The Kansas City Royals have had great recent success, but roster turnover, tragedy, and the impending free agency of several stars could mean a rebuilding year in KC.
The Kansas City Royals are a team in transition. After reaching the Major League Baseball mountain top in 2015 – winning the franchise’s first World Series championship in three decades – the Royals fell back to .500 in 2016.
Injuries were a major problem. Sparkplug Jarrod Dyson started the season on the DL. Third baseman Mike Moustakas and Alex Gordon ran into each other trying to catch a foul ball in May. Gordon hit the DL and Moustakas missed the rest of the season. Lorenzo Cain dealt with a hamstring injury and a sprained wrist, and Luke Hochevar was shut down in July after being diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome.
Though there’s hope that Moose and Cain can regain their form from their breakout 2015 campaigns, and for Gordon to return to the All-Star and Gold Glove caliber performer he was from 2011-15, Dyson was traded to Seattle as part of a minor roster overhaul that is likely a sign of things to come.
The Royals have Gordon locked up through 2020, and Salvador Perez still has two options on the long-term contract he signed back in 2012. Kansas City signed Ian Kennedy to a five-year contract prior to the 2016 season and extended Danny Duffy through 2021.
For most teams, that would be a significant step towards locking up the core of the roster. However, Moustakas, Cain, Eric Hosmer, and Alcides Escobar – all of whom played a huge role in the Royals franchise revival – are scheduled to be free agents after 2017.
Designated hitter Kendrys Morales and starter Edinson Volquez both left as free agents. Also granted free agency after 2016, Hochevar’s career is in jeopardy. Closer Wade Davis was traded to the Chicago Cubs. Worst of all, Yordano Ventura was killed in an offseason car accident.
Given the tendency for teams to trade players away during their walk years, thereby securing some sort of compensation for players that would otherwise leave for free agency, it’s possible that Hosmer, Moustakas, Cain and Escobar could all be trade candidates in July.
However, there’s just as likely a chance the Royals make another run at the postseason. In which case, fans in Kansas City can expect one last summer with the majority of players (many of them homegrown) that elevated the Royals to back-to-back AL pennants and a world championship.
Pitching
The Royals suffered a devastating loss over the offseason when Ventura was killed in a motor vehicle crash in his native Dominican Republic. Ventura was obviously a talented pitcher, with one of the fastest fastballs among regular starters and a great curveball. He was also adored by his teammates, who called him Ace. The team will wear a black “Ace 30” patch on its jerseys this season.
After beginning 2016 in the bullpen, Danny Duffy will be the Opening Day starter for the club this year. Duffy moved into the starting rotation in mid May when injuries hit the staff, and stayed through the end of the season. As a starter, the 28-year old posted a 3.56 ERA with 167 K’s in 161.2 innings. The Royals were 17-9 in the games Duffy started.
Overall, Duffy was 12-3 with a 3.51 ERA in 42 games last season, including 26 starts, and signed a five-year, $65 million contract extension over the winter. The lefty struck out 188 hitters in 172.2total innings.
A former top prospect with the Yankees and a 20-game winner with the Diamondbacks in 2011, Ian Kennedy has been a solid and dependable starter since. After joining the Royals as a free agent prior to last season, Kennedy put together one of the best years of his career. The 32-year old was 11-11 with a 3.68 ERA in 33 starts (the seventh consecutive season in which he made at last 30 starts), and struck out 184 hitters in 195.2 innings.
Kennedy posted a 22.5 percent strikeout rate, which was lower than the previous two seasons, but still good for a starter. His home run rate, however, isn’t. Kennedy surrendered a career high 33 long balls last season, 18 of which came in a nine-start stretch in June and July.
Still, Kennedy is a durable starter and he has been outstanding this spring. As of March 28, Kennedy had yet to allow a run and recorded 19 strikeouts through 17.1 innings across four starts.
Similarly dependable veteran right-hander Jason Hammel joined the Royals staff after posting a 15-10 record and 3.83 ERA in 30 starts with the World Series champion Cubs last season.
Some of Hammel’s statistics are moving in the wrong direction, including a 20.8 percent strikeout rate that was his lowest since 2013, and a 7.7 percent walk rate that was his highest in four years. Hammel also tends to fade in the second half of the season, which played a role in the decision Chicago made to keep him out of the mix during the postseason.
Nevertheless, the 34-year old was a solid performer in the regular season, and he’s added a changeup in an effort to be more effective in 2017.
Lefty Jason Vargas returned in September from Tommy John surgery and looked great in three starts. In 12 innings, Vargas posted a 2.25 ERA, struk out 11 and walked three. Though his fastball sits in the mid-80s, Vargas has relied on craftiness to get hitters out during the course of an 11-year major league career. He’ll do so again in the back end of the Royals rotation this season.
Nathan Karns, a newcomer that arrived in Kansas City when Dyson was traded to the Mariners, beat out Chris Young and Travis Wood for the fifth starter spot this spring. Karns has good stuff, and has impressed at times, though his numbers were rough in 2016.
The 25-year old posted a 5.15 ERA in 22 appearances with Seattle, including 15 starts. His 10.8 percent walk rate was the sixth highest in the big leagues and he also missed the final two months of the season with a lower back strain. However, Karns recorded a 4.05 FIP, and he struck out 101 hitters in 94.1 innings and posted a good 24.2 percent strikeout rate.
Top pitching prospects Matt Strahm, Eric Skoglund and Josh Staumont could make an impact at the major league level in 2017. Strahm posted a 1.23 ERA with 30 strikeouts in 22 innings (21 appearances) as a rookie reliever last season. Though he’s a candidate to start in the future, Strahm may be needed in the bullpen again this year.
Lineup
Hosmer, Moustakas and Cain should all be in the Opening Day lineup for Kansas City, though it’s no sure thing they will finish the season there.
Hosmer spent a large part of his spring playing first base for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, and was a unanimous selection for the All-WBC Team. He also hit a game-winning homer against Venezuela in the second round of the tournament.
Last season, Hosmer hit .266/.328/.433 – a far cry from the .324/.382/.547 mark he posted through the first 60 games of the season – but set career highs with 25 home runs and 104 RBI. He was an All-Star for the first time following three Gold Glove seasons.
Though hasn’t lived up to his power potential in part because he ranks among the league leaders in ground ball percentage (59 percent in 2016), the 27-year old left-handed hitter is entering his prime. He is also represented by Scott Boras, which will make it difficult for KC to sign Hosmer to a long-term extension before he hits the open market at the end of the year.
Lorenzo Cain has expressed interest in signing a long-term deal with the Royals, which would be great for both he and the club. Cain suffered a hamstring injury and sprained wrist that limited him to 103 games, and his numbers fell off as a result. After finishing third in the AL MVP vote in 2015, Cain posted a .287/.339/.408 slash with nine homers, 56 RBI, 56 runs scored and 14 stolen bases – all worse than his All-Star season. However, Cain did improve his walk rate to 7.1 percent, and he is still an elite center fielder.
Mike Moustakas also struggled with injury, and missed time in May with a broken thumb, then was lost for the rest of the season due to the knee injury he suffered in a collision with Alex Gordon. Following an All-Star 2015 season in which he posted career highs with a .284/.348/.470 slash, 22 home runs and 82 RBI, Moustakas played in just his just 27 games last year. He hit .240/.301/.500 with seven home runs and 13 RBI.
Healthy again and back at third base, Moose should provide an instant boost to the lineup. He also hit five homers in his first 54 at bats this spring, which is a good sign he’ll be productive at the plate in what could be his last year in Kansas City.
As for the rest of the roster core, Gordon hopes to recover from an ugly season at the plate in which he hit .220/.312/.380 with 17 home runs, 40 RBI and 148 strikeouts. The 29.2 percent strikeout rate Gordon posted last season was the highest of his career by more than six percentage points. Despite his low batting average last year, he can still work a walk, which makes Gordon a valuable option as the club’s leadoff hitter.
Catcher Salvador Perez gave Royals fans a scare during the WBC when he suffered minor knee and elbow injuries in a collision with his Royals teammate and backup Drew Butera. However, Perez is expected to be behind the plate on Opening Day.
An All-Star and Gold Glove winner in each of the past four seasons, Perez has also played at least 138 games each of the last four years, making him one of the most dependable backstops in the majors. Last season, Perez hit .247/.288/.438 with a career high 22 home runs – important because injuries to several regulars forced Yost to put Perez higher in the order than usual. Overall, Perez’s offensive performance earned him his first Silver Slugger Award.
Like Perez, Alcides Escobar played for Team Venezuela in the WBC and therefore missed time in camp with the Royals. Still a solid defensive shortstop, Escobar will hopefully hit in the lower half of the lineup this season after spending most of the last few years as the team’s leadoff hitter. Though he has the speed that’s an asset at the top of the order, Escobar has just a .297 career on-base percentage because of a 4.1 percent walk rate. Manager Ned Yost finally dropped Escobar in the lineup in late summer 2016, and he’s likely to hit seventh or eighth in 2017.
Escobar hit .261/.292/.350 with a career high seven home runs and 55 RBI last season. The 30-year old scored 57 runs and stole 17 bases and played in all 162 games for the second time in three seasons.
Rounding out the lineup, newcomers Brandon Moss and Jorge Soler will add home run power. Moss clubbed 28 home runs with the Cardinals last season, and will likely handle the DH duties and play some outfield this year.
Soler, who is expected to begin the season on the DL with an oblique strain, came to the Royals from the Cubs in exchange for closer Wade Davis. Though he has the potential to hit 30 home runs, and hit 12 in 264 plate appearances with Chicago last year, injuries have limited Soler to 211 games in three big league seasons. With Soler on the shelf, expect Paulo Orlando to start the season in right field.
One of the biggest surprises in camp has been infielder Raul Mondesi, who hit .375/.388/.625 with three home runs in his first 48 games this spring. The son of former All-Star Raul Mondesi, and the brother of Raul Mondesi Jr., Mondesi hit just .185/.231/.281 in 47 games for the Royals last season. Many expected the 21-year old to begin the season in the minors, but Yost announced Mondesi beat out Whit Merrifield, Christian Colon and Cheslor Cuthbert for the starting second base job.
Cuthbert, Colon and Merrifield could all be used as utility players this season, and dynamic speedster Terrence Gore will backup in the outfield and pinch run. Corner infielder/first baseman/former catcher Peter O’Brien was sent to Triple-A late in spring training, but has huge raw power and could be a contributor in 2017 – especially with Soler out.
Prospect Hunter Dozier is also likely to make it back to the big leagues at some point in 2017 following a cup of coffee last year, and slugger Ryan O’Hearn may make his debut – especially if the Royals part with one or two of their big names at the trade deadline.
Bullpen
Kelvin Herrera will have the closing duties to himself in 2017 following the Davis trade, and it’s about time. Though he didn’t hit 100 on the gun for the first time in five full big league seasons (he topped out at 99.9 miles per hour according to PITCHf/x data), Herrera still averages better than 96.7 miles on his fastball and his slider has improved every year.
Last season, Herrera appeared in 72 games, and finished 23 of them. He was 2-6 with a 2.75 ERA, 12 saves and 86 strikeouts in 72 innings. The two-time All-Star posted a career high 30.4 percent strikeout rate, and cut his walks to a career low 4.2 percent following three seasons of 8.6 percent or higher. His 0.958 WHIP was also a personal best.
Former Royals closer Joakim Soria is Herrera’s top setup man and could be a ninth inning option for the club again if necessary. Soria, who pitched in Kansas City from 2007-11, posted a mediocre 4.05 ERA and 4.36 FIP in 60.1 innings with the Royals after spending the previous three seasons with the Rangers, Tigers and Pirates. His 23.2 percent strikeout was the lowest of his major league career, and his 9.2 percent walk rate was his second highest.
Sidearm Australian Peter Moylan is back in the bullpen after posting a 3.43 ERA in 50 games last year, and likely secured his spot for Opening Day. Strahm, a lefty, is likely to be a major contributor, and Scott Alexander is also in the mix.
A trio of former big league starters, Mike Minor, Chris Young, and Travis Wood give the Royals depth and bullpen help. Minor hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2014 due to shoulder injuries, but the former Braves lefty is likely to play a key role in the Kansas City bullpen this year. In his first nine appearances this spring, Minor has a 0.75 with 11 strikeouts in 12 innings.
Wood was solid for the Cubs as a reliever last season, and posted a 2.95 ERA in 61 innings spread across 77 games, with a 1.131 WHIP. He allowed a career low 6.6 hits per nine innings, but his 4.54 FIP is a concern. The lefty had added value for Chicago as a hitter, but that’s not as much of an asset in the American League. If Wood can get left-handed hitters out on a consistent basis, however, he’ll be a valuable member of the bullpen.
Young, who was 3-9 with a 6.19 ERA in 34 appearances, including 13 starts, was very bad in 2017. The 6-foot-10 Princeton grad also gave up 28 home runs in just 88.2 innings. As a reliever, his numbers were slightly better: Young posted a 4.71 ERA with 30 strikeouts in 28.2 innings out of the pen.
Manager
He’s always had the support of owner David Glass and general manager Dayton Moore, but manager Ned Yost has had an up and down relationship with Royals fans throughout his seven-year tenure with the club.
During his first three seasons, Yost helped a young Kansas City roster grow and develop. In 2013, Kansas City posted its first winning season in a decade. The Royals made a run to the World Series the following season, and won it all in 2015.
Yost has been praised for using speedsters like Dyson and Gore when the team needed to manufacture runs, and he’s been a master pulling the strings in such a way that Kansas City has outperformed its Pythagorean won-loss record in three straight seasons, and consistently beats preseason computer projections.
The club slumped last season, but because of injuries, Yost shouldn’t take the entire blame. He has deserved some blame over the years, however.
Even when the team was winning, Yost faced criticism. He was derided for putting Ventura into the 2014 AL Wild Card Game in the sixth inning – a move that played out badly. Furthermore, Yost has been blasted for placing Escobar in the leadoff spot too often, and for refusing to rest Perez on a regular basis. His bullpen management has long been a topic of discussion and has driven Royals fans crazy at times over the years.
Of course, the team’s 3.15 bullpen ERA over the last three seasons is the best in baseball, he has a World Series ring on his finger, and is one of the longest tenured managers in baseball, so Yost is doing something right.
X-Factor
Soler. His Royals debut will have to wait while he heals, but the club’s new right fielder has huge raw power and plenty of untapped potential.
Last season, the 25-year old hit .238/.333/.436 with the Cubs, who signed him to a $30 million contract in 2012. In 211 games spread across three big league seasons with Chicago, Soler has posted a .258/.328/.434 slash with 27 home runs and 98 RBI. Unfortunately, he hasn’t stayed healthy enough to keep himself in the lineup for a full season.
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With Morales off to Toronto, and the roster in flux, Soler will be called upon to produce runs in the middle of the order. If he stays healthy, Kansas City has a talented power hitter at its disposal that should be a major contributor in 2017, and a piece to rebuild around afterwards.
Prediction
Heading into the 2017 season, the Kansas City Royals are one of the toughest teams in baseball to predict: and not only because they’ve defied the odds so often over the years.
Because three key members of the lineup are scheduled to become free agents at the end of the season, there’s no way of knowing what the roster will look like on August 1. There’s hope that the team can get back on track following an injury-plagued 2016, but of course the tragic loss of Ventura will have an impact both on and off the field.
Overall, the Royals still have enough pieces to push for a Wild Card spot. There are also several dependable arms in the rotation, as well as a solid defense behind them, to prevent runs. The bullpen is a question mark with Herrera in the full-time closer role for the first time, but the track record is good. The injury to Soler throws a wrench into things, but if Kansas City gets off to a good start in 2017, there’s enough firepower in the lineup to compete in the AL Central.
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However, the rebuilding has already begun, which points toward more roster moves during the summer and another step back in the win column. Expect the Royals to hover around .500 through the first half of the season, and then unload two or three big names for prospects in July.
Once the dust settles, Kansas City should its first losing season since 2012. A 74-88 record and a third place finish in the division sounds about right.