Fantasy Football 2017: New England Patriots outlook
In the lead up to the NFL Draft, we’ll be assessing the fantasy-relevant assets on every team. How can we make sense of the fantasy value of Bill Belichick’s multiple weapons?
Tom Brady
It doesn’t matter that he missed four games, seemingly had no outside weapons, and lost one of the best targets in the NFL in Rob Gronkowski, Brady still got it done. He went 14-1, had a 28:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and the second highest completion percentage of his career; all at the age of 39. Looking at his past three seasons, he’s thrown 97 touchdowns compared to just 18 picks (over a 5:1 ratio). I don’t know if he’ll make it six or seven more years, but he’s playing at his peak right now.
While I wouldn’t advise overdrafting a quarterback, Brady should definitely be on your radar in the mid-rounds. With the return of “Gronk” and the addition of Brandin Cooks, who might be the team’s most talented wideout since Randy Moss, Brady is in for another huge year.
Dion Lewis, James White and Rex Burkhead
Why lump these three together? Because the Patriots are already one of the hardest teams to project fantasy success for, let alone when they acquire three backs who play extremely similar roles. Burkhead is the hot name as the newest and most highly-paid of the group, White could (and perhaps should) have been the Super Bowl MVP, and Lewis had an outstanding start to 2015 before tearing an ACL and not looking his former self in 2016.
We know New England will score points, and we also know whoever their pass-catching back is in any given game will be a startable fantasy asset. What we don’t know is who that will be from week-to-week, but I’d suspect the plan is to roll with Burkhead. As we approach the season, buy him if the price is right, but steer towards the other two if he’s being drafted as an every-down starter. All three are role players, so it might be best to target the cheapest.
Brandin Cooks
Last year, Cooks was catching passes from future Hall-of-Famer Drew Brees. This year, it’ll be arguably the greatest quarterback of all time in Tom Brady. Not a bad start to the career of a 23-year old, who has all the talent in the world. He put up excellent numbers in New Orleans (two straight seasons of 1,100-plus yards and eight-plus touchdowns) but seemingly ruffled some feathers with his “closed mouths don’t get fed” comment.
Some drafters will be scared away by the prospect of all the mouths to feed in New England, and others will be excited that he’ll be in an offense that tends to get the best from whoever they have. I side with the latter. Do you think LeGarrette Blount could score 18 touchdowns in a season anywhere else? Would Julian Edelman enjoy the level of success he has without Brady and Belichick? As a Patriot, Cooks will have his potential unleashed, and he’ll be an elite fantasy option in 2017.
Julian Edelman
“Mister consistent,” Edelman has had three seasons of 90-plus catches and 950-plus yards in the last four and was on pace for those same numbers in 2015 before it was cut short with injury. In 26 of his last 31 games, he’s scored ten or more fantasy points, and is one of the most reliable PPR players around. If your draft strategy involves taking high-risk, high-reward wideouts, Edelman is the perfect person to pair with them. As he will likely fall due to his age, the addition of Cooks and the return of Gronkowski, he will be a good pickup in the mid-rounds.
Rob Gronkowski
I understand the concerns. The injuries are piling up, and they are worrying ones (he most recently needed surgery to repair a herniated disk) but man, what a talent Gronkowski is. There’s simply no other tight end in the game like him, and you should attempt to add him to your rosters where possible. Yes, there’s “added risk” with the amount of hits his body seems to take, but he’s on another level as a difference-maker at the tight end spot in your lineups.
We should view dips in ADP and value for elite assets as times to pounce, and if Gronkowski falls into the third round of your drafts or further, take advantage. It’s rare to have the opportunity to get a player who has averaged over 17 points per game in five of the last six seasons for a slight discount, but 2017 could be one of those times.
The Best of the Rest
We’ve all heard the rumors on Jimmy Garoppolo. Will the Pats trade him? Will they hold on? If he finds a new home during the Draft, then I view him as an “upside” QB2 and is certainly draftable. However, he might not get his shot. Chris Hogan had his best year in the NFL with New England, but shouldn’t be on your teams in 2017.
Next: Every NFL Team's Best Draft Pick Of All-Time
Dwayne Allen arrives as the Martellus Bennett replacement, but hasn’t produced any noteworthy fantasy seasons up until this point. If any team can turn him into a viable asset, it would be New England, but don’t acquire him unless we see evidence for it. Even though LeGarrette Blount was released, he will be a late-round touchdown-dependent draftee who could win leagues if the team brings him back on a cheap deal.