With wounds from last year’s tragedy yet to heal, the Miami Marlins begin the 2017 season in search of their first winning record this decade.
The Miami Marlins spent the majority of the 2016 season in the Wild Card race, and came close to posting the club’s first winning record in 2009 before finishing with a 79-82 record.
On Sept. 20, the Marlins were 76-75 and had yet to be mathematically eliminated from postseason contention. Jose Fernandez, the 24-year old ace and face of the franchise, outdueled Tanner Roark in a 1-0 victory over the Washington Nationals to push the club over .500 for the final time that year. Fernandez allowed just three hits and struck out 12 in eight sparkling innings in what would tragically be his last game.
On Sept. 26, the day after Fernandez’s death, Miami beat the New York Mets 7-3 to pull their record to 78-78. Dee Gordon’s leadoff home run – his only long ball of the season – provided one of the most beautiful and heartbreaking moments of the year. Miami then lost four of its final five contests.
It’s impossible to think of the Marlins without also thinking of Fernandez. Not only was the right-hander one of the brightest young stars in the game, he was a joy to watch because of the joy he displayed while playing. It’s also impossible to speculate as to how much the franchise will miss his presence both on and off the field.
Unfortunately, as we turn our attention to the 2017 Miami Marlins preview, it is a subject we cannot avoid. The Marlins will honor Fernandez this season by retiring his No. 16 jersey number, and the team will play on in hope of breaking through with a winning record and making the postseason for the first time since 2003.
Pitching
Without Fernandez, Wei-Yin Chen is expected to be the Opening Day starter. Given that he was roughly league average last season (he posted a 0.8 WAR according to Fangraphs), that’s not a great sign for the rotation. The 31-year old lefty was solid in four years with the Orioles, but posted a career high 4.96 ERA in a career low 22 games in his first year in Miami. On the plus side, Chen posted a career high 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings.
The Marlins signed Edinson Volquez and hope he can reclaim the magic he had in 2014 with the Pirates and 2015 with the Royals. Last year, Volquez struggled mightily and posted a 5.37 ERA in 34 starts. His 16.3 percent strikeout was the worst for the 33-year old during a full big league season and fell well below his career average of 19.5. Simply put, Volquez would be a valuable fifth starter, but few teams would want to pencil him in at No. 2.
The club also added Dan Straily in an offseason trade. A soft-tossing 27-year old right-hander set to pitch for his fifth team, Straily was surprisingly stellar with the Reds in 2016. He started a career high 31 games and made 34 appearances, and posted a 14-8 record with a 3.76 ERA and 162 strikeouts in 191.1 innings – all career bests. Straily did lead the National League with 31 home runs, however, which is a cause for concern.
Adam Conley has a 3.82 career ERA in parts of two big league seasons. Conley, a 26-year old lefty, has struggled at times with command, but should be a factor in the rotation in 2017. Tom Koehler, who is also expected to be a starter for the fourth consecutive season. Koehler was 9-13 with a 4.33 ERA in 33 starts last season.
There is also depth. Justin Nicolino and Jose Urena both have potential, and can contribute in the bullpen if they can’t land a spot in the starting rotation this spring. Free agent pickup Jeff Locke was an All-Star in 2013, but posted an ugly 5.44 ERA last season. The lefty has an outside shot at a starting job, but is likely to begin the season on the disabled list. Severino Gonzalez, acquired from Philadelphia , has looked great in spring training despite poor numbers in the majors thus far.
Overall, the Marlins have options. Unfortunately, none of them comes close to Fernandez in terms of talent or production. The unit as a whole is probably the club’s biggest weakness.
Lineup
Despite the fact they ranked 26th in runs scored last season, and hit only 128 home runs as a team, the Marlins should be a good offensive club in 2017. The strength of the squad is the outfield, which should feature Giancarlo Stanton in right field, Christian Yelich in center, and Marcell Ozuna in left. The trio is also expected to do much of the heavy lifting in the middle of the order.
Stanton hopes to bounce back from an up-and-down season that featured yet another stint on the disabled list. The 27-year old slugger hit 27 home runs last year, and he ranks among the best in the game in terms of raw power, but saw his batting average (.240) and on-base percentage (.326) drop to career low levels.
Christian Yelich, who like Stanton, missed some time in camp this spring as he represented Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, is one of the more underrated players in the National League. Yelich produced a 5.3 WAR in 2016, according to Baseball-Reference, which was his third straight season with 3.5 wins or more. He hit .298/.376/.483 with 21 homers and 98 RBI and earned a Silver Slugger Award.
Ozuna was red hot in the first half of 2016, and earned his first All-Star selection. He tied a career-high with 23 home runs, but hit just .205/.264/.336 with six homers and 27 RBI after the All-Star break.
Second baseman Dee Gordon will probably hit leadoff again, but the speedster isn’t a truly ideal option atop the order. Sure, Gordon won the NL batting title in 2015 with a .333 batting average, but he only posted a .359 on-base percentage that season, which dipped to .305 last year. The left-handed hitter also saw his average (.268) come back to earth following an 80-game PED suspension. He did steal 30 bases in only 79 games, but a player can only steal bases and score runs if he gets on base first. Unless Gordon is the beneficiary of a .383 BABIP like he was in 2015, he’s going to need to improve upon his 5.2 percent walk rate from last year.
J.T. Realmuto had a breakout season at the plate with a .303/.343/.428 slash, 11 homers and 48 RBI last year. Realmuto ranked third among big league catchers in batting average last season. However, Realmuto has been a well below average pitch framer in his two big league seasons, which won’t help the pitching staff overachieve.
As for the rest of the lineup, Martin Prado is solid and consistent at third base (and elsewhere if needed), and is coming off one of the best offensive seasons (.305/.359/.417, 8 HR, 75 RBI) of his career. First baseman Justin Bour lacks star power, but has actual power with the potential to hit 25 home runs. Shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria doesn’t hit much, but is fun to watch with the glove and lead what is an solid defensive squad overall.
On the bench, Ichiro Suzuki is one of the most productive hitters Major League history, and is still worthy of a spot on the 25-man roster at the age of 43. Derek Dietrich is a quality utility man that hit .279/.374/.425 while playing second base, third base, first base and left field last season. A.J. Ellis is a terrific backup catcher, though the 35-year old isn’t likely to offer much offensively.
Bullpen
The Marlins had a middle of the road bullpen last season, as evidenced by a collective 3.8 WAR according to Fangraphs, which ranked 17th in the big leagues. Overall, Miami relievers posted a 3.63 ERA and 3.76 FIP, which ranked No. 17 and No. 21, respectively.
Closer A.J. Ramos was an All-Star last year and posted a 2.81 ERA with 40 saves in 67 appearances. The 29-year old right-hander struck out 73 hitters in 64 innings with a 26.3 percent strikeout rate that is solid, but below his career numbers (Ramos has a 27.6 percent strikeout rate across five Major League seasons).
Though Ramos has been very good in the ninth inning over the last two seasons, the Marlins went hard after free agents Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen over the winter. Both stars ended up elsewhere, but Miami continued to prioritize bullpen help and added free agents Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa as late inning options.
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Ziegler will begin as the setup man in Miami, but the veteran reliever has 85 career saves, including 22 last year with the Diamondbacks and Red Sox. Tazawa was a key member of the Boston bullpen for seven years, and posted a 3.58 ERA and 3.31 FIP in 302 games with the Red Sox. Last year, the 30-year old struck out 54 hitters in 49.2 innings across 53 appearances.
The rest of the staff includes Nick Wittgren, David Phelps, Brian Ellington and Dustin McGowan, who were all solid performers last season. Assuming the quartet can pitch close to their 2016 levels, with Ramos and the additions of Ziegler and Tazawa, the Miami bullpen should be a legitimate strength.
Manager
Don Mattingly was under appreciated during his time with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and took an opportunity that would show his true value when he signed on to manage the Marlins prior to the 2016 season. The team responded with an eight-win improvement despite Stanton’s drop in production and Gordon’s long-term absence.
It’s never easy to win in Miami given the ownership situation (which could change at some point this year, fingers crossed) but Mattingly does a solid job of getting more out of less than most managers.
X-Factor
Stanton. It’s safe to say the Miami lineup looks completely different without its hulking right fielder. If he can stay healthy, Stanton has the power and potential to hit 40 – possibly 50 – home runs. Of course, he’s yet to reach either mark in part because Stanton has made a habit of getting gurt.
Last season, the right-handed slugger was limited to just 119 games, which marked the fifth time in five big league seasons he has failed to play in 125 games. Stanton finished as the runner-up for the NL MVP Award in 2014 when he led the National league with 37 home runs and a .555 slugging percentage. However, he’s played a combined 193 games since.
Prediction
PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus’ projection system, and Fangraphs both expect the Marlins to win 79 games in 2017. Online sports book Bovada currently has the club’s win total at 76.5. The Marlins have the benefit of playing in the same division as the rebuilding Braves and Phillies, but both of those clubs made strides in 2016 and could be better this year. Also, the Nationals and Mets are both World Series contenders.
The new additions in the bullpen are intriguing, but a team can’t hold a lead if it doesn’t have one. The Marlins show signs of improvement on offense, especially if Stanton stays healthy and Gordon finds a way to get on base more, but those are big ifs. Also, unfortunately, the starting rotation isn’t quite good enough for the club to end its postseason drought.
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The loss of Fernandez is likely to hang over this team all season, and the stark truth of the matter is that losing such a young and talented pitcher will be felt for the franchise for many years to come.
Expect the Marlins to earn a third place in the division, and finish with slightly fewer wins than the computer projections: 75-87 seems about right.