The rebuilding effort will continue for the Philadelphia Phillies, but with some new veteran faces to help lead the youngsters.
From 2007 to 2011, the Phillies were one of the best teams in baseball, winning five NL East crowns in a row and claiming the City of Brotherly Love’s first championship since the 1980s. Those five dominant years have been followed by five losing years, and the Phillies have averaged 92 losses over the last four seasons. Things went south in a hurry after the core of the World Series team aged itself out, but the farm system has been almost completely rebuilt. There are several elite prospects knocking on the door in Philly.
There have been signs of life the past two seasons for the Phillies. They were a .500 team at the end of May last year, and went 34-37 in the second half of 2015. The Phillies are slowly building back up to having a winning ballclub, and could take another step this year if the starting pitching continues to mature. By no means are they ready to contend, but the Phillies could be a much more competitive team for an entire 162-game slate rather than stretches here and there.
Pitching
The Phillies will start the year with five very competent starters in their rotation. Whether or not all five can make it through 30 starts healthy will remain to be seen. The young trio of Vince Velasquez, Aaron Nola, and Jerad Eickhoff have the potential to be very good. The Atlanta Braves are focusing their own rebuilding effort on acquiring as many pitching prospects as possible, but the Phillies already have three in the big leagues. Jeremy Hellickson is back after taking the qualifying offer, and is joined by Clay Buchholz.
Of the group, Velasquez has the most potential. As a rookie last year, he went 8-6 with a 4.12 ERA and 10.4 K/9. He has electric stuff, and threw a three-hit, 16-strikeout shutout in April last season. Velasquez has has had injury concerns hanging around his whole career, but if the Phillies can keep him off the DL, they have their future ace.
Jerad Eickhoff proved to be the most durable of the bunch last year, making 33 starts and throwing 197 innings. He went 11-14, but had a 3.65 ERA and was the most consistent starter on the team. Through 41 career starts, Eickhoff is 14-17 with a 3.44 ERA. He has excellent command and a big, biting curveball that has accounted for 134 of his 216 career strikeouts. Eickhoff’s biggest hurdle will be finding a way to limit home runs. He allowed more than two homers in eight of his starts last year.
Jeremy Hellickson and Clay Buchholz will slot into the third and fourth spots in the rotation. Hellickson quietly turned in a strong season in 2016 after three years lost to injuries and inconsistency. The former AL Rookie of the Year went 12-10 with a 3.71 ERA last year for the Phils. Hellickson was on the trading block in July, but the front office did not find a deal to their liking. They expected to take the first round pick after offering Hellickson the qualifying offer, but he took the $17.2 million instead of hitting the open market. With another strong season, the 29-year-old starter will be able to find a nice multi-year deal next winter.
Buchholz is an interesting pickup for the Phillies. He finally wore out his welcome in Boston after years of flashing ace potential before eventually ending up on the disabled list. Buchholz has a no-hitter on his resume, and made 16 starts with a 1.74 ERA in 2013 before landing on the shelf. He had a 3.26 ERA in 17 starts in 2015 before that season was cut short. Last year, Buchholz struggled at times, but was very good in August and September. He could prove to be an interesting trade chip at the deadline, especially if he pitches well.
Aaron Nola will round out the rotation. That he is now the number-five starter should show just how improved the Phillies rotation can be this year. Nola was a top pick in 2014 and breezed through the system. He was only able to make 20 starts last year before being felled by an elbow injury. Nola is just another top prospect for the Phillies with an outstanding curveball. he struck out 9.8 per nine last year. With less pressure thanks to the addition of Buchholz, Nola should be able to settle into the big leagues for a full season. He had a 2.88 ERA in April and May last year before falling off and ending the year with a 4.78 ERA.
If everything goes well — a very big if, indeed — the Phillies are looking at a quietly excellent starting rotation this season. They will not need to give over 30 starts to Jake Thompson and Adam Morgan, two names who combined to go 5-17 last year with an ERA close to six.
Lineup
There wasn’t much to get excited about last year when the Phillies came to the plate. They finished 14th in the NL in each of the triple-slash statistics — .240/.307/.384 — and last with an OPS of .685. The lineup was weighed down by Ryan Howard, who batted just .196/.257/.453 in over 350 plate appearances. The Big Piece is now gone, and the Phillies have made an effort to bring in a few veteran hitters who will provide a little more support to the young hitters in the lineup.
The one real bright spot offensively for the Phillies last year was the emergence of Odubel Herrera. The flashy outfielder batted .286/.361/.420 with 15 home runs and 25 stolen bases. He really made strides with his plate discipline and ability to draw a walk. Herrera drew 63 walks last year after taking a free pass only 28 times in his rookie year. He is a very exciting name atop this lineup.
The Phillies will continue waiting for the real breakout season for Maikel Franco, and this just may be his year. There is 40-homer potential in the third baseman’s bat, and he does not struggle to make contact like many young power hitters. Franco ran out of steam in the second half last year. After hitting 18 home runs before the All-Star Game, he hit only seven after the break with his OPS dropping from .813 to .637. Franco is still a very raw hitter who made his debut in the big leagues at the age of 22. The sky is the limit here.
Second baseman Cesar Hernandez enjoyed a very fine first full season of playing time after the departure of icon Chase Utley. He hit .294 with 17 stolen bases. Not much power from Hernandez, but he did have 11 triples. His double-play partner (until J.P. Crawford’s arrival), Freddy Galvis, hit 20 homers and stole 17 bases, but could stand to cut down his swing from time to time.
Former catching prospect Tommy Joseph emerged from years of trouble with concussions to make a splash at first base in the second half. He hit 21 home runs in only 107 games. Joseph is still only 25, and has plenty of power in his bat. Taken out from behind the plate for good, he can focus solely on hitting. Joseph stands to benefit the most from Howard’s departure, and the Phillies have to give him every opportunity to show his brief power surge last year was not a fluke.
In the corner outfield spots, the Phillies will trot out two established veterans, Howie Kendrick and Michael Saunders. Kendrick is the definition of a professional hitter, and Saunders was an All-Star last year before slumping in the second half. Kendrick will provide some real stability, while Saunders could be a steal for the Phillies if he can put together a whole season of strong production. Aaron Altherr and Roman Quinn are also in the mix for playing time in the outfield.
Behind the plate, Cameron Rupp and Andrew Knapp are just keeping the seat warm until top prospect Jorge Alfaro is ready for the big leagues. Alfaro got a taste of The Show last year, and will be back at some point later this summer. The bench players rounding out the roster do not warrant much mention — fringe big leaugers at best.
Bullpen
The bullpen is typically a major problem area for rebuilding teams, and the Phillies are no exception. Their relievers combined for a 5.05 ERA last season, good for 28th in all of baseball. Closer Jeanmar Gomez saved 37 games last year, but had a 4.85 ERA while allowing over 10 hits per nine. He does not have great strikeout stuff, and pitches to contact — not a recipe for success at closer.
The Phillies added two useful veteran relievers over the offseason. Pat Neshek and Joaquin Benoit have been around the block, and are both coming off respectable seasons. Benoit had a 2.81 ERA in 51 games last year, while Neshek turned in a 3.06 mark in 60 games. Benoit was particularly good after a midseason trade to the Toronto Blue Jays. He allowed only one earned run in 23.2 innings for the Jays. Neshek has been a bit more consistent over the course of his career. As with all middle relievers, Neshek and Benoit are prone to wild fluctuations in performance from year to year.
Hector Neris is the most exciting member of this bullpen. He struck out 11.4 per nine last year and had a 2.58 ERA in 80.1 innings. Neris has electric stuff and could profile as a closer in the future if he can better command his pitches. From there, a handful of fringe starters and long relievers will shuffle through the Phillies bullpen throughout the year. Not an amazing bullpen by any stretch of the imagination, but there should be considerably fewer headaches in the seventh and eighth innings this year with Benoit and Neshek in the fold.
Manager
The Phillies are pleased with the steadying leadership Pete Mackanin has brought to the clubhouse since taking over for Ryne Sandberg in 2015. Sandberg waited patiently for a chance to manage in the big leagues, but never seemed up for the rebuilding process. Mackanin has enthusiastically embraced the challenges that come with guiding a young roster through a long season. He’s more important for what he can do behind the scenes than any in-game decision.
Mackanin has a role similar to 76ers head coach Brett Brown. It’s not about wins and losses on the field for the Phillies this season, but rather the small wins that accumulate in the clubhouse or in side sessions and batting practice. Mackanin is doing a good job in a difficult role. If the Phillies eventually come out of this with a championship contender, Mackanin will have played a big part in it.
X-Factor
One of the worst trades in the history of the Phillies franchise saw them trade All-Star outfielder Hunter Pence to the San Francisco Giants for Tommy Joseph, Nate Schierholtz, and Seth Rosin. Former General Manager Ruben Amaro pulled the trigger on dealing Pence way too soon, and the return has been minimal to date. Joseph, a top catching prospect at the time, battled concussion after concussion behind the plate, but has finally broken through as a first baseman.
Joseph finally got an extended opportunity in the big leagues last season, and did not waste it. There is prodigious power in his bat, and he homered once every 15 at-bats in his rookie season. Joseph also showed a good ability to make contact, and struck out only 75 times in 107 games. He is tearing up the Grapefruit league, and does not appear to be a mere flash in the pan.
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The Phillies can never get back the ill-fated $125-million extension they gave Ryan Howard, but they may have finally found his replacement in Tommy Joseph. He will have to show he can sustain a similar pace over 162 games, but Joseph looks like the real deal, even if was a circuitous path to stardom.
Prediction
The Phillies have had stretches of decent baseball in each of the past two seasons. With an improved lineup and health in the rotation, there is no reason to expect them not to flirt with a .500 record in 2017. The biggest question is whether Velasquez, Nola, and Buchholz can stay healthy for close to 30 starts apiece. If that happens, the Phillies will be a real thorn in the side of the NL East.
The bullpen will still be problematic, but improved. Waiting for the inevitable breakout season for Maikel Franco is exciting, as is seeing if Tommy Joseph can approach 35 home runs over a full season. The tide will start to turn for the Phillies this year, but expect the front office to be very cautious with the young starters. There’s no real reason to push things this year, and 2018 should be the year the focus turns to winning.
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There is upside for the Phillies to flirt with more than 81 wins, but everything will have to go right. They are definitely a deep sleeper pick as Opening Day approaches. At the end of the day, look for this team to battle the Miami Marlins for third place, easily surpass last year’s win total, but ultimately fall a few wins short of .500.