With their window to win closing quickly, will the Detroit Tigers make a final World Series push in 2017?
Last season, the Detroit Tigers rebounded from a sorely disappointing 2015 campaign to finish with a respectable 86-75 record. Unfortunately for Tigers fans, the team finished 2.5 games out in the Wild Card race and missed the postseason for the second straight year.
Also unfortunate is the passing of owner Mike Ilitch in February. Ilitch, who also owned the Detroit Red Wings, was widely known as the driving force behind big-money acquisitions intended to bring a World Series title back to Detroit. It nearly worked. The franchise made it to the Fall Classic in 2006 and 2012, and reached the postseason four straight seasons from 2011-14, but the club couldn’t bring the Commissioner’s Trophy back to the Motor City, and the championship drought has reached 33 years.
As the city mourns Ilitch’s passing, the team must decide whether or not to continue along the path Ilitch set to compete for a World Series title regardless of the costs, such as the actual dollars required to acquire free agents or to add big contracts in trades, but also in terms of prospects necessary to make such trades. Forging ahead with a roster built around superstars Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander, as well as All-Stars Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, Jordan Zimmermann and Francisco Rodriguez, makes sense. However, the plan obviously hasn’t worked thus far.
In addition to missing the postseason in each of the last two seasons, the current roster construction has left the Tigers with a farm system that consistently ranks among the bottom 10 in Major League Baseball. There is also very little depth to compensate for any injuries to the aging core of the big league roster. Plus, the average age of the players mentioned above will be 33.4 in 2017. Only J.D. Martinez and Upton are younger than thirty, and Martinez and Kinsler will be free agents at the end of the season.
Given those particulars, the window to win is closing. Nevertheless, some believe the best plan for Detroit now would be to stop adding high-priced veterans, tear down the roster, and rebuild.
But, the decision makers have yet to make a declaration in either direction. It’s likely the front office is waiting to see how the 2017 season begins before fully committing. If the Tigers start hot, and are in contention in the AL Central come the trade deadline, there will likely be a push to add one or two more big pieces capable of finally giving Detroit its long awaited title.
But if the club is struggling to play .500 ball, general manager Al Avila may finally swap players like Martinez and Kinsler, and potentially even franchise cornerstones like Cabrera and Verlander, for prospects.
Pitching
Verlander is 34 years old, but should still be considered one of the best pitchers in baseball. In fact, he finished second in the voting for the AL Cy Young Award last season after posting a 3.04 ERA with an AL-leading 254 strikeouts in 227.2 innings across 34 starts. A vocal contingent (including fiancée Kate Upton) believed Verlander was more deserving of the trophy than Boston’s Rick Porcello.
Overall, last year’s performance was a great sign given Verlander’s shaky 2014 season and an injury-delayed 2015. Likely a future Hall of Famer, it would be reasonable to expect Verlander to be very good, potentially great, again this year.
Verlander is still the ace of the staff, but Michael Fulmer is the future. Acquired from the Mets in the 2015 Yoenis Cespedes trade, Fulmer exploded onto the scene in his first big league action to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award. The 24-year old went 11-7 with a 3.06 ERA (which nearly earned him the ERA title) and 132 strikeouts in 159 innings across 26 starts. He’s likely to begin the season third or fourth in the rotation in an effort to combat overuse, but Fulmer has top of the rotation stuff.
Jordan Zimmermann was the American League Pitcher of the Month in April when he posted a 5-0 record with a 0.55 ERA in his first five starts as a Tiger. However, multiple injuries hampered the 31-year old right-hander in the second half and he finished 9-7 with a 4.87 ERA in 19 games (18 starts).
The sharp drop in Zimmerman’s strikeout rate is a concern. Zimmermann fanned 14.7 percent of the hitters he face in 2016 compared to 18.2 percent across seven seasons win the Washington Nationals. But, his 3.45 career ERA and 32-plus starts each year from 2012-15 suggest he is dependable enough to bounce back in 2017.
Young lefty Daniel Norris should see his first full season in the majors following a solid 2016 campaign. In 14 games (13 starts), Norris posted a 3.38 ERA with 71 K’s in 69.1 innings. Matt Boyd (6-5, 4.53 ERA in 97.1 innings) is the favorite to win the fifth spot in the rotation, but will be challenged by high-priced veteran Anibal Sanchez (7-13, 5.87 ERA in 153.1 innings) and 33-year old Mike Pelfrey (4-10, 5.07 ERA, 119.0 innings).
The pitching staff as a whole was in flux most of the season, but the rotation fared better in the second half last year as Fulmer and Norris established themselves as big league starters. The youngsters, plus a steady Verlander and a healthy Zimmermann should give the Tigers one of the best starting units in the American League.
Lineup
On paper, the Detroit Tigers have one of the best lineups in the American League. Last season, the Tigers ranked second in the AL in batting average (.267), on-base percentage (.331) and OPS (.769) and were third in slugging percentage (.438). However, Detroit ranked sixth in both runs (750) and home runs (211).
Future Hall of Fame slugger Miguel Cabrera is still one of the most feared hitters on the planet. Cabrera hit .316/.393/.563 with 38 home runs and 108 RBI in 158 games last season, and showed no signs last season of the calf injury that limited him to 119 games in 2015. Simply, the 34-year old first baseman was his usual productive, dependable self. A back injury shortened Cabrera’s stay in the World Baseball Classic, though it isn’t considered serious.
Ian Kinsler tied a Tigers franchise record for home runs by a second baseman with 28, the most long balls the Gold Glover has hit in a season since 2011. The 34-year old is still a quality hitter and defender, but Kinsler’s plate discipline has taken a negative turn with the Tigers. He posted a 9.6 percent walk rate in eight seasons with the Rangers, but has walked in only 5.6 percent of his plate appearances in three seasons with the Tigers. Also, Kinsler posted a career high 115 strikeouts and a 16.9 percent strikeout rate in 2016. Those aren’t great trends for a leadoff hitter.
Designated hitter Victor Martinez has been up and down over the past few years, but 2016 was a definite up year for the now 38-year old. Martinez hit .289/.351/.476 with 27 homers and 86 RBI in 154 games.
Outfielder Justin Upton got off to a slow start in his first season with the Tigers, and finished with a .246/.310/.465 slash –below his career averages in each category. However, there was no hotter hitter over the final month of the season. After the calendar turned to September, Upton hit .292/.382/.750 (a staggering 1.132 OPS) with 13 home runs and 28 RBI in 27 games.
Fellow slugger J.D. Martinez also ended the season on a tear. Martinez missed six weeks in late summer with a broken wrist, but caught fire after he returned to the lineup August 3. Across the final 55 games of 2016, Martinez hit .332/.392/.553 with 10 homers and 29 RBI. That should offer some hope for those concerned about the three-year lows of 22 home runs and 68 RBI Martinez produced over the course of the season.
Third baseman Nick Castellanos is one of the few bright young stars on the roster, and hit a solid .285/.331/.496 with 18 homers and 58 RBI, but missed the bulk of two months in the second half with a broken hand.
Upton, Martinez and Castellanos are all below average fielders, though Martinez does have a strong arm that plays well in right field. Fortunately, shortstop Jose Iglesias is still one of the best defenders in the game. Iglesias saw his offensive production following a breakout 2015 campaign, however, and hit just .255/.306/.336 last year.
James McCann is expected to handle the majority of the catching duties again in 2017. Other than lackluster batting average and on-base numbers fueled by too many strikeouts and an inability to hit right-handed pitching, McCannon has evolved into a solid backstop. He hit 12 home runs in 105 games, has a very strong arm, and has greatly improved as a pitch framer. Former All-Star Alex Avila is back in Detroit to serve as McCann’s backup following a ho-hum season with the White Sox.
Austin Romine is a valuable utility player that can fill in just about anywhere on the field. A middle infielder the majority of his career, Romine played every position other than catcher in 2016. He even made 13 starts in centerfield.
Speaking of center, the Tigers traded Cameron Maybin to the Angels for pitching prospect Victor Alcantara – a head scratcher of a move despite Maybin’s injury troubles because Detroit had no ideal replacement on hand. Tyler Collins has been up and down between Detroit and Toledo, but entered the spring with the inside track after starting 22 games for the Tigers in 2016. Mikie Mahtook, acquired from the Rays over the winter, entered the spring as Collins’ biggest competition but has struggled at the plate thus far. JaCoby Jones is also in the mix, and has raised his stock with a strong spring.
Bullpen
Often underrated, Francisco Rodriguez is nevertheless one of the greatest closers in Major League Baseball history. K-Rod enters 2017 with 430 career saves, which ranks fourth on the all-time list. After a three-year stint as a setup man earlier this decade, Rodriguez has excelled in the ninth inning over the past three seasons, having saved 126 games with a 2.85 ERA and 187 strikeouts in 183.1 innings.
Though he no longer lights up the radar gun, the still fiery Rodriguez has evolved and builds off his excellent changeup to consistently get hitters out. Last season, Rodriguez appeared in 61 games, recorded 44 saves, and posted a 3.24 ERA with 52 K’s in 58.1 innings.
However, should the 35-year old Rodriguez falter, Bruce Rondon appears ready to take over. The big, hard-throwing right-hander was a standout middle reliever for the Tigers in 2016, and posted his best season to date with a 2.97 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 36.1 innings across 37 appearances. Rondon blows hitters away with 100 mph heat and a great slider, a perfect ninth-inning combination.
Lefty Justin Wilson is a dependable option in the pen as well, and pitched far better than his 4.14 ERA suggests. Wilson appeared in 66 games in 2016 and struck out 65 hitters across 58.2 innings while posting a 3.18 FIP.
The rest of the bullpen consists of righty Alex Wilson, a solid middle reliever for the club, and recorded a 2.96 ERA in 73 innings spread across 62 appearances, Shane Greene (who pitched better than his 5.82 ERA), Kyle Ryan, Blaine Hardy, Mark Lowe and Buck Farmer. Prospect Joe Jimenez has the stuff to be a big league closer, and could either be a key bullpen piece for the Tigers, or a trade chip, in 2017.
Manager
Despite a rocky road over the past two years, Brad Ausmus enters his fourth season on the bench with the Tigers. Ausmus, who guided Detroit to a 90-72 record and an AL Central title in 2014, lost favor with many fans in the Motor City while guiding the club to an ugly 74-87 record the following year – the first losing season for the franchise since 2008.
Nevertheless, the front office stuck with him – though they didn’t necessarily offer a huge vote of confidence for the future. In the last year of his initial three-year contract, Ausmus overcame a dreadful stretch in May in which the team lost 11 of 12 games, and eventually led the Tigers to 86 victories – a 12-win improvement over the previous campaign. The front office rewarded him by picking up the one-year option in the contract, meaning Ausmus will remain in one of the warmest seats in the American League.
X-Factor
We still don’t know who will be the Opening Day centerfielder when the Tigers travel to Chicago April 3. Collins and Mahtook, both 27, have major league experience and began the spring with nearly equal shot at winning the job. The pair could still end us as a platoon, or another player may beat them both out.
A left-handed hitter, Collins has a .253/.309/.401 career slash with nine home runs in 134 games spread across three seasons. Collins showed some speed in the minors, but has yet to establish himself as a base stealer in the big leagues. He plays adequate defense, but is nothing special in the field. Collins also has a little bit of power, as evidenced by a 39 combined home runs between his 2013 and 2014 minor league seasons, but overall is an average option without much upside.
Mahtook, a first round draft choice by Tampa Bay in 2011, offered excitement as a rookie in the Rays in 2015 when he hit .295/.351/.619 with nine home runs in only 115 plate appearances. Unfortunately, 2016 was a disaster as he battled an oblique injury and slumped to .195/.231/.292 with just three home runs in 196 plate appearances. That included a painful 0-for-34 stretch.
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Mahtook has tools and potential, but he has struck out far too much (31.8 percent in the majors), doesn’t walk enough (4.2 percent) and just hasn’t been consistent enough at the plate. A change of scenery could be good for Mahtook, and the Tigers were the beneficiaries when Tampa Bay practically gave him away in January.
But wait, there’s more. JaCoby Jones (who like Mahtook is a former LSU Tiger) is the third man in the mix to start in centerfield. Jones earned a 13-game cup of coffee in Detroit last year, and though he didn’t explode onto the scene he is an intriguing option. Primarily an infielder in the minors whose 2016 season was delayed by a 50-game drug suspension, Jones has been the “standout” in the competition this spring, according to Ken Rosenthal.
Sources: #Tigers continue to do due diligence on CF market in event opportunity arises. JaCoby Jones standout in competition thus far.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) March 17, 2017
Through his first 14 games this spring, the 24-year old was hitting .310/.355/.552 with two home runs in 30 plate appearances. Jones can also play shortstop and third base, which increases his chances of making the club out of spring.
Of course, as Rosenthal pointed out, the Tigers have kept their eyes open to external options. There’s also Anthony Gose, a former starting centerfielder in Detroit who was outrighted off the 40-man roster but is still in camp, plus veteran journeyman Alex Presley. Both Gose and Presley offer speed and adequate defense, which is believed to be among the most important factors in the competition, but as non-roster invitees, their chances aren’t great.
Regardless of whose name is penciled into the lineup against the White Sox, none of the current options appears to be the centerfielder of the future for the Tigers. That would be 2014 first rounder Derek Hill, a good defender with elite speed. Hill could be an ideal leadoff hitter if he improves his discipline at the plate, but the 21-year old has yet to play above Single-A, which means he probably won’t be ready for the big leagues until 2018. Also, he is one would likely be one of the most coveted prospects Detroit could offer around the trade deadline.
It was surprising that Detroit traded Maybin, and ever more surprising that the club didn’t pursue a top free agent to replace him. Unless one of the current in-house replacements unexpectedly grabs hold of the job and excels, center is probably a position Avila will target in the trade market this summer.
Prediction
Detroit’s window for that elusive World Series title is closing quickly, and with the impending free agency facing Kinsler and J.D. Martinez, 2017 is the last best shot at a ring. However, the front office’s decision to stand pat, other that trading Maybin away, doesn’t offer a great deal of hope.
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The big-name core of the team still exists, and the pitching staff and lineup both look good on paper, but the roster appears to be too top heavy to contend for a World Series title this year. If injuries strike again, there simply isn’t enough depth available to keep the team in the race for the postseason.
As long as the front office sits on the fence between contention and rebuilding, the Tigers are likely to hover around .500. Expect 82 wins and a third straight season watching the playoffs from home.