system to acquire Chris Sale. Losing Yoan Moncada might sting down the road, but for now, the Red Sox have one of the best pitchers in the league with a contract befitting a solid middle reliever.

With a dominant offense and a rotation that could be the class of the league, should the Red Sox be viewed as the best team in the American League?

Pitching

The Red Sox paid a steep price to acquire Chris Sale, and for good reason. Since entering the rotation full time in 2012, the left-hander with the wacky-waving-inflatable-arm-flailing-tube-man delivery has a 70-47 record with a 3.04 ERA. Sale is also signed to one of the best long-term contracts in baseball. He is owed $12 million in 2017 with two club options for $26 million total to follow that will most certainly be picked up.

With the addition of Sale, the Red Sox now have a formidable rotation to counter the Indians trio of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar. The Boston group of Sale, David Price, and Rick Porcello has proven to be more durable. Neither Carrasco or Salazar has a 200-inning season under their belts.

In his second season with the Red Sox, an increased level of comfort should allow Price to look more like the ace the team is paying him to be. His 3.99 ERA was his worst ever for a full season. The 2012 AL Cy Young started the season slowly, but had a 3.58 ERA in the second half. Price also had a sub-3.00 ERA in July and August. After an initial scare with a sore elbow early in Spring Training, it appears Price and the Red Sox have dodged a bullet for now. Tommy John is not in his immediate future. Price will not pitch in the big leagues until at least May, but that’s better than missing the entire season.

Rick Porcello is the reigning AL Cy Young and really came into his own last year. The right-hander won 22 games, bouncing back well from a disappointing 2015. Porcello has always had outstanding command of his two-seam fastball, and he led the league in SO/BB ratio last year. His offense frequently staked him to big leads, which made it much easier to pump strikes into the zone. Porcello will still enter 2017 with something to prove, but two of his past three seasons have been very good.

Backing up the big three, the Red Sox will roll with a combination of Eduardo Rodriguez, Drew Pomeranz, and Steven Wright. Rodriguez is one of the best young left-handed prospects in the league, but has had a hard time staying healthy. Boston paid a big price to acquire Pomeranz last summer, and he disappointed with his new team. In Spring Training, Pomeranz continues to struggle, and is being called the new Clay Buchholz. The knuckleballer, Wright, should have a leg up on winning a spot in the rotation because he does not offer much use in the bullpen.

The starting rotation has been a problem for the Red Sox over the past five years. The front office felt they had addressed their issues by trading for Sale, but injuries are already an issue before Opening Day. Kyle Kendrick could realistically see more than a few starts before Price returns, and that’s not a good thing for a team with World Series aspirations.

Offense

The Red Sox offense slashed a ridiculous .282/.348/.461 last year, leading all of baseball with 1,598 hits, 343 doubles, and 878 runs. Big Papi’s epic final year played a big part in making sure every hitter in the lineup saw good pitches to hit. It was shocking to see this offense shut down so easily in the playoffs, but Andrew Miller played a big part in that.

Even without Ortiz, this offense will not skip a beat. Mookie Betts is ready for another shot at a 30-30 season. He has gotten better each season in the big leagues, and is ready to lead the lineup. Alongside Betts in the outfield, the Red Sox have Jackie Bradley and Andrew Benintendi. Bradley is one of the best defenders in the game, but needs to show more consistency at the plate. He batted .296 in the first half and .233 in the second. Hitting lefties is still an issue for Bradley. Benintendi impressed in a brief spurt last season before an injury landed him on the DL. He is a polished hitter, but will have to show he can handle MLB pitching after it begins figuring out the holes in his swing.

The biggest beneficiary of David Ortiz’s big season last year was Hanley Ramirez. The mercurial first baseman rebounded from a down year in 2015 to bat .286/.361/.505 with 30 home runs and 111 RBIs. He did most of his damage batting fifth, right behind Ortiz. Ramirez looked reinvigorated after moving back to the infield last year, and a locked-in, engaged, and focused HanRam is still one of the most dangerous hitters in the league.

Up the middle, Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts are one of the best offensive-defense double-play combos in the league. Pedroia was able to stay healthy for a full season for the first time in three years in 2016, and batted .318/.376/.449 with 15 home runs and 74 RBIs. He remains as pesky and fiery as ever. Bogaerts won his second Silver Slugger in a row last year, batting .294/.356/.446 with 21 home runs. His average was down slightly from .320 in 2015, but his on-base and slugging percentages were up. Bogaerts did have a disappointing second half last year, but he remains one of the best young shortstops in baseball, and could still be getting better.

Rounding out the infield will be some combination of Pablo Sandoval (best shape of his life, allegedly), Borck Holt, and Mitch Moreland. Chris Young will also get in the mix as a platoon bat against left-handers. Behind the plate, Sandy Leon will do the bulk of the catching to start the year. He was very good offensively last year, but Blake Swihart could replace him if he struggles. Overall, this lineup is dangerous from top to bottom, and should have no problem putting up over five runs per game yet again.

Bullpen

Pitching has been the biggest culprit for the Red Sox as they have labored through a fairly underwhelming (by their standards) stretch since 2012. Granted, they did win the 2013 World Series, but there have been too many last-place finishes for a team with this level of expectations. Boston’s bullpen was improved last season, and finished ninth in baseball with a 3.56 ERA. In 2015, the Red Sox bullpen was 26th in the league.

Adding Craig Kimbrel gave the Red Sox the dominant closer they had been seeking. He missed some time with a minor knee injury, but still struck out 83 in only 53.0 innings of work. Unfortunately, Kimbrel also had a career-high walk rate of 5.1 per nine and an ERA of 3.40. For some reason, he was awful in non-save situations, pitching to a 5.12 ERA in 19.1 innings.

The Red Sox made another big trade this winter to upgrade their bullpen, swapping Travis Shaw for Tyler Thornburg. Carson Smith, who had elbow surgery last spring, could return in the middle of the season, and could be a dominant weapon. Perhaps the most interesting name to watch in this group of relievers is Joe Kelly. The failed starter made 14 relief appearances last year, and allowed only two earned runs in 17.2 innings with 21 strikeouts. Kelly throws very hard, and could thrive in a new role.

Overall, this bullpen will be good, but could give John Farrell headaches from time to time. Lefty Fernando Abad must be better this season. Same goes for Matt Barnes. The Red Sox could be looking for an upgrade for the ‘pen at the trade deadline once again this season.

Manager

John Farrell is a middle-of-the-pack manager, really nothing to write home about. While he does have a World Series title to his name from 2013, his pitching staffs have continuously underachieved. As a former pitching coach, that’s slightly problematic. While he may not have always had the best staffs to work with, good managers find a way to get more out of the talent they are provided.

Handed the keys to a rotation with three aces and a loaded lineup, there’s not much Farrell can do to screw up this season. His biggest job this year is keeping everyone healthy, knowing when to rest his older hitters like Pedroia and Ramirez, and when to get Price, Sale, and Porcello out after only six innings. If Farrell can massage his starters’ innings and keep his bullpen from imploding, he will have had a successful regular season.

X-Factor

Pablo Sandoval is coming off quite possibly the most embarrassing season in the history of Major League Baseball. His voluminous belly broke his belt on a swing, bringing ridicule from all over the globe. Shortly after that ugly at-bat, the Red Sox shut him down for the season with a phantom shoulder injury.

By all accounts, Sandoval is in great shape this year and looks to have turned a corner in his career-long battle with weight.

"“He’s shown more in the first week of games than he did all of last spring,” the manager said. “From plays he’s made defensively, the range he’s showing, the way he’s getting down the line. He’s not a base-stealer, we know that. But he’s much more athletic. His at-bats have been much more consistent. This is like we have a much different player this year compared to last.”"

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Sandoval endured a terrible season in 2015 with the Red Sox — so bad that he stopped switch-hitting at one point. The Red Sox are paying Sandoval to play like the .294/.346/.465 hitter he was with the San Francisco Giants. If he is able to do that, this team will have an unbeatable lineup.

Prediction

The Red Sox outfielders gather in center field and celebrate after each victory. It’s safe to say we will see a lot of dancing and bowing this year from Betts, Bradley, and Benintendi. The Red Sox will win the AL East for the second year in a row. Their offense is too powerful for the Orioles and their questionable starting pitching to keep up, and the Blue Jays are a weaker team than in 2016. Anything can happen in the playoffs, where Chris Sale will be getting his first taste of postseason pitching, but the Red Sox have the feel of a legitimate title contender.