FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – March 30
Welcome to the Thursday FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for tonight’s ten game slate which kicks off at 7:30PM EST!
As a reminder, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Wednesday’s winning GPP lineup scored 389.1 FanDuel points on the back of Russell Westbrook (48% owned) who dropped 88.1 FD points! Over the first 129 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.7 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Over the first 129 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.7 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Wednesday night in the NBA was frustrating for Picks and Pivots as we got the late breaking news that Robert Covington would sit out which threw our roster build out of whack! Ultimately not having Russell Westbrook was the difference on this slate and the fact that our Atlanta/Philadelphia fell flat was just the icing on the loser cake!
Thursday Night we get a five game NBA slate with every single game having a 210+ game total so we have some great areas to focus our roster build on and with some big tournaments on FanDuel, we can throw some big time GPP plays out as well!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Damian Lillard ($9,300) I have been riding the hot hand of Damian Lillard down the stretch of the NBA season as Portland fights to get the 8th seed in the Western Conference and with a match-up against the fast paced Rockets tonight, I do not intend to change that strategy.
Portland has the third highest team total on the board, sees one of the biggest pace boosts of any team on the slate and is projected to score nearly 6 points higher than their season average. Lillard is seemingly trying to carry Portland to the playoffs on his own as he is routinely putting up 20 shots per night and has at least 40 FanDuel points in each of his last eight games.
Ricky Rubio ($7,700) Minnesota has the highest implied team total on the slate as they face off against a Lakers team they just faced only a few days ago. In that game, Ricky Rubio put up 19 points, 15 assists and 51.1 FanDuel points which would exceed 6.6x value at this price point.
Rubio has the top match-up of any PG on the board tonight as the Lakers rank 29th in DvP to opposing PG’s and he faces off against Jordan Clarkson who has the worst individual defensive rating of any PG on this slate.
On this slate I think it makes sense to pay up for the safety and upside of players like Lillard/Rubio to anchor your line-up as the price points are reasonable and the mid-range plays seem over-priced relative to their expected production.
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,700) The picture above pretty much sums up NBA DFS over the last week or so for most players (including me) as the late injury news and lack of clarity leading to lock has led to inconsistent results.
Inconsistent results and the volatility of DFS are perfectly summed up in player form by KCP who if you have played NBA all season, know that he can drop 50 just as quickly as he can put up 5! The Pistons get an elite match-up tonight against the Nets and any time we can target KCP in a fast paced game against a turnover prone team, we have to lock him in.
KCP has put up over 29 FanDuel points per game against the Nets this season which would easily exceed 6x value at this price point. KCP sees a nice usage bump when Ish Smith is running point instead of Reggie Jackson and with Smith now taking over as the starting PG, this is a great spot to fire up KCP who is coming off a 31 FD point outing in his last game!
J.J. Redick ($4,300) The Clippers were fantasy juggernauts on Wednesday Night as the starters all had massive DFS night including Redick who returned from injury and put up 31 points (31.5 FD points) in 30 minutes of court time.
The Clippers get to face the Suns tonight and they see a massive pace boost but also have an 11 point Vegas spread so we need to be careful with our exposure here. Redick has performed well against the Suns this season putting up 25 FanDuel points per game which would exceed 5.8x value at this price point.
Shooting Guard in general is a rough spot on this slate as we have James Harden at the top, Devin Booker questionable with an injury and then a plethora of sub $5k value plays so I think it makes sense to live in the value range tonight although we saw on Wednesday night that fading the best player on the slate (Harden tonight) can mean you have no chance of cashing!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
T.J. Warren ($6,600) If Devin Booker is out again tonight, I simply see no reason not to fire up Warren on this slate as he is simply an offensive machine for the Suns at this point in the season. Warren has double-digit shots in each of his last 10 games including 20 shot attempts against the Hawks in the last game Booker sat out.
Warren is priced fairly as he has put up 40+ FD points in two straight which would put him right at 6x value so there is not immense profit potential here but on a short slate Warren gives us massive usage and demonstrated 6x value at a reasonable price point which we need to order to fit in some of the studs!
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($4,900) It has been a while since I wrote up any player on the Nets as their rotation is one I typically avoid in DFS, but it is hard not to take note of what RHJ is doing each night for Brooklyn.
RHJ has put up between 31 and 32 FanDuel points in four straight games which would exceed 6x value in every single contest during that stretch! The minutes are still very much at risk with no more than 25 in any of those games and the match-up against the Pistons is far from ideal, however the consistency in which he is hitting 6x value is rare for a player at this price point and I will be looking to him in GPP play tonight!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,600), Gorgui Dieng ($5,200) and Julius Randle ($6,700) In the front-court tonight, I am looking to stack the Minnesota big men against the Lakers and will run back Julius Randle as a correlation play from the Lakers.
Dieng and Randle both performed extremely well in the previous meeting between these clubs as Randle dropped 43.9 FanDuel points and Dieng put up over 30 FD points in the same spot which combined would give you well over 6x value at the PF spot!
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Even with the Wolves well out of playoff contention, the starters continue to see massive minutes as Dieng has played 35+ minutes in four of his last five games and has 30+ FanDuel points in each of his last three outings. The Lakers are ranked dead last in DvP to opposing PF’s and the price point is such that Dieng could easily deliver 5x value with demonstrated 6x upside!
Randle is a pure GPP play as he is extremely volatile and the price being just under $7k may drive some ownership away however Randle has hit 6x value in two of his last seven games to there is profit to be had on this price and if you are stacking Minnesota, it makes sense to have Lakers correlation plays as part of a late night hammer!
Towns to me is the play we essentially have to make if we are making the case of fading Harden on this slate. Any time you have a super star on the slate you have to look at the other options and think – can any of these guys match him? With LeBron James/Jimmy Butler facing off against each other, KAT stands out as the only other target for me that has the chance to match Harden tonight. Towns put up 51.6 FanDuel points against the Lakers when they met just a few days ago and you will need a similar output from him tonight at this price point to hit value.
From a roster build perspective on these short slates you need to take stands and mine tonight is that I am fading James Harden and stacking Minnesota against the Lakers. Let’s hope it works out better than my Westbrook fade last night otherwise I am going to look like RHJ taking a pass in the face from KCP!
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking line-up news and roster updates!