Minnesota Twins: 2017 MLB Season Preview

The last two seasons have been a roller coaster for the Minnesota Twins, but signs point towards improvement in 2017.

In 2015, Paul Molitor’s first season as manager, the Minnesota Twins surged to an 83-79 record and a second place finish in the American League Central. It was a surprising and encouraging performance given the club had failed to win more than 70 games in a season since 2010.

The Twins benefitted from a young, largely homegrown roster that featured a few key veterans. Many of the franchise’s most talented players – notably Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton – reached Minnesota out of one of baseball’s top farm systems, and were expected to take the next step toward stardom in 2016.

Naturally, aspirations were high. And then it all came crashing down.

Molitor came under fire immediately when the Twins lost nine straight games to open the season – including seven losses by two runs or fewer, three one-run defeats, two of which were walk-offs. Minnesota finally picked up its first win April 15, and found a little momentum with a four-game winning streak. However, it quickly faded and the Twins found themselves 8-26 on May 13 and 18-43 on June 11.

Minnesota had a 33-59 record on July 18, the day longtime general manager Terry Ryan was fire. The Twins were 59-103 on October 3, the final day of the regular season and the day the club hired 33-year old Derek Falvey as chief baseball officer.

Thanks in large part to the losing streak to begin the season, which created a hole too large for the team to climb out, the Twins never spent a single day outside last place in the division. Minnesota finished with the worst record in baseball by a large margin.

On November 3, the Twins hired new general manager Thad Levine. A 45-year old that spent the previous 11 seasons with the Texas Rangers, Levine is a departure from the old school, 63-year old Ryan. Together, Levine and Falvey represent a new era of Twins baseball and a shift in the decision making the franchise intends to use to snap a six-year postseason drought.

Oddly enough, however, there was no major roster shakeup over the offseason. Molitor is still manager. Other than the free agent signing of catcher Jason Castro, the 2017 Minnesota Twins look very similar to the 2016 squad on paper. But that might not be a bad thing.

Pitching

When trying to figure out what went wrong in 2016 season, it’s best to begin with a long look at the pitching staff. Last year, the Twins posted a 5.08 team ERA – the worst in the American League and the second highest in the major leagues (and just 0.01 better than the Arizona Diamondbacks). The club allowed 889 runs – the fourth most in franchise history, and the second most for the Twins since moving from Washington in 1961.

Ervin Santana was the only real bright spot in the starting rotation. Santana posted a 7-11 record with a 3.38 ERA and 149 strikeouts in 181.1 innings spread across 30 starts. His 19.9 percent strikeout rate was his best since 2014, and nearly a full percentage point better than his career average. Likewise, Santana walked just 7.1 percent of the hitters he faced in 2016, better than any season dating back to 2013.

Though Santana is 34 years old, he has been very consistent, and is capable of another strong performance. Over the past seven seasons, Santana has recorded an ERA above 4.00 just once, and has made 30 or more starts six times (though a disappointing PED suspension limited him to 17 starts in 2015). Therefore, Santana is the certified No. 1 starter in Minnesota, and would be a desirable trade piece for Levine and Falvey to consider should the Twins fall out of the postseason hunt mid-summer.

Remarkably, every other pitcher that started a game for the Twins in 2016 – all 10 of them – posted an ERA over 5.00 for the club.

Of those expected to begin 2017 in the starting rotation, Hector Santiago was best. Though he posted a 5.58 ERA in 11 starts for Minnesota after a mid-season trade with the Angels, the 29-year old lefty was 13-10 with a 4.70 ERA for the season. Santiago, who has a 3.82 career ERA, struck out 144 hitters in 182 innings, but led the American League with 79 walks. He also allowed 33 home runs – a career high.

Phil Hughes, who signed a five-year, $58 million deal prior to the 2015 season, made just 11 starts before losing his grip on a rotation spot, then took a line drive shot off his left knee in his first relief appearance. It was the last time he took the mound for the Twins. Hughes was expected to miss only 6-to-8 weeks with the knee injury, but underwent season-ending surgery for unrelated thoracic outlet syndrome instead.

His final line was ugly: a 1-7 record, 5.95 ERA and 5.08 FIP with 76 hits and 11 home runs allowed in 59.0 innings. Hughes recorded a career high 11.6 hits allowed per nine innings and a career low 5.2 strikeouts per nine.

Though his season ended in a relief role, Hughes’ contract makes it likely he will return to the rotation. As of March 21, he had made four spring starts, and posted a 4.50 ERA with nine strikeouts in 14.0 innings.

Kyle Gibson has been even better this spring. Through five starts, the 29-year old right-hander had a 2.08 ERA with 13 K’s in 17.1 innings. The Twins surely hope that will carry over to the regular season as Gibson was 6-11 with a 5.07 ERA in 25 starts in 2016.

The final spot in the rotation was expected to be a three-way battle between Trevor May, former top prospect Jose Berrios and Tyler Duffey. Unfortunately, May suffered a torn UCL that required Tommy John surgery, meaning he will miss all of 2017.

May’s injury opened the door for Berrios, who made two relief appearances this spring before leaving to pitch for his native Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic. Berrios was dreadful in his first 14 big league starts, in which he posted an 8.02 ERA and allowed a .310 batting average across 58.1 innings.

The 22-year old struck out 17.4 percent of the hitters he faced as a rookie, which was better than most Twins starters, but a far cry from the 26.3 percent of hitters he fanned as a minor leaguer. A major issue was his control as Berrios struggled mightly to locate his fastball, and there were also rumblings that he often tipped his pitches.

Simply, Berrios has immense talent, but was so bad in 2016 that he may need to regain his confidence in the minors before getting back to Minnesota later in the summer.

Adalberto Mejia, who pitched just 2.1 innings in one game for Minnesota last year, could be a factor as well following a strong spring. Also, highly regarded pitching prospects Stephen Gonsalves, Tyler Jay and Kohl Stewart all reached Double-A last year, which means there not far from being big league ready.

Lineup

As for the brightest spot in the lineup, Brian Dozier hit 42 home runs, which set an American League record for second basemen. Dozier also led the club with 99 RBI and posted a solid .268/.340/.546 slash. Despite being the center of trade rumors all season, the new front office resisted the urge to cash in on Dozier’s relative high value and he’ll be back in 2017.

Dozier and first baseman Joe Mauer are the elder statesmen in the lineup. Mauer, the 2009 AL MVP, hit .261/.363/.389 with 11 homers and 49 RBI in 134 games last season. That makes three straight sub -.280 seasons for the career .308 hitter who has yet to regain his All-Star form following a 2013 concussion.

However, there have been stretches in which the almost 34-year old looked almost like his old self. For instance, Mauer hit .321/.453/.440 in April and .337/.419/.533 in August. Unfortunately, he’s been injury-plagued for years and a quadriceps issue sidelined him in the second half of September.

Miguel Sano began last season in right field, with disastrous results. The 23-year old slugger had been one of the pillars of hope upon which the 2016 squad was built following an 18-homer, 80-game 2015 debut, but Sano suffered a hamstring injury on May 31 that put him out of action for exactly one month.

Limited in the field, Sano split his time between a more natural third base and DH when he returned July 1. He finished strong, and managed to hit .236/.319/.462 with 25 home runs and 66 RBI for the year. Sano has 40-homer power, but is also a strikeout machine, having fanned in a staggering 35.8 percent of his major league plate appearances to date.

Like Sano, Byron Buxton entered 2016 with a great deal of hype and optimism due to his elite prospect status and 2015 big league debut. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2012 draft, Buxton is easily one of the most athletic players in baseball, but couldn’t get on track through his first 109 games. Buxton has plus-plus speed and plays Gold Glove caliber defense, but has largely struggled to hit big league pitching.

However, Buxton may have finally put it all together. Over his last 29 games, the right-handed center fielder hit .287/.357/.653 – a terrific 1.011 OPS – with nine homers, six doubles, two triples and 22 RBI in 113 plate appearances. It’s important not to get worked up over one month’s results, but Buxton’s September 2016 performance illustrates why he was regularly compared to Mike Trout coming up through the Minnesota farm system. But, again like Sano, he strikes out way too much: 34.5 percent across 469 plate appearances.

Fellow youngster Max Kepler broke out with 17 home runs as a rookie in 2016. Kepler hit a modest .235/.309/.424 and sometimes struggles in right field, but showed great progress as a 23-year old. Also, despite not showing it much in the minors, he has 25-homer power potential.

Left fielder Eddie Rosario is an intriguing player capable of improving as a 25-year old in 2017. The former infielder hit an MLB best 15 triples and added 13 home runs in 2015, when he finished sixth in the Rookie of the Year vote. However, Rosario displayed terrible plate discipline as a rookie that carried over last year. In 92 games, he hit .269 with 10 home runs, but drew just 12 walks and struck out 91 times in 354 plate appearances.

The rest of the lineup includes new catcher Jason Castro, a left-handed hitter with power that strikes out too much. Castro’s biggest impact will be as a pitch framer and steady defensive presence behind the plate. Though he too still strikes out too much (32.2 percent in 2016), designated hitter Kennys Vargas improved his plate discipline in 2016, as evidenced by 24 walks in 176 plate appearances (13.6 percent) compared to 21 in 418 prior MLB career plate appearances (5.0 percent).

Jorge Polanco hit .282/.332/.424 in 69 big league games last season, and the 23-year old has the inside track on the starting shortstop position. Polanco could break out if the Twins finally allow him to settle into a consistent role. Eduardo Escobar, who began 2016 as the everyday shortstop but got hurt and never reclaimed the job, provides depth at the position and could backup around the infield.

Danny Santana, another impatient hitter with speed and athleticism, can play anywhere in the outfield or infield. Robbie Grossman was a pleasant surprise at the plate in 2016, but is a bad defensive outfielder. Grossman will provide outfield depth and DH on occasion, assuming he shakes of a spring groin injury.

Bullpen

Veteran lefty closer Glen Perkins missed almost all of 2016 with a shoulder injury and is likely to begin the season on the disabled list. As of March 21, he had yet to pitch in a spring training game. Perkins saved 118 games for Minnesota and made three All-Star teams from 2012-2015, so he will likely factor into the closer situation when healthy.

With Perkins in doubt, Brandon Kintzler will handle the bulk of the closing duties at the beginning of the season. Kintzler posted a 3.15 ERA in 54 appearances last season, and recorded 17 saves. The 32-year old right-hander doesn’t fit the traditional closer mold (he struck out only 35 hitters in 54.1 innings), but is the best option available at the moment.

The rest of the bullpen should consist of Ryan Pressly, Michael Tonkin, and Taylor Rogers – who all performed rather well in 2016 – plus newcomers Matt Belisle and Craig Breslow, and whoever fails to win the No. 5 starter’s job (unless it’s Berrios, since he’d likely head back to Triple-A).

Manager

If someone told you before the 2015 that Paul Molitor would have a 142-182 record (which equates to a .438 winning percentage) through his first two seasons with the Twins, it would be a slight disappointment. It would also show slight improvement given the team hadn’t won more than 70 games in the previous five seasons. Of course, no major league manager keeps his job long winning an average of 71 games per season.

But, if you said that Molitor would lead the team to an unexpected winning record and second place finish in his first season, then lose 24 more games the next year, and then the franchise would turn over its front office, you’d expect him to be looking for another job. To say it’s been an odd introduction to big league managing is an understatement.

A Hall of Fame player, Molitor should have the respect of his players, and he has the experience to excel as a manager. But with a talented roster at his disposal and a new set of decision makers (who surely want to put their own stamp on the club) watching him closely, 2017 is a make-or-break season for Molitor in Minnesota.

X-Factor

He was mentioned only briefly above, but Jason Castro is arguably the most interesting and important member of the Twins roster at this point in 2017. He was the only major free agent signing the new front office regime made over the offseason, but by targeting the 29-year old backstop, Falvey and Levine offered a glimpse into what would be their decision-making process moving forward.

An All-Star with the Astros in 2013 when he hit .276/.350/.485 with 18 home runs and 56 RBI – career highs across the board – Castro has yet to develop into a major run producer. Instead, he’s proved his value as an above-average defensive catcher.

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Kurt Suzuki appeared in 106 games for the Twins in 2016, making him the club’s primary catcher. Despite a solid defensive reputation for much of his career, recent advances in pitch framing data show that Suzuki is actually one of the worst defensive catcher in the big leagues. By letting Suzuki walk and pursuing Castro, the new powers that be in Minnesota showed they are up to date on the latest trends in the industry – a good sign for Twins fans.

Castro may or may not improve upon his .232/.309/.390 career slash and he’s struck out at least 115 times four years running. But, if his defensive skills help the Minnesota pitching staff throw more strikes, it could make a huge difference.

Prediction

The Twins were at least a year ahead of schedule when they finished 83-79 in 2015, which made the expectations a bit too high heading into last season. Still, finishing with the worst record in baseball is an obvious cause for concern.

Nevertheless, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic. After all, if a team’s win total can drop by 24 with relatively few roster changes, it’s possible that club can win 24 more games the following season with largely the same roster. Not likely, but possible.

More specifically, Castro’s impact should help the starting rotation get back on track, and the pitching staff as a whole should be better in 2017. More strikeouts would help. The defensive lineup makes more sense with Sano at third, and the rest of the unit is falling into place around him. If the Twins can strike out less at the plate and work more walks (a tall task given the history of several key contributors), they have enough talent to compete in the AL Central.

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Like the Twins, the Central is in a period of transition. The defending AL pennant-winning Indians are the odds on favorites, but have injury issues already. Elsewhere, the Royals fell to .500 one year after a World Series title and are staring down another rebuild. The Tigers can’t decide whether or not to unload high-priced talent or make a major push for the Fall Classic, and the White Sox are in full blown rebuilding mode. In other words, there is opportunity for the Twins.

A jump back to .500 isn’t likely, but the Minnesota Twins should be much more competitive in 2017. Expect a 76-86 record and a fourth place finish in the division.