For waiting well over 100 years, fans of the Chicago Cubs are certainly deserving of their current state in life. A smart and measured approach to roster construction (and a little bit of luck sprinkled in), has given the Cubs the deepest, most complete team in Major League Baseball. Their team has at least nine players who enter the year as legitimate All-Star candidates. They have the best manager in baseball and the best front office.
In 2016, the Cubs led all of baseball with 103 wins. Their pitching staff had the best ERA, led by a starting rotation that was over half a run better than the closest competition. Offensively, they were second in the National League in OPS and runs, while leading the league in on-base percentage and walks. The reigning MVP and Manager of the Year call Wrigley Field home, and three of their starters earned a Cy Young vote. For very good reason, the Cubs are the overwhelming favorites to win the 2017 World Series.
Everything points to the Cubs running away with their second title in a row. They have a loaded lineup and rotation. Closer Aroldis Chapman was replaced by Wade Davis, a pitcher who had an ERA of 0.97 from 2014 to 2015. All-Star leadoff man Dexter Fowler was lost to the rival St. Louis Cardinals, but in to fill his spot at the top of the lineup is Kyle Schwarber, just a guy with an OPS over 1.000 in his postseason career and the potential to hit 40 home runs just by rolling out of bed. It’s a tough time to be a Cubs fan.
Honestly, why are we even playing the 2017 regular season? Just slot the Cubs in the World Series and let the American League have at them. If only it were that easy. Repeating as MLB champion has become one of the most difficult things to do in sports. There has not been a back-to-back winner since the New York Yankees won three straight from 1998 to 2000. The San Francisco Giants and their “even-year magic” are the closest baseball has come to a dynasty in this century. On paper, the Cubs have the makings of the next great dynasty, but it’s not that easy.
They do have their vulnerabilities, and there are teams in the league that can capitalize.
As mentioned above, the Cubs draw a lot of walks. They also strike out at a very high rate. Of the top-five teams in the NL that struck out the most last season, the Cubs were the only one to make the playoffs. Chicago hitters whiffed over 1,300 times last year and led the league with over 1,500 in 2015. In two years at the MLB level, Kris Bryant has struck out 353 times in 306 games. His strikeout rate did come down nicely in his sophomore season, but he’s still close to a K-per-game hitter.
The young hitters in this lineup have to continue growing as hitters. Bryant, coming off an MVP season, is still working on his swing. Schwarber boasts strong bat-to-ball skills for a power hitter. Shortstop Addison Russell and super utilityman Javy Baez also lowered their strikeout totals in 2016. Since struggling as a rookie, Baez has come a long way in the contact department. He still swings out of his shoes most of the time, but has managed to make more contact. Both should make a big leap this year.
In the sea of strikeout-prone hitters, veteran Ben Zobrist is a rock of consistency. He has walked more than he has struck out in each of the past two seasons. MVP candidate Anthony Rizzo also makes good contact for a home-run hitter. The strikeouts have been a problem at times for the Cubs, but their downward tug on the offense should continue to lessen this year.
The Cubs who were swept out of the NLCS by the New York Mets in 2015 have grown up considerably. In that series, they were wide-eyed and overwhelmed by the moment. They batted .164/.225/.297 with 37 strikeouts and only eight runs. A year removed, the Cubs struck out only 29 times in a series that went two games longer.
The biggest vulnerability for the Cubs last year was the bullpen. At the deadline, Theo Epstein parted with his best prospect, Gleyber Torres, to acquire Chapman. It was evident that this move was a pure rental, and the Cubs got what they needed out of the flame-throwing closer. Early into the offseason, Epstein made a move to replace Chapman, targeting Davis. It’s a high-risk, high-reward move, as the All-Star closer is coming off an injury-plagued season. Relievers are always volatile, and there is no guarantee that Davis will make it through the whole season in one piece.
Even with two months of Chapman last year, the Cubs bullpen still finished eighth in the league with a 3.56 ERA. They blew 15 saves and allowed 55 home runs but did hold opponents to the worst batting average in the league and the lowest OPS. Perhaps more than anything else, the group was just unlucky. With the exception of Davis, most of the key members of the bullpen remain unchanged. Carl Edwards Jr should be given a more prominent role this year.
The String Bean Slinger struck out 52 in only 36 innings last year and has dominant stuff. Hector Rondon is coming off a puzzling season in which he lowered his WHIP, raised his strikeout rate, but saw his home-run rate nearly triple. The bullpen has good potential, but there’s a reason Joe Maddon was wary to trust anyone but Chapman in the World Series.
There is one group of starting pitchers in the league with the potential to hold down the Cubs for four games and close out a playoff series, and it is the same group that slammed the door on them with ease in 2015. If healthy, the Mets quintet of Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, and Zack Wheeler have the type of velocity needed to blow the Cubs away.
The easiest way to take down a group of hitters as willing to take a walk like the Cubs are is to pump 100 miles per hour past them. No starter in baseball throws as hard as consistently as Syndergaard does, and Harvey and deGrom are not far behind. Wheeler is the wild card. He has not been healthy since 2013, but was viewed as a better prospect than Harvey when he came up through the system. Harvey is an engima, already two major arm surgeries deep into his career and not looking great in Spring Training. Matz, too, has struggled to put together a full season. It’s tough to predict that five young, power pitchers will make it through an entire season unscathed, but if the Mets can get to the finish line with at least three healthy, instead of only one as was the case last year, they have the best chance to topple the Cubs on the NL side.
Other teams in the National League look very good on paper, but are probably not constructed to beat the Cubs when it matters most. The Los Angeles Dodgers have a very complete team that will allow them to pile up wins in the regular season. Same goes for the Washington Nationals, but both have holes. Clayton Kershaw was not able to come through when the chips were down last fall, which has been the case for his entire career. Winning one playoff series, let alone the whole thing, has proven to be too much for the Nationals, but their lineup, with the addition of Adam Eaton and Trea Turner, may be the one that comes closest to matching the firepower top to bottom in the Cubs lineup.
On the AL side, several teams stand out as having legitimate World Series hopes. The Boston Red Sox, have one of the best young cores in baseball. Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr, Xander Bogaerts, and holdovers like Dustin Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez make the Sox one of the most dangerous offensive teams in baseball. This lineup will hit against any staff, and should be more ready for the postseason in 2017. The only hurdle facing the Red Sox is an iffy starting rotation, highlighted by the injury to David Price and uncertainty at the back end. Their bullpen is also a question mark.
Last year’s runners up, the Cleveland Indians reloaded over the offseason by signing Edwin Encarnacion, one of the most dangerous power hitters. That’s where they were lacking last season, as Mike Napoli had run out of gas by the time the World Series rolled around. The Indians will again have one of the best bullpens in baseball, and Terry Francona knows how to shorten games in a playoff series and use that to his advantage.
If Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salaza can join Corey Kluber in the playoff rotation this year, the Indians may not come up a game short in the World Series. Like the Mets, the Indians have the type of arms needed to smother the Cubs.
You could also make a case for the Houston Astros as a threat to the Cubs. Their lineup will play against the Chicago pitching staff. The Astros may in fact lead baseball in runs scored and home runs hit this season, but their own starting rotation may let them down. Look for Houston to return to the postseason but come up short of a matchup with the Cubs in the World Series. It’s hard to see any other teams in baseball having what it takes to knock the Cubs off their pedestal.
Perhaps more than anything else, the Chicago Cubs will have to conquer themselves to make it two titles in a row. Injuries and complacency are the two biggest threats to a team this good. It will be up to Maddon to minimize both. He must know when to pull his starters from a game early and allow the bench and bullpen to close out games that are already in hand.
Motivation has never been an issue for Maddon in his managerial career, so thinking the Cubs will be happy to rest on their laurels this year would be foolish.
There are much safer bets in professional sports than picking a team to win a second World Series in a row, but the Cubs have that dynastic feel to them. Their flaws are not necessarily easily attacked by their closest competition, and their shear depth around the diamond and on the mound make them difficult to take down.
If this team is the reward for waiting almost a century and a decade for a title, then it may have been worth the wait as a Cubs fans. This roster was built smartly, with room for improvement via trade. Everything points to another ticker-tape parade in the Windy City this November.