Houston Astros: 2017 MLB season preview
The Houston Astros are a trendy pick for the 2017 season, but did they do enough over the winter to address their weaknesses?
No team in Major League Baseball entered the offseason with a more precise plan to fill out their roster than the Houston Astros. By the end of the Winter Meetings, Houston had added an All-Star catcher, All-Star DH, former Gold Glove outfielder, and decent starter. The additions of Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran, and Josh Reddick will make an already dangerous lineup one of the most potent in all of baseball. Charlie Morton, the aforementioned starter, has looked great in Spring Training, and could wind up being one of the biggest steals of free agency.
Even with all of their wheeling and dealing, the Astros still left some wanting more. They have the prospects and pieces in place to make a trade for a true ace like Jose Quintana or Chris Archer, but are content to roll with most of the same rotation that posted a middling 4.37 ERA last season. The front office is keeping their powder dry for now, and betting on the offense to score enough runs while the pitching staff stays relatively healthy.
Houston has reached the point in their rebuilding process where it simply isn’t good enough anymore to post winning records like they did last year. A slow start to the season (as opposed to the hot start that carried them to the playoffs in 2015) doomed them, but this year’s roster, with another year of experience and even more veteran leadership in the clubhouse in McCann and Beltran should not have a problem getting back to the postseason.
Pitching
When Houston won the Wild Card and went to the playoffs in 2015, their rotation finished eighth in baseball with a 3.71 ERA. Dallas Keuchel won the Cy Young, while Collin McHugh won 19 games. Last year, both were hampered by injuries. Keuchel went 9-12 with a 4.55 ERA in only 26 starts. McHugh was 13-10, but had a 4.34 ERA. These two will have to be much better in 2017 for the Astros to live up to their World Series potential.
Keuchel has continued to battle a sore shoulder, but was named the Opening Day starter and has looked good in Spring Training. Keuchel has not been one to strike out a ton of hitters in his career, but he throws a heavy fastball that generates plenty of groundballs and weak contact. If his shoulder is right, he should look more like the pitcher who compiled a 32-17 record with a 2.69 ERA in 2014 and 2015.
It is less clear whether or not McHugh will lower his ERA drastically in 2017. He has seen his number rise from 2.73 to 3.89 to 4.34 over the past three seasons with a similar rise in FIP. Over the past two years, McHugh has given up well over a hit per inning, with a rising opponent OPS. He has to get better results from his changeup and fastball to be successful in the big leagues. McHugh has one of the better curves in the game, but his fastball tops out in the low 90s. McHugh’s arm strength has not progressed enough in Spring Training, and he will have to start the year on the DL. If there is a positive to take away, it is that McHugh has only given up one home run in 13.2 innings in the Grapefruit League.
The real wild card in the bunch is Lance McCullers who missed most of last season with a shoulder injury. More so than with elbow injuries, bum shoulders are difficult to predict, especially in young pitchers. Henderson Alvarez threw a no-hitter at the age of 23, but has scarcely been heard from since. McCullers has the potential to supplant Keuchel as the number-one starter on this staff if he can stay healthy. He struck out 106 hitters in only 81 innings last year, but also walked 45. A healthy shoulder should help his command even out.
Morton should have solidified his spot in the rotation with a good spring. His style of pitching should play well in the AL West, a division where it pays huge dividends to keep the ball on the ground. He replaces Doug Fister, who gave up too many fly balls to prosper in the heat of Texas. Joe Musgrove has the edge for the fifth spot, and has shown great promise so far in his career. Proven veteran Mike Fiers will provide depth to fill out the rotation should any of the top five be hampered by injury. It’s never a bad thing to have a pitcher with a no-hitter on his resume hanging around the fringes of your rotation.
If — big if — everything breaks right for the Astros this year, their rotation can be very good. That hinges on the ability of Keuchel and McCullers to stay healthy and McHugh keeping the ball in the yard. There’s some uncertainty here, but much less than for other contenders in the AL, like the Baltimore Orioles.
Lineup
This will be an absolutely fearsome lineup. At each position, Houston will trot out a player with the potential to hit at least 20 home runs. They will rotate three players — Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran, and Evan Gattis — through catcher and DH. McCann hit 20 last year, Beltran 29, and Gattis 32. Divvying up at-bats for all those homers is a terrible problem to have for manager A.J. Hinch.
As a team last year, the Astros struggled at times making consistent contact. They finished 13th in the AL with a .247 batting average, and were only 10th with a .417 slugging percentage. Houston also struck out close to 1,500 times, second-most in the league. That was 2016, however. This year’s lineup will look much different without black holes like Colby Rasums, Carlos Gomez, Jason Castro, and Jake Marisnick dragging everyone else down.
Jose Altuve remains the most interesting hitter in the league. The pint-sized second basemen has won two of the past three batting titles, while leading the AL in hits in three straight years. Last season, Altuve developed a home-run swing, hitting 24 out and driving in 96. He also hit more than 40 doubles for the third year in a row. It’s remarkable to watch him do what he does at 5-foot-6.
Carlos Correa slumped slightly in his first full season in the big leagues. It just goes to show how bright his future is that a .274/.361/.451 line in his age-21 season was disappointing. Correa stands to benefit the most from the increased veteran presence in the lineup this season.
Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel will round out the infield at third and first base. They are both entering their first full season in the big leagues. Bregman struggled initially after being called up from the minor leagues, but finished the season strong. He drove in 34 runs in only 49 games. Gurriel is a veteran Cuban hitter with a good approach at the plate. He stepped into the lineup last season without a hitch.
The most intriguing player to watch in the Houston outfield is George Springer. He was finally able to put together a healthy season in 2016, and played in every game. Springer hit 29 home runs and drove in 82 while also drawing 88 walks. There could still be another level for his game, especially if he cuts down on the strikeouts. Springer should finally make his first All-Star team in 2017.
In addition to their stacked lineup, the Astros also have a deep bench. Marwin Gonzalez can play every position in the infield capably, and handles the bat well. Nori Aoki will provide solid late-inning defense in the outfield, and Evan Gattis will be the big power bat off the bench most nights.
Bullpen
When the ‘Stros made the playoffs in 2015, the starting rotation covered for the leaky bullpen most nights. Last year, the roles were reversed. Houston had one of the better bullpens in the league, and it only figures to be better in 2017.
The Astros paid a big price to get closer Ken Giles from the Philadelphia Phillies. He initially bristled at the idea of setting up for Luke Gregerson, and struggled in the first few months of the season. Giles eventually claimed the ninth-inning duties, and finished the year with 102 strikeouts in 65.2 innings. He has one of the best sliders in baseball.
Solid relievers will pass the baton to Giles, including Gregerson, Will Harris, Chris Devenski, and Tony Sipp. Michael Feliz is a potentially dominant arm who could develop into a real weapon. He struck out 13.2 per nine in his age-23 season, but was plagued by the longball. With some more seasoning, Feliz will become a force in this bullpen.
Manager
Astros manager A.J. Hinch was in way over his head in his first big-league job managing the Arizona Diamondbacks. After that initial failure, Hinch has come into his own managing in Houston. He has shrewd analytical mind, and fits in well with the data-driven front office. That Stanford psychology degree has to be worth something, right?
Hinch excels managing the Astros because he is smart enough to take the data given to him by the front office and apply it without coming across as a pure number cruncher. He is very cerebral, but is still able to connect with an emotional bunch of young players. Hinch did not fit with the front office in Arizona, but the Astros are the perfect blend of new and old school for him.
X-Factor
While Dallas Keuchel has the Cy Young award to his name, the pitcher in this rotation with the best upside is Lance McCullers. Still only 23, McCullers looks like a budding number one, but only if he can stay healthy. In parts of two seasons in the big leagues, he is 12-12 with a 3.22 ERA and 10.2 strikeouts per nine. McCullers started last year on the disabled list with a shoulder injury, and was ultimately limited to only 14 starts.
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Control and health limited McCullers at time last season, and he walked 5.0 per nine when he was able to take the mound. His control must be better this season, but his issues are more likely tied to being rusty and working through his mechanics with soreness. McCullers has a power fastball and one of the best curves of all the young pitchers in the league. Houston needs an ace to step up and lead their rotation, especially if Keuchel falters. Lance McCullers can be that ace.
Prediction
Everything comes together this season for the Astros. Keuchel bounces back and gets close to his Cy Young form. McCullers is great for an entire season, and the bullpen slams the door. The lineup mashes from top to bottom and puts up over 800 runs. Both Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa contend for the AL MVP.
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The AL West figures to be the most competitive division in baseball, but the Astros will run away with it this year. The Texas Rangers, who went 15-4 against Houston last year, will come back down to earth in one-run games and finish in third place. The Seattle Mariners, another trendy pick, do not quite have the pitching to hang with the Astros. After hanging close for a few months, the Mariners and Rangers eventually fall back, and the Astros win the division comfortably.