The New York Yankees have always been the juggernauts of Major League Baseball. With their storied past and often unmatched payroll, there was a time not so long ago that it was laughable to even suggest that someone could beat them.
Until now.
In 2016 the Yankees finished with an 84-78 record and a 4th place spot in the American League East. That makes 2016 the Yankees’ worst season since 1992, when the team finished with a 76-86 record and a 4th place finish. It’s interesting – and telling – to note that the Yankees landed in 4th place in both years with such drastically different records; the ‘92 record was a losing record while the ‘16 record was a respectable winning record.
The Yankees have some work to do to return to the top spot in Major League Baseball. To understand the root of the problem, it’s important to take a look at where they were, where they are, and where they’re going.
As a San Diego native, I was in high school when the 1998 San Diego Padres had a magical season that culminated with a trip to the World Series. It was the Pads’ first trip to the World Series since 1984 (which I attended as a toddler), so San Diegans were thrilled when our team finally made it back. We hoped that the Padres might get a win, or maybe two, but even with the amazing ‘98 Padres roster with the likes of Tony Gwynn and Ken Caminiti, no one really thought we had a chance of winning the World Series. Why? Because we were playing the Yankees. In other words, we were screwed. (Incidentally, the Yankees won the 1998 World Series 4-0)
Every baseball team has an era, known for periods of great success. For the New York Yankees, there have been many eras, because the Yankees are a very successful franchise. Their lifetime won-loss record says it all: 10084-7648. That’s huge.
The Yankees have had long periods of continued success (say, for example, the 1950s through the mid-1960s, with nine World Series wins inside 15 years), but they have also had dry spells. It’s hard to classify this current period as a dry spell, but it’s definitely not their best time.
If you take a look at the Yankees from 1996-2016 you’ll see a tale of two very different teams.
From 1996 to 2007 the Yankees reached the postseason every year. They only had two seasons out of twelve in which they didn’t finish 1st in the AL East (they placed 2nd). They made 5 appearances at the World Series and came away with four World Series champions, including back to back to back wins in 1998, 1999, and 2000. Not coincidentally, Joe Torre was the Yankees’ manager from 1996-2007.
Then 2008 hit and Joe Girardi came on board as the new manager, and things changed for the Yankees. The ‘08 Yankees finished with an 89-73 record, putting them in 3rd place in the AL East, and they didn’t reach the postseason for the first time since 1994. 2008 was a turning point for the Yankees, because the subsequent eight seasons have been inconsistent.
Take a look at the past eight seasons:
2016: 84-78 record, 4th in AL East
2015: 87-75 record, 2nd in AL East, Lost ALWC
2014: 84-78 record, 2nd in AL East
2013: 85-77 record, 3rd in AL East
2012: 95-67 record, 1st in AL East, Lost ALCS
2011: 97-65 record, 1st in AL East, Lost LDS
2010: 95-67 record, 2nd in AL East, Lost ALCS
2009: 103-59 record, 1st in AL East, Won World Series
Obviously, 2009 was a blip on the radar with that World Series win, but the Yankees haven’t been back since.
Looking at the numbers, it’s not that the team has been playing poorly. They have had winning records in all of those eight seasons and they have had all-star players like Derek Jeter on the roster. Jeter’s retirement in 2014 didn’t adversely impact the team, because they turned around and made it to the American League Wildcard game in 2015. A trip to the postseason is a clear indication that the Yankees aren’t playing bad baseball.
So what could be causing this slump in New York?
Once again, the Yankees’ numbers aren’t awful. The trouble is that those numbers are now awful within the scope of the new American League East.
Over the past few seasons the American League East has gotten uber competitive. In 2016, the Toronto Blue Jays (89-73) won the Wild Card Game over the Baltimore Orioles (89-73), and the Boston Red Sox (93-69) lost to the Cleveland Indians in the American League Division Series.
The fact is, the Yankees haven’t been bad the past few seasons, it’s more that they just haven’t been as good as everyone else. The level of competition has risen over the years, and the Yankees are struggling to gain footing in a very competitive American League East.
And while the Yankees are competing with the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Orioles in the AL East, they’re also running into trouble in the rest of the American League. The Kansas City Royals, the Texas Rangers, and the Cleveland Indians are spending a lot of time at the top of the standings these days, and they’re making it difficult for the Yankees to break through.
The Yankees once spent more in payroll than anyone in Major League Baseball, but in 2016 they were second in payroll ($227,365,376) behind the Los Angeles Dodgers ($279,107,794). Rounding out the top five were the Red Sox ($215,416,336), the Detroit Tigers ($205,894,085), and the 2016 World Series Champion Chicago Cubs ($188,402,394).
Clearly, the times they are a changin’.
So when can we expect to see the New York Yankees leading the AL East again?
If only there was an easy answer to that question.
The Yankees have an uphill battle ahead of them. With other teams paying as much, or more, money than they are, the Yankees aren’t at the top of the list for the top prospects. But they’re still the New York Yankees, and they still have a pool of talent to choose from.
The 2017 projected lineup looks like this:
Catcher: Gary Sanchez (.299 AVG, 20 HR, 42 RBI, 1 SB, 1.032 OPS)
1B: Greg Bird (Career: .261 AVG, 11 HR, 31 RBI, 0 SB, .871 OPS)
2B: Starlin Castro (.270 AVG, 21 HR, 70 RBI, 4 SB, .734 OPS)
3B: Chase Headley (.253 AVG, 14 HR, 51 RBI, 8 SB, .716 OPS)
SS: Ronald Torreyes (.258 AVG, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 2 SB, .680 OPS)
LF: Brett Gardner (.261 AVG, 7 HR, 41 RBI, 16, .713 OPS)
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury (.263 AVG, 9 HR, 56 RBI, 20 SB, .703 OPS)
RF: Aaron Judge (.179 AVG, 4 HR, 10 RBI, 0 SB, .608 OPS)
The Yankees reacquired closer Aroldis Chapman from the Cubs, and they have CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka in the starting rotation. It’s not a bad lineup, but it’s not the best lineup either. There are no big standouts, but there is a lot of young talent to watch in 2017.
In fact, that’s the plan. Grow the young talent.
As the veteran players have left the team, they have left behind some very talented young guys to fill their cleats, including three guys under the age of 24 who will be starting on Opening Day. Those guys, incidentally, are Greg Bird, Aaron Judge, and Gary Sanchez. These three guys have made an impact over the course of the spring and their reward is a spot in the lineup. There are also a few pitchers hoping to make the rotation who are younger than 25, so by this measure anyone on the team in his mid-thirties should be applying for AARP.
Age jokes aside, with all of this young talent there is the concern that the Yankees are rebuilding, and that’s not exactly true. The Yankees see themselves as tweaking things. They’re going to play hard and expect results. They expect to win, despite the tough competition from other teams in the division with a more seasoned lineup.
Yankees fans don’t have to worry about their team facing years and years away from the postseason. With a few adjustments, this young and talented group could be taking the team to the postseason soon.
In 2016 the Yankees were nine games back from first place, and only five games away from second place. It’s not inconceivable that the Yankees can surprise everyone, but at the same time good things come to those who wait.
The Yankees know how to grow talent, so give this team a season or two (or three…) and there’s no question they will be contenders in the somewhat near future.