Pittsburgh Pirates: 2017 MLB season preview

The Pirates enter the year on unsteady footing, still looking for answers on how they could slide so quickly from being a postseason mainstay.

Coming into last season, the Pittsburgh Pirates were progress personified; potential being more and more realized on an annual basis. They had come to count themselves among the among the winningest teams in baseball since 2014, the year where they broke the longest string of losing seasons in professional sports history. And 2015 had been the crown jewel of them all, winning 98 games and advancing the to National League Wild Card game for the second straight year, although a familiar frustration of losing the playoff qualifier had befell them once again.

But regardless of the fact, they were one of the most well-rounded, up and coming teams in the game and were poised to stay neck-and-neck with the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs in an airtight NL Central race.

However, that train went off the tracks in a wildly inconsistent 2016. The Pirates stumbled backwards, winning 20 less games than they had the year before and tumbling to a distant third place finish. Led by the unforeseeable struggles of franchise cornerstone Andrew McCutchen, the Pirates season was characterized by stops, starts, injury and setbacks.

Now they enter an all-important 2017 that can either be a bounce back season or a year where they restart the transition era that seemed to be so far behind them just a calender year ago. It is a season where the status of the team’s superstar, McCutchen, will be debated just as much the direction of the team is headed. Because in many regards, just as the rise of the team was aligned with his emergence, the decline could hinge on his future as well.

If the Pirates are to make sure their 2016 outcomes were an outlier as opposed to a new norm, it will take a collective resurgence from the Pirate roster. But a vintage McCutchen could go a long way towards making them the team that is the fourth winningest in the NL since 2013, even with their setback last summer.

Here’s where things stand for the Pittsburgh Pirates as the 2017 season is on deck.

Starting Pitching

The decline in the quality of the Pirates rotation from 2015 to 2016 was drastic. The the staff’s ERA rose over a run from 3.53 to 4.67, due in part to the drastic declines in efforts of Jeff Locke and Francisco Liriano, in addition to failures to replace the losses of J.A. Happ, A.J. Burnett and Charlie Morton. Add in injury issues to staff ace Gerrit Cole, who had three separate trips to the disabled list, and the turbulence around the starting rotation never settled.

Entering this year, the Pirates staff is still several parts of hoping for the best outcome. Cole turned in a strong spring and looks to have those injury issues behind him. A large part of adding consistency to the team as a whole will be if he can be the same man who won 19 games just two years ago.

But after he takes his turn, there are several arms that have to prove their staying power still. Ivan Nova was sensational last year after being acquired at the trade deadline, posting an undefeated record in August. If he can replicate the 3.18 ERA he carried as a Pirate, he would represent the consistency the entire rotation was void of a year ago.

Yet it is a pair of prized prospects making good in Pittsburgh represents perhaps the biggest turning point for organization this year. Jameson Taillon had a strong rookie campaign, posting a 3.38 ERA over 18 starts. Likewise, the team is hoping for its top prospect, Tyler Glasnow, to be able to make a significant contribution. He struggled with his command in his limited time in the Majors last year, but as his complete domination of the minors showed last season (1.93 ERA, 144 strikeouts in 116 innings) he has everything required to make a Rookie of the Year level impact this year. While he may not break camp with the Pirates, he is as big of a part of their plans as any arm they possess.

The Pirates will need for their youngsters to make good, because due to the lack of quality starting pitching on the free agent market this winter, the club was unable to bring much more to town this year. A collective of back of the rotation veterans in Drew Hutchinson, Chad Kuhl and Steven Brault make up the rest of their options, a far cry from what will be needed to make a significant climb this year. The upside is undeniable, but it is hard to bank on expecting each part to meet expectations for this year.

Bullpen

Two years ago, the Pirates bullpen was the best in the National League two years ago, posting an NL-best 2.67 ERA and converting 54 saves. Many of the components of that group have changed since, as the Pirates now are a collection of miscellaneous pieces with only three options who were a part of the team’s playoff run two years ago. However, with the questions that surround the starting staff, the pen’s durability will be an essential part of any success they are to find.

After years of establishing himself as an elite setup man, Tony Watson struggled in taking over the ninth inning after Melancon was dealt away last year. He converted 15 saves overall, but his ERA ballooned to 5.06 in September, the second month of the year where he posted an ERA over 5.00.

There are some proven options in the pen in Daniel Hudson, Antonio Bastardo, Juan Nicasio and Jared Hughes, but how it all comes together is yet to be seen. Felipe Rivero, who was part of the return for Melancon, showed promise, striking out 92 in 77 innings.

Lineup

Plagued by under performance and inconsistency, the Pirates were never able to replicate the speed/power magic that propelled them to becoming one of the most relentless attacks in the game in recent years. But it is worth reiterating because of just how important he is: everything depends on which Andrew McCutchen shows up. He will be adjusting to a new position this year, as Starling Marte will take over in center field and Gregory Polanco will move to left. As one of the most diversely talented performers in the game, McCutchen can hit anywhere between two and five on an everyday basis, but where he fits in will depend on what version of him shows up.

If he can remedy the near 70 point decline in his on-base percentage, he’ll be best placed further up again. However, if he is more parts the player he was last year, when he posted a .256/.336/.430 split line, along with an WAR that moved into the negative, he will would be best placed as an albatross of a fifth option, that will become one of the most heavily shopped players in the game by GM Neal Huntington.

Otherwise in the Pirate outfield, business is good. Starling Marte took strides to become one of best all-around players in the game last year, checking in among the top 10 in the NL in batting average and stolen bases, while winning a second Gold Glove in as many years. Likewise, Polanco took significant strides last year as well, but was unable to keep up the pace throughout a lackluster second half.

Further complications arose for the Pirates this spring, as they could be without Jung Ho Kang, whose Visa was revoked due to his an alleged hit and run DUI incident in Seoul this winter. He posted 21 home runs in just over 100 games last year, and would be a significant loss.

One thing that is on their side is versatility, as Josh Harrison, David Freese and John Jaso all represent a veteran presence that can slide into different roles as needed. If they can have steady performances, along with a healthy Francisco Cervelli behind the plate, the Pirates can manage to be a steady attack, at the very least.

Last but not least, rookie Josh Bell and outfield prospect Austin Meadows stand to be major contributors for the club down the road, and each will get the opportunity to make an impact this year.

Manager

Clint Hurdle is without a doubt one of the best in the business, and as big of a reason why things did not completely spiral out of whack even further last season. For similar reasons, he could play a big part in trending this team towards its upside as opposed to another year of decline. He has a versatile lineup that plays to his strength of being able to exploit matchups and use his parts to their best potential.

Another great asset he has at his disposal is pitching coach Ray Searage, who can often find the best in a veteran that is looking to rediscover his best stuff, as well as speed along the development of young arm. Again, this bodes well to see a bounce back from Cole, as well as the best from Nova, Taillon and eventually Glasnow.

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With that being said, there is only so much impact that a manager can have. He can’t force Visa’s through customs, just as he cannot magically heal arms and make aging veterans perform as if they are young again. Hurdle has a roster that is experienced together and familiar with him, and has gone through both the peaks and valleys together. It is the type of story that if it can be turned around, much credit will go the manager, as it should. Hurdle is right man for the job that lies ahead.

X-Factor

Again, we revisit McCutchen here. He proved his value in the worst possible way a year ago, by seeing his team spiral downwards, in lock step with his production. When he won the 2013 NL MVP, the Pirates improved by 15 games, while he hit .317/.404/.508, with 21 home runs and 27 stolen bases. Over the next two seasons, he combined for a .303/.406/.514 split, while driving in 90 runs and scoring another 90 himself. Over that complete time table, the Pirates averaged 93 wins per season.

Next: Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon are keys to Pirates contending

The downfall of the Pirates season does not fall squarely at his feet, but the inability to stabilize it along the way is something that he could have played a major part in alleviating. In a year where his future is less clear than it has ever been, his role on the team changing and his relationships with management potentially strained as well, McCutchen will have significant challenges ahead of his effort to regain the footing in his career. However, if the Pirates are to return to the fight in the NL Central, it is a must.

Prediction

Putting who the Pirates are in focus is a tough proposition, mixed in with equal parts proof and potential. There are strengths and weaknesses that could sway severely in one way or the other very easily. Simply put however, they are a very talented collective that needs each of its biggest parts to perform at peak levels again for them to compete in an NL Central that has distinctly different classes among its ranks.

Pittsburgh is the defined middle class of the Central; better than both the Cincinnati and Milwaukee, but a step behind St. Louis and definitely the Cubs.

The expectations should lie with the Pirates improving slightly from their 2016 slide to get past the .500 mark, but still falling short of the Cardinals again and outside of the Wild Card picture.