DraftKings NBA Picks March 30
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks March 30
We are up to ten NBA games in the main tournament tonight. DraftKings has been splitting the night and the earlier games to help with the botched lineup lock thing, but it hasn’t helped quash the Twitterstorm much. The consensus is that a large percentage of the players want the game time lock back on. We will see where this ends up. At any rate, they are all in the main tournament tonight. Keep an eye our for resting players as the season draws to a close!
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The money line last night was all the way up at 291 DraftKings points! My lineups were ruined by Justin Anderson and off nights by Kemba Walker and Dennis Schroder. My Westbrook lineup didn’t have Dwight Howard. It was just one of those nights….
The winning lineup was up at 369.5 DraftKings points. He hit on the Philadelphia value of Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and T.J. McConnell. He also used a 2% owned Kent Bazemore and his 38 DraftKings points with Blake, Westbrook, and DeAndre Jordan. Not bad!
I can’t stress enough how important it is to watch our Twitter feed right up until lock time. We will try and relay the information out to you as soon as we can, along with any lineup changes. If you can’t do that, it may be best to avoid any of the later games. With the season running down, playoff contenders are sitting players more and more, and there isn’t always a lot of advanced notice.
If you would like to try DraftKings for the first time, use this link for the referral bonus! It is good for $10 worth of free entry tickets. We have plenty of advice on the site to help you turn that into a solid bankroll!
Point Guards
Best Bets:
James Harden ($12,400): Harden put up 61.25 DraftKings points on the Warriors – the reigning West champions in case you forgot – with a sore left wrist. You know, the one he shoots with. He has 135 DraftKings points in two games against Portland so far this year. You know he isn’t going to sit unless he absolutely can’t shoot, but considering he did fine against the Warriors, I would consider Harden the top option tonight unless I hear otherwise.
Damian Lillard ($9,200): Yes, he has been under value in two games against the Rockets this year, but it’s really hard to ignore Lillard’s recent numbers. He has at least 43 DraftKings points in all but one of his last 11 games. He has broken 50 three times and even topped 60 once! He may be a lesser-owned option if Harden’s wrist worries you.
Chris Paul ($8,600): Paul had 46.25 DraftKings points in his only other game against the Suns this year. Eric Bledsoe was in for that one, but Ulis has been almost as good defensively. Not that that’s saying a whole lot. The point is that Paul has things lining up for him to break 5x value tonight after struggling some against Dallas and Utah.
Honorable Mention:
Kyrie Irving ($7,900): Irving has 98.25 DraftKings points, or 1.5 less than Westbrook had last night, in his two games against the Bulls this year. Irving has been way above value against Chicago. I see little reason for that changing. The Cavs are still trying to lock down the one seed in the East. Irving will be a big part of that push.
Ricky Rubio ($7,800): Separation in lineups will be gained at point guard tonight. There are several good options with great matchups. Rubio has 91.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Lakers this year. The Lakers are still a work in progress on defense, so Rubio should have no issues hitting close to 6x value tonight.
Tyler Ulis ($7,200): His play has the Suns playing better than they were for much of the season! With Devin Booker leaning more towards doubtful tonight – and really, why would the Suns risk him? – Ulis will pick up more of the scoring load like he has over the last two games. He has 77.5 DraftKings points in two games with Booker out. Ulis should be in the hunt for 5x value again tonight.
Dark Horses:
Rajon Rondo ($6,600): Things have somewhat settled around the Bulls. Rondo is back to playing mostly starter’s minutes. He struggled against Philadelphia and Detroit, but a lot of guards do. Rondo has 85.5 DraftKings points in 60 minutes against the Cavs this year. If he plays 30 minutes, he will be a great bargain. Check to make sure he is starting before going with him.
Jordan Clarkson ($6,400): Clarkson has 69.75 DraftKings points in two games against Minnesota. That puts him squarely at 5x value. However, he racked up 48.5 DraftKings points against Minnesota a week ago. Can he do it again? His career-high 35 points were a big reason for the big night. Temper your expectations a little.
Ish Smith ($6,100): Smith saw a $1,100 increase in price thanks to having a very nice game against a defensively sound Heat team. Now he gets the awful Nets, so Ish could have a monster game. That is, if Reggie Jackson is sidelined again. Most seem to think he will be, but the Pistons have yet make it official. Smith could be a huge bargain with Jackson out. He wont be for the price if Jackson plays, though.
My picks: Smith(PG); Harden(PG), Rubio(G)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
Jimmy Butler ($10,000): Butler has 151 DraftKings points in three games against Cleveland this year. He has put up some huge numbers with Dwyane Wade out, much like I thought he would. Butler amassed all that against Cleveland with Wade in the lineup. He could have a monster game tonight, but that likely means you have to fade Harden. It just may be worth it.
C.J. McCollum ($7,600): McCollum has 82 DraftKings points in two games against Houston this year. Aside from a light night against Portland in a blowout, McCollum had two huge games against Denver and Minnesota. The Blazers are fighting for playoff positioning, and they need all the scoring they can get. McCollum has provided that lately.
Honorable Mention:
D’Angelo Russell ($7,200): Russell is still pretty inconsistent, but games like he had against Washington on Tuesday are why we keep rolling him out there. Russell has topped 50 DraftKings points twice in the last five games, which had made him a DFS darling. The other three? He has been under 5x value. There is risk with Russell, but if he drops 50 again, it’s worth it.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5,200): KCP is about as inconsistent as they come. On the other hand, the Nets are about as bad as they come. Caldwell-Pope has 63.75 DraftKings points in two games against Brooklyn. That leaves him at 6x value. He did it against Miami on Tuesday. KCP has a good shot of doing it again tonight.
Dark Horses:
J.J. Redick ($4,300): Uh…..his ankle is fine. Redick destroyed the Wizards for seven three pointers and 31 points. So what if he only had one assist to go with it? He was a great bargain at this price last night. If Booker doesn’t play, he will have a ton of open shots yet again. Redick carries a bit of risk, but he should be worth it tonight even if Booker plays.
David Nwaba ($3,300): Nwaba had a big game against Washington with Ingram out. He has played big minutes with Ingram out. Corey Brewer may be the starter, but Nwaba is the guy you want to take a chance on. He has 60 DraftKings points over the last three games. He looks like a great play again tonight!
My pick: Butler(SG), Redick(G), Nwaba(UTIL); Nwaba(SG), Zipser(UTIL)
Small Forwards
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($10,100): The King has 102.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Bulls this year. Denver and San Antonio both held him in check, but they are two of the top five small forward defenses in the league. The Bulls are solid, but not top five. James is a solid source of 5x value with the potential for more as the Cavs fight for that one seed.
Andrew Wiggins ($7,100): Wiggins has 109.25 DraftKings points in just two games against the Lakers this year. Look, I like T.J. Warren. I am a fan of what he has done. I will also admit that he could have another good night if Booker sits. However, the Clippers are very tough against small forwards. There is no guarantee that Warren’s extra usage with result in great numbers. I trust Wiggins against the Lakers without Brandon Ingram a whole lot more!
Honorable Mention:
Trevor Ariza ($5,700): Ariza has racked up 85.5 DraftKings points over the last two games against the Thunder and Warriors. Portland’s defense isn’t a whole lot better. His high numbers of steals and his good rebounding ability usually give Ariza a solid floor, but now he is scoring as well. He has 59.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Blazers this year. 5x value looks likely with the potential for more with the way he is playing right now.
Marcus Morris ($5,100): Morris has 61.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Nets. Now, the bad news. Morris only has 5x value once in the last ten games. That was against the Suns on March 19th, and he just barely made it. Judging by his recent performance, he still looks overpriced. However, this is the Nets. They have made lesser players look like All Stars, but he carries significant risk tonight.
Dark Horses:
Larry Nance ($4,600): Nance has at least 5x value in two of the last three games with Ingram out. Coach Luke Walton has said that Ingram will likely sit again tonight, and why wouldn’t he? The Lakers know what they have with Ingram. There is no sense making his injury worse. Nance doesn’t have a high ceiling, but he is a solid value source.
Denzel Valentine ($3,900): There is a great chance that either Valentine or Paul Zipser is a great value tonight. The risk lies in which one. The Cavs haven’t defended the off guard well all season. That wont change tonight. Can Valentine and/or Zipser take advantage?
My Pick: Wiggins(SF); Ariza(SF)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,900): Towns “only” has 97.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Lakers this year, but hey, we are allowed to complain if a high priced player is falling below value. Towns went nuts on the Pacers on Tuesday, and we all know that he has the ability to have a big night here as well. However, with Wiggins and Rubio both going off on the Lakers, Towns hasn’t had to do much. That could limit his value.
Blake Griffin ($8,100): Griffin had a big night at a low price last night against the Wizards. Blake’s price didn’t go up enough to be a deterrent tonight either. He has 95 DraftKings points in two games against the Suns this year. I doubt Chriss can guard him either. Look for another solid night for Blake.
Honorable Mention:
Julius Randle ($6,700): Randle has 75.5 DraftKings points in two games against Minnesota this year. Randle is still very young and very inconsistent, but he is capable of putting up some big numbers. He has been as low at 21 and as high as 49 DraftKings points within the last week alone. The past stats look good, but there is risk involved here. The reward could put you in the money though.
Tobias Harris ($6,000): Harris has played pretty well lately, which Detroit needs with Morris struggling. In two games against the Nets, Harris has 75.25 DraftKings points in two games against Brooklyn this year. Now, Harris is not without risk either. He has only topped 5x value at this price three times in the last ten games. However, like I’ve said before. This is the Nets. Harris could go off tonight.
Gorgui Dieng ($5,900): Dieng has struggled against the Lakers this year, but defensively the Lakers are not strong at all up front. Dieng has more than 32 DraftKings points in each of the last three games. Judging by the way he is playing and how poor the Lakers have been, Dieng could have a big night, no matter what the past stats say.
Dark Horses:
Nikola Mirotic ($5,800): Mirotic and Jimmy Butler are feeding off of each other very well right now. Mirotic has 112.75 DraftKings points in the last three games. Cleveland is a tough task for him, but that will make for a low ownership rate on a player that could go well above value if you take the risk.
Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,500): Aminu seems to be back on track after a slow March. He has at least 5x value in three of the last four games, and has topped 6x value in the last two. Aminu was sidelined for each of the first two games with Houston, so we have nothing previous to go on. However, just by the way he has been playing lately, he seems like a safe cash game anchor.
Jared Dudley ($4,200): If Booker sits, I want Dudley in at least one lineup tonight. He racked up 36.5 DraftKings points against Atlanta in what was a low scoring affair with Booker out on Tuesday. The Clippers are defensively strong, but I have little doubt that Dudley will hit value if Booker sits again.
My pick: Griffin(PF), Dudley(F); Aminu(PF), Dudley(F)
Center
Best Bets:
Andre Drummond ($8,000): Drummond has 66.25 DraftKings points in two games against Brooklyn in just 55 minutes. There is a chance that Detroit limits his minutes if the game gets out of hand, which it most certainly will. That makes using Drummond a bit of a risk, but he has the potential for a big night before he watches the end from the bench.
Jusuf Nurkic ($8,000): Nurkic racked up 28.25 DraftKings points in just 20 minutes against Houston while with Denver. Now, he has taken Portland by storm. He is feeding off of the fans’ energy and seems to get better by the game. Look out Houston, this could be a long night up front!
Honorable Mention:
DeAndre Jordan ($6,900): Many teams struggle against Phoenix’s front. Not Jordan. He has averaged 38.9 DraftKings points in three games against the Suns this year. Furthermore, all of that was with Tyson Chandler still manning the post. It’s a little weaker inside now from a defensive perspective. Jordan could be a nice under-the-radar play tonight.
Clint Capela ($5,600): Capela has at least 5x value in five straight games and nine of the last ten games. I don’t really understand why his price is staying this low, but I’m not going to argue with it. Capela has only hit 6x value twice, so his ceiling is fairly low, but he is a constant and consistent value play. There is room for that in any cash lineup and in a GPP lineup that you want to cash.
Dark Horse:
Ivica Zubac ($5,000): Zubac is very young and very inconsistent, but there is a lot of potential here. We know that Minnesota has size in the middle, but they aren’t strong defensively just yet. Zubac will have plenty of opportunities. Can he capitalize on those?
My pick: Jordan(C); Nurkic(C)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, and our picks for NHL and the PGA tour! We even have some EPL picks coming your way! I will also have the round by round picks for the NCAA Tournament, the place where your bracket is never busted. Once again, make sure to follow our Twitter feed leading up to tipoff