Cincinnati Reds: 2017 MLB season preview
By John Buhler
Last year was not kind to the Cincinnati Reds. Will 2017 be any different? Here is a look this National League Central team heading into the regular season.
After a strong run in the National League Central several years ago, baseball has been kind to the Cincinnati Reds. Cincinnati has been sub-.500 the last three seasons, coming off back-to-back years of over 90 losses.
The Reds went 68-94 in 2016, good enough for a three-way tie for the second worst record in baseball. Only the putrid Minnesota Twins of the American League Central were worse. It is now obvious that the Reds are in a full-blown rebuild. This campaign could be another trying year for the Big Red Machine.
That being said, the farm system is getting better and Cincinnati has accepted its role as a whipping boy in the National League at least for another season. The present may be tough, but the future looks brighter significantly by comparison. Here is a look at what the Reds have going for, or against them, entering the season.
Pitching
Pitching looks to be the Achilles’ Heel of this year’s Reds team. The starting rotation lacks a dominant ace, has its two most notable arms on the mend and will really hinge on the rise of some young talents to get Cincinnati over the top.
Injuries to Anthony DeSclafani and Homer Bailey hurt in terms of veteran experience and front-line talent at the top of the rotation. Where it stands now, Scott Feldman and Brandon Finnegan are likely to go one-two out of the Cincinnati rotation.
Add in that Great American Ballpark is extremely hitter friendly and Cincinnati might as well be a cellar dweller in an American League city. The Reds may have the bats, the defense and maybe even the bullpen to keep the team in high-scoring affairs.
However, the starting rotation does not currently bode a great deal of promise for 2017. Should top-tier pitching prospect Robert Stephenson come in and make a difference mid-spring, then the Reds will have to find a way to tread water in the early part of ball games due to a weak National League rotation.
Lineup
What might be the best part of the Reds could be their lineup. It has a good combination of power and speed sprinkled throughout it. Cincinnati is not going to be feast or famine offensively, living and dying by the the long ball, but it will need to score five or six runs a night to win ball games.
Center fielder Billy Hamilton and second baseman Jose Peraza can fly. While Hamilton struggles to make consistent contact, Peraza can get on base. However, he’s always been somewhat of a position-less player, so there’s that. Shortstop Zack Cozart, left fielder Adam Duvall and wily veteran first basemen Joey Votto can all drive in runs with some pop at the plate.
The battery behind the plate looks to be Tucker Barnhart and Devin Mesoraco. It’s a shame what has happened to Mesoraco’s once-promising MLB career. If he gets healthy, he’s going to make a world of difference to the Reds lineup. The bat is his biggest ally.
Overall, Cincinnati has both versatility and flexibility all over its lineup. There are guys that can hit up and down the batting order, as well as a few players that can play a few positions in the field. If Cincinnati is going to get out of the National League Central cellar, the lineup will be the reason for that climb to respectability.
Bullpen
If the Reds’ starting rotation doesn’t do it for you, well, then you’re not going to like the Reds’ bullpen. Not that it’s leaky, but being asked to hold leads in that launching pad of a baseball park will be no easy feat.
Players of note in the Reds bullpen include Raisel Iglesias, Tony Cingrani, and Drew Storen. Iglesias may end up being the closer or it could go back to Cingrani. He didn’t have a good 2016 season. Maybe he would have been better off being a roadie for Band of Horses last summer? He looks the part and every occasion he took the mound, Cincinnati was ready for The Funeral.
Beards aside, anything of promise coming out of the Cincinnati bullpen would be a plus. It’s a far cry from when Aroldis Chapman held down the fort with great balls of fire coming in at 103 miles. per hour.
Frankly, Cincinnati could experiment if it wants to in the bullpen, just to see what happens. In hitter-friendly ballparks, is it advantageous to fill a pitching staff with sinkerballers or flamethrowers? Maybe a the crafty guys that pitch to minimal contact will end up having the most success? Cincinnati’s bullpen is a mess.
Manager
After Dusty Baker left the Queen City mid-season in 2013, it has been the Bryan Price show in Cincinnati. For better or worse, the former Reds pitching coach has held this post for the last three plus seasons.
He’s been with the club since the peak of Votto’s career in 2010. Price has seen the Reds become the worst team in the National League since taking over. Maybe he’s the one that will guide this rebuilding club?
Price has a sub-.500 record as a major league manager. With his pitching staff being one of the worst in baseball, that’s not a great sign for his projected tenure with the Reds organization. It’s hard to say that he’s on the hot seat in a clear rebuilding situation, but that may be the case for Price.
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If the lineup can hold its own and the pitching staff doesn’t crater immediately, Price’s knowledge of the organization can be beneficial in how he gets the most out of this team. Creativity and forward-thinking will be Price’s friend in 2017. If he’s reluctant to pivot, it could cost him his job before the Midsummer Classic if Cincinnati is a bottom-three team in baseball.
X-Factor
A lot of guys on the 2017 Reds could get be the so-called x-factor this spring. Why not go with the table setter in leadoff man Billy Hamilton? If he can get on base consistently for once, he will be the igniter for the slightly underrated Reds offense.
His speed puts defenses on notice, knowing that he can score from anywhere on the diamond. The threat of him stealing will in theory aid the batting order behind him. Those players will either get better pitches to hit or can draw walks to create further havoc on the base path.
Add in his range defensively in centerfield and Hamilton could be looking at a breakout year for the 2017 Reds. Well, they need him to. He may have big bats behind him, but Duvall isn’t exactly a contact hitter with that big bopper bat of his.
In short, Hamilton’s ability to get on base makes the Reds offense all the more efficient. Should he struggle at the plate, it will create a bottleneck that will thwart the entire operation. Cincinnati can’t disappoint on offense this season. The Reds just don’t have the pitching to keep them in ball games. 2017 has to be a huge year for Hamilton. Otherwise, it might be time for the Cincinnati brass to move on from their former top-tier outfield prospect.
Prediction
Unless they commandeer some Angels in the Outfield, no, the Reds aren’t winning the National Pennant. Henry Rowengartner’s don’t exist and Rick Vaughn isn’t walking out of that bullpen. If a major league team ends up losing 100 games this season, it might be the Reds.
Looking at the National League, which team will be worse than Cincinnati this summer? Arizona and San Diego have their issues, but Atlanta and Milwaukee will be incrementally better. It’s not likely that Miami or Philadelphia are going to fall off a cliff either.
Cincinnati might indirectly battle the Minnesota Twins for the worst record in baseball. The starting rotation might get better as the season progresses, but slow start from that five might be too much for the Reds to overcome. That bullpen will inevitably break like that levee in Led Zeppelin IV.
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A fast start and a well-oiled offense will be the two saving graces for this team. The prospects coming up through the pipeline will be intriguing, but thinking the Reds will come any closer to a wild card berth would be wishful thinking. Expect them to go 65-97 and have the worst record in the Senior Circuit.