New York Yankees: 2017 MLB season preview

The retooling effort will continue for the New York Yankees this season, but can they surprise everyone and contend for the playoffs?

Being the most iconic franchise in baseball history is not without its drawbacks. As much as they might like to, the Yankees can never fully punt on a season and pull off a total rebuild. This is a team that has not had a losing season since 1992, and even if they understand the logic behind it, Yankees fans would not accept a total teardown.

It has not been seven seasons since the Yankees won the 2009 World Series over the Philadelphia Phillies, and four seasons since they last won a playoff series. Building their roster around high-priced free agents has not worked out. Brian Cashman and the front office have managed to rein in the profligate spending ways of the Steinbrenners, and there was actually an effort to auction off trade chips last season.

The Yankees farm system is better than it has been since the early 1990s, when the names that helped form the core of five World Series teams came up together. They have also managed to clear some big money from their books, and will be fully out from under Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia after this season. The Yankees will have plenty of money available to spend when Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Jake Arrieta, and Mike Trout enter free agency.

While they wait for the next wave and prospects and free agents, the Yankees will still field a very competitive team in 2017. The lineup will score enough runs, and the bullpen will hold leads. Adding Matt Holliday and Chris Carter was a very smart use of capital. These Yankees don’t have a real shot at a World Series title, but they will still be an interesting team to watch.

Pitching

Adding veteran starter Rich Hill this winter would have made sense for the Yankees. Their farm system is loaded with talented young hitters, but is still short on arms. The same goes for the big-league team. Behind Masahiro Tanaka, there is a whole lot of uncertainty in New York.

Tanaka has been as good as advertised in his three seasons since coming over from Japan. He is 39-16 with a 3.12 ERA. There have been injury concerns, however, but Tanaka did get close to 200 innings last year. The Yankees might have to accept that Tanaka is never going to be the type of pitcher who can give them close to 230 innings in a season.

Following Tanaka will be some combination of CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Luis Severino, Luis Cessa, and Chad Green. Pineda has always had tantalizing potential, but has not been able to put it all together in the big leagues. The big right-hander struck out 10.6 per nine last year, but went 6-12 with a 4.82 ERA in 32 starts. This is the last year that Pineda is under contract with the Yankees before free agency, and he may have extra motivation to perform well in his walk year.

Veteran left-hander Sabathia will also have something to prove in the final year of a contract. He pitched surprisingly well last year, going 9-12 with a 3.91 ERA and throwing close to 200 innings. Sabathia will be turning 37 in July, but if he can put together another good season, he should still be able to find a job in 2018 and beyond.

Of the remaining options for the rotation, Luis Severino has the most upside. The young right-hander impressed in a cameo at the end of the 2015 season, going 5-3 with a 2.89 ERA in 11 starts. The Yankees threw him to the wolves last year, and the 23-year-old pitcher struggled. Severino was sent down the the minor leagues, and eventually came back up and pitched well in relief. If he is able to stay within himself, Severino has the potential to develop into a top starter. Given that they are not expected to contend, the Yankees should give him plenty of leeway in the rotation. Cessa and Green round out the best options for the rotation, and both showed flashes of potential last season. Neither projects as a future ace, but could be more than competent back-end starters in a rotation for a contending team.

Adam Warren and Bryan Mitchell could also be in the mix to start some games this year. Nine pitchers started a game for the Yankees last season, and that number could be just as high in 2017.

Lineup

For the Yankees, the 2017 season will be all about finding out exactly how good Gary Sanchez can be over a full season. In his rookie year, the catcher blasted 20 home runs in 53 games with an OPS of 1.032. He will not be able to keep up that torrid pace, but Sanchez could be in line to hit 40 home runs in a division full of small parks.

Some of the familiar faces from last year’s lineup are gone with Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez being put out to pasture. DiDi Gregorious and Starlin Castro remain solid up the middle. One of them could just be keeping the seat warm until top prospect Gleyber Torres breaks through.

In the outfield, Brett Gardner remains solid. He’s good for a line in the neighborhood of .260/.350/.400 with 15 home runs and 15 steals. Perhaps not ideal production from a corner outfielder, but Gardner is a scrappy veteran who can influence the youngsters in the clubhouse. Jacoby Ellsbury will likely always be a disappointment until he plays out the end of his $153-million contract.

The Yankees will get to find out this year if Greg Bird can bounce back from missing the entire 2016 season. He hit 11 home runs in 46 games in 2015, and was the hot item in New York until Sanchez came along and made his .871 rookie OPS look pedestrian. The Yankees will also give Aaron Judge plenty of opportunities in right field. He looked completely lost at the plate after being called up last year, but has toned down his swing in an effort to make more consistent contact.

Adding Matt Holliday to DH and Chris Carter to split time at first base with Bird gives the Yankees two more proven power bats. In a small ballpark like Yankee Stadium, there’s no reason not to load up on hitters who can roll out of bed and hit 20 home runs. Carter strikes out a ton, but still gets on base at a decent clip. Moving to the American League should help Holliday stay healthy as his career winds down.

The Yankees also have several quality players who can come off the bench, including Rob Refsnyder, who may never get a fair shot at starting, Ronald Torreyes, and Aaron Hicks. With a full season from Sanchez and the return of Bird, the Yankees should put up more than the 680 runs that placed them 12th in the American League last season.

Bullpen

Brian Cashman played his hand perfectly last season. First, he rented Aroldis Chapman when his value was at an all-time low. Ethics of trading for a pitcher accused of domestic abuse aside, the Yankees got the hardest thrower in baseball without giving up any prospects with a big-league future. When it became clear that the Yankees were not making the playoffs, Chapman was flipped for Torres. Then, as was probably always the plan, Chapman re-signed with the Yankees for $86 million.

In Chapman and All-Star setup man Dellin Betances, the Yankees have one of the most devastating one-two punches in the league to take care of the last two innings. It’s getting to those two that could prove to be problematic for the Bronx Bombers.

The Yankees acquired veteran right-hander Tyler Clippard from Arizona at the deadline. He had struggled to start the year, but posted a 2.49 ERA in 29 appearances after the trade. Clippard has one of the best changeups in the league, and also has closer experience. He could prove to be a very good bridge to Betances and Chapman.

The rest of the middle-relief crew for the Yankees is up in the air. Pitchers like Adam Warren and Bryan Mitchell will handle the bulk of the middle innings if they do not stick in the rotation. Overall, the team used 29 pitchers last year, with many of them shuffling between Triple-A and the bullpen.

Manager

Joe Girardi doesn’t get enough credit for the job he does as a manager every year. When you manage the Yankees, you are expected to win every year, and no one pats you on the back for pulling out a few extra wins from one of the most expensive rosters in the league. It hasn’t always been easy for Girardi in the Bronx, and many of the high-priced veterans ownership gave him have not panned out. Not much blame can be put on his shoulders for those misses.

Girardi was tested by the decision to rebuild at the deadline last year, and he pulled his club through it very well. The Yankees did not give up and trudge through the final two months of the season. Instead, they pushed back into playoff contention with a newfound energy.

The veteran manager can be a bit “by the book” at times with his strategic moves, but he has done a very good job dealing with the pressure of managing in the Big Apple. Girardi has shown so far that he is in fact the right man to lead the young roster into the next great era of Yankee baseball.

X-Factor

Michael Pineda may be the biggest enigma in baseball. He led the AL in strikeouts per nine last year at 10.6, but had a 4.82 ERA and a losing record. Over the past two years, he is just 18-22 with a 4.60 ERA. Yankees fans keep hoping the pitcher who went 5-5 with a 1.89 ERA in 13 starts back in 2014 finds a way to show up in 2017.

Early indications out of Yankee camp are that Pineda is locked in and ready to have a big year.

"“We really believe in Michael. I just think that last year some of it was he couldn’t finish innings and then he had some bad luck at times,” Girardi said. “But I think this guy’s really big for us this year, he really is.”"

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Even with his dominant stuff, Pineda struggles to put away hitters. He loses his focus on the mound, and his conditioning has been an issue. Pineda has a dominant slider, a pitch that opponents batted just .187 against last year with 146 strikeouts, but his cutter was hit to the tune of .347. He throws hard, but does not generate many empty swings on his heater. If Pineda can set hitters up early and get to his slider more consistently, he will have a very big year for the Yankees.

Prediction

The Yankees will most likely miss the playoffs again in 2017. It’s hard to project their pitching staff much higher than the middle of the league, and the offense will scuffle at times with a handful of young hitters being asked to carry the load. If the starting pitchers are out of the game in the fifth and sixth inning too often, the middle relievers will have a hard time getting the ball to Betances and Chapman with a lead.

With so many young and unproven players being counted on, the Yankees may get off to a slow start. Sticking with them and allowing them to piece it together in the big leagues will be key. This year is not about winning the World Series in New York, as hard as that may be for some to accept.

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All that being said, this will be a very competitive team once again in 2017. The Yankees showed great energy and fight down the stretch last year, and there are still enough quality veterans mixed in with the young studs to keep everyone focused for 162 games. The Yankees went a combined 24-33 against the top three teams in the AL East last year, but will put up more resistance this year. Expect anywhere from 82-85 wins.